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Royals Mitch Maier and Lee Judge see how a ball might become lodged under the outfield wall padding
Kansas City Royals outfielder Mitch Maier and Lee Judge see how a baseball can become lodged under the padding of the outfield wall at Kauffman Stadium. May 19, 2011 (Video by John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star)
What's wrong with Soria?
Lee Judge
None
OK, so what’s wrong with Joakim Soria? I don’t know. The latest rumor is that he’s hurt, and that rumor is brought to you by sports talk radio. The idea that the guys who do these daily talk-a-thons would know this is kind of ridiculous. These guys are rarely at the stadium and would seem to be the last ones to have inside information. (A notable exception is Robert Ford of 610 Sports radio. He’s there every day and probably knows as much as anybody.)
Unfortunately, when you have to talk for four hours straight, wild rumors and speculation can come in handy. About a third of the nutty stuff Glenn Beck says probably comes out of his mouth because he is on the air about 27 hours out of every 24. Radio guys need something to talk about. I just wouldn’t take what they say to the bank.
I’ve been told that Soria’s healthy, I’ve been told that his problem might be his pitch selection, and I’ve been told that Joakim has set such high standards for himself that people are unnecessarily freaking out over the kind of bump in the road all players hit eventually. But Joakim does have a 5.12 ERA and he has blown as many saves this season as he did all of last year.
The thing I’ve noticed, and Frank White touched on this, is that Joakim seems to be behind in the count more often than in the past. That’s just an impression, and someone might have some actual facts to prove or disprove this theory.
On the other hand, when Joakim gave up the game-winning home run Tuesday night to Adam Jones, he had Jones down in the count 0-2. Joakim got him there by throwing a 92 mph cutter, then a 93 mph cutter and gave up the home run on another 92 mph cutter, which looked pretty much center-cut. So that gets us back to the pitch selection and control issues.
Anyway, the point of this is that I don’t know why Soria has blown three saves and neither do a whole lot of other people. it’s just not good business for them to admit it.
Wilson didn’t help
In the ninth inning, Wilson Betemit played a ball to his backhand side that turned into a double. It was a shot, but one he probably should have been able to get in front of. If he actually fields it and throws out the runner, Felix Pie, Soria strikes out the next guy for the third out and we’re not having this conversation.
Should Crow be a starter?
According to Jason Kendall, who knows a thing or two thousand about pitchers, Aaron Crow shouldn’t be switched to the starting rotation at this point. Jason thinks that if you want Crow to start, you make that decision next season in spring training. That gives Aaron a chance to work up the arm strength that is necessary to go from pitching one inning at a time to pitching seven.
Last season, the back end of the Royals’ bullpen was a problem. Joakim Soria was lights out, but getting him the ball with a lead required an eighth-inning guy who was consistent. Crow has filled that spot. So if Joakim can get himself straightened out, the other team has only seven innings to win the game because most of the time, if they’re not ahead by the eighth inning, it ain’t gonna happen. Jason also said the best 1-2-3 back end of the bullpen he ever saw was in Houston, when the Astros had Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner. Back then, if you weren’t beating the Astros by the sixth inning, the game usually was over, Jason said.
So the Royals have to decide if Crow is worth more at the back end of the bullpen or in the starting rotation, but that decision probably should wait for 2012.
Don’t forget Duffy
It was a better outing by Danny Duffy this time. He made it through 5 1/3 innings, walked three batters but struck out six. What I really noticed was better control of the running game, including a slide step at times. Danny still seems to work pretty slow, and I’ll ask about that when the Royals return to Kansas City, but this looked like a step forward.
Up close and personal
When Baltimore was here in Kansas City, I happened to stand next to Baltimore catcher Matt Weiters, and the guy is stinking huge. I’m not a shrimp, and if I choose to stand up straight (an event that’s getting more rare with age), I’m 6-0. But a guy who’s 6-5, 225 pounds makes you feel like Billy Barty (Google that reference).
Anyway, the point is that these guys you see on TV are much bigger than you think. (A fact that has probably dawned on inebriated fans on occasion after one too many heckles.) Mitch Maier is big. Nate Adcock is big. In fact, just about every player (Tim Collins aside) impresses you with his size.
I was sitting against the backstop with Royals bench coach John Gibbons when pitcher Bruce Chen ran by, and even Bruce is big. I pointed that out to Gibby, and he laughed and said, “It’s a man’s game.”
Not when I played it.
The outfielder’s definition of ‘stuck’
(Since we’re playing Baltimore and Adam Jones again, it seemed like a good time for this video.)
OK, so Trevor Vance gave me permission to go onto the playing surface (you have to ask) because I’m going to make some outfield fundamentals videos with Mitch Maier. Mitch and I started talking about the ball that Mike Aviles hit that got “stuck” under the pads of the outfield wall. We decided to see whether a ball actually could get stuck.
So here’s what I found out: An outfielder’s definition of “stuck” is a lot different than yours or mine.
I had made fun of the idea that the ball was so stuck that a full-grown center fielder couldn’t pull it out, but according to Mitch, that’s not the point. Sure, the ball could have been pulled out, but unless the outfielder runs up, looks down and sees the entire ball laying there, with free access, the outfielder is going to throw his hands up and call for a rule-book double.
Mitch’s position is that he shouldn’t have to do anything extra to pick up the ball. If he has to bend deeper, or reach under (which he had to do in this case … watch the video) the outfielder is at a disadvantage. If he reaches in and the ball is stuck harder than he thought and it doesn’t come out on the first try, he probably won’t get the ruling, so the smart play is to throw your hands up … and that’s exactly what Mitch said he would have done in that situation.
So the Royals can raise the pads (they can’t lower them because they would get wet and rot), but if a ball even comes to rest gently under a pad and the outfielder doesn’t have free access, it’s not going to change the ruling.
Gordon
Francoeur
Butler
It seems to me Soria has fallen "in love" with his off speed stuff and his command of his fastball has suffered. Needs to get back to spotting the fastball in the proper locations like he has in the past.
I actually think it is the opposite. Last year it seemed like he would throw his curveball more often (this year it seems to be getting hit more) and would even throw his changeup and slider (both pitches which I love and think he needs to throw more) more frequently. If I remember right he would get a lot of fastball strikeouts looking last year because the batter had no idea what was coming. To me, it seems he has been trying to be like Mariano Rivera and throw the cutter all the time. Rivera locates his cutter so he is very effective with just that pitch. Jones was down 0-2 but those first two cutters weren't located that great either. He seems to be throwing a ton of cutters (and not locating them on the corners in and out like Rivera) and not very much offspeed to me. (Yes if he is falling behind more he would most likely throw more cutters or fastballs to try to get back even in the count... but even when he is ahead he seems to be throwing more fastballs or cutters) His increased walks also leads me to believe he doesn't have great location with his fastball and/or cutter
Lee - in terms of the balance you talk about, I agree it is best to do our best to try to keep clear eyes and hold on to the good here (I get just as disgusted and mad as anyone right when the bad things are happening). First the bad - Betemit can't stop hard grounders at third, Mike Aviles is still having trouble turning double plays, we did not get the job done (twice) with the bases loaded to put the game away, and Soria is going through the first slump of his career. The good - Alex may turn out to be a good or even very good lead off hitter, Danny Duffy is looking like he can turn out to be a good to very good starter, Frenchy may turn out to be a keeper, Alcides hit a couple of balls well, may turn out to be a decent hitter, and Hosmer is the real deal, may not be Babe Ruth from day one, but looks like he can turn out to be a very good or even excellent player. All in all, still good/very good reasons to stay excited about the (hopefully fairly near) future.
I think Soria does not have command of his 69MPH curve ball that used to be his "out" pitch. He used to make hitters look foolish with that pitch but it has been a long time since I have seen him strike anyone out with it.
IIRC, the first batter (Mark Reynolds) was ahead in the count and Soria threw one right-down-broadway-at-92mph and he missed it like it was thrown 192mph. That same pitch (albeit a bit higher in the zone) wound up in the seats when Jones was batting.
Either way, a moot point, as Betemit once again proved why he isn't an everyday starting 3B. If he makes one of those two plays (should have made both) then the game was over, and we are talking about how Soria is BACK!
You guys bring up several good points, but it demonstrates that none of us really know what the deal is with Soria. I haven't kept track of what pitches he's thrown when, but I noticed last night he tried his rainbow curve, missed badly and never used it again.
And let's not forget the catcher. I've got no clue, but I'll bet someone has his numbers when caught by Pena, Treanor or Kendall. It would be interesting to see what they are.
Steve, I thought you hit several nails on the head: Aviles still struggles with the DP footwork, Betemit failed to handle a hot shot and the team failed to tack on runs when the opportunity presented itself.
There's still plenty to be excited about, but you can't lose games like last night's and still contend. Those are the ones you have to have.
If you want to know about Soria's stats check royalsauthority.com.
They have a good break down of his appearances and starting off 3-0 vs 0-2...it does not look good compared to his historical averages.
Thanks, Sean, I'll check it out.
I have no idea what's wrong Soria either. But if history of the Royals is to be any "judge", I would bet he goes on the DL by the beginning of next week. I can't count how many times we've heard from Royals management over the years that a player is fine, "they just need to work out a few kinks", then they go on the DL a few days later. At least this year, we have Crow to step in and be the interim closer when Soria does go to the DL.
David: Yeah, I've seen the same pattern: assurances that a player is fine and then a sudden visit to the DL. That can be the club (they don't need the opposition knowing the true state of things which might force them to prepare for a pitcher they aren't going to see) or it can be the player (insisting he's fine thinking he can play through whatever discomfort he's experiencing).
Lee, the sports talk guys on the radio say stupid things just to incite phone calls. Their job, I believe, is to stir up controversy. I listen to 610 in the morning and then hear something incredibly dumb and then change to 810 to hear something just as dumb. I would liken them to political cartoonist's (kidding, well, sort of)...publish a photo that generates some sort of chatter and you sell papers.
Anyway, to get off that topic....we're all concerned about Soria and what's going on. He hasn't blown this many saves this early in about 4 years or so but he still had a good year then. No reliever is going to be a "shut down" guy every time out there. He's making mistakes but he's getting guys out at times. I think his cutter isn't as sharp as it once was, his curve is almost non-existent. I also wonder if signing him last year to a new contract sort of "de-incentified" him (Butler too). I think over the course of the season that Soria will be fine, but you're right, that game last night is the kind of game we have to win if we want to contend
Scott: First the important stuff, cartoons. People ask me if I ever say something in a cartoon just to get people stirred up and the answer is no. What I really believe seems to do the trick, so I don't have to start saying crazy things just to get attention.
But the point I was trying to make in this case is you don't see those guys out at the park on a daily basis and it's unlikely anyone would confide in them unless they were. I've now come to understand how little any reporter who 'parachutes in' to a clubhouse probably knows. The national guys don't know the inside workings of 30 different teams, it's just impossible. So I'm just saying take it all with a grain of salt.
As for Soria, once again, no clue, but I'm sure the Royals are looking at everything they think will help.
Lee, thanks for the kind words about my work on 610. For the record, I don't believe Soria's hurt and I think you do a great job.
As for Soria's pitch selection, check this out from Fangraphs: http://bit.ly/ijlTE1. Lots of folks talk about the curve being Soria's out-pitch, but that simply isn't true and hasn't been true for at least two years. Can anyone name a closer who used a curveball as an out-pitch? You can't, because a curve is very difficult to control and, thus, hard to throw at any time in any count.
Robert: Glad you showed up! It's part of my plan to get more readers: I'll just mention them by name one at a time.
It took me awhile to figure it out, but you need to be out there all the time to have an idea of what's going on with the team (and even then it's not easy). There's nothing wrong with talking sports, but it's the guys that put in the hours that have the best feel for things and you definitely do your homework.
(OK, have we complimented each other enough?)
I don't know about the numbers, but I'd agree with the idea that a curve (especially a big one like Joakim's) is too hard to control to throw when your back is against the wall. It's probably best utilized when he's ahead and can waste a pitch.
I know what you meant, I just wanted to drag the cartoon boy into it ! But I think you get my point as well...talk show guys are about ratings. You never see them around the park much at all