Games » Detroit Tigers
May13Why you have to play small ball
Lee Judge
None
If you’re going to beat the best pitchers, you need to play small ball. Justin Verlander proved that again Friday night. When a guy is this good, three-run home runs are in short supply. Waiting for a couple of walks and a home run is like waiting for Donald Trump to show modesty; it ain’t gonna happen.
The better the pitcher, the fewer the hits. Hoping to get three in an inning, or a walk and two hits, or two walks and a hit or three of any darn thing isn’t a very good game plan. You need to be able to move runners with outs and you’ll have no shortage of those.
(I believe you have to be able to play one-run baseball in the playoffs. The further you go, the better the pitching gets. When I read “Moneyball” I thought, “Sounds like a great way to win 90 games and lose in the first round.”)
What you mainly do on offense is make outs. There are people who talk about how precious outs are and how they must be preserved (let’s all stand around, maybe nothing bad will happen), but every time you lose a game you’re absolutely guaranteed to make 27 outs. You can’t really save them, they will get used. So how about getting something out of them? How about making productive outs?
Case in point: Down 3-1 in the 8th inning, Matt Treanor leads off with a double. Alcides Escobar grounds out to third, Treanor can’t advance because the ball is hit in front of him, Chris Getz makes the second out 4-3 and Melky Cabrera flies out to end the inning. If Escobar hits the ball to the right side, Treanor advances and then scores on Getz’s groundout (they wouldn’t bring the infield in unless Treanor was the tying run).
Now the Royals would be down 3-2 in the 9th which Alex Gordon led off with a single. He then stole second while Billy Butler was at the plate. If Billy had been able to hit the ball to the right side (he struck out), Alex would’ve advanced to third and scored on Jeff Francoeur’s fly ball or at least tried to score. Game tied 3-3.
To be fair, both Escobar and Butler appeared to be trying to hit the ball the other way, they just didn’t get it done. When you face a No. 1 guy at the top of his game, you won’t get many chances to score runs. The Royals missed two in this game.
(I realize there are knowledgeable baseball fans who will disagree with me. Fine, you get to go to the comment section and tell me why I’m wrong. But be funny while you do it.)
You/Me
In the 6th inning with Chris Getz at the plate, Alcides Escobar took off from first. Chris hit the ball to the right side and, unlucky for him, the shortstop was covering second, so the second baseman stayed home. If the second baseman was covering the bag, the ball would’ve gone through for a hit and Esky would’ve been on third.
When there’s a runner on first, before every pitch, the middle infielders shield their mouths with their gloves and exchange a sign to decide who’s covering the bag if the runner takes off. Whoever is making the call either opens his mouth (you) or closes his mouth (me). It resembles the way your mouth looks when you say those words. If the pitch is a heater (and there are factors that might change this), the opposite side fielder will stay home. If it’s off-speed, the pull side fielder will stay home.
Since Chris is a lefty and the pitch was a curveball (more likely to be pulled), the second baseman stayed home and Getz lost a hit.
The other half of the game
Everyone is excited about Eric Hosmer’s bat and they should be, but don’t miss what he’s doing on defense. Last Sunday when Wilson Betemit launched a Superman throw (Up, up and away!), Hosmer didn’t get the out, but kept the ball on the infield. He also made a couple of nice plays in New York. In this game he knocked down a throw from Alex Gordon (he was throwing behind a runner) and helped Alcides Escobar turn another web gem with a stretch.
Last season some people objected to Ron Polk’s system, saying it favored catchers and middle infielders (you’re right, it does, but I think he was trying to demonstrate what a good defender up the middle does for a team). I disagreed with people who said a first baseman had little chance to score points defensively. First base handles the ball defensively more often than anyone but the catcher. Every time someone bounces a throw, the first baseman has a chance to score points. Billy Butler had 16 defensive points all of last season, Hosmer already has six.
I’ve written a lot about what a catcher that blocks well does for a pitcher’s confidence: the pitcher can throw his nastiest stuff and believe his teammate will handle it. Hosmer is now doing the same thing for the infield: they just have to get it in the vicinity and he’ll will take care of them.
A new stat
How about a new stat? RKO. Run kept out. If they kept this statistic, Matt Treanor would have another one with a textbook block of home in the 3rd inning. Matt kept Austin Jackson from touching home plate with his left foot while catching the ball from Francoeur/Hosmer. Whenever you think of RBIs or hits on the offensive side, ask what the player does for you on the defensive side. Treanor and Escobar don’t need to drive as many in if they can keep some out. So far they have.
The running game
When the Royals are home, Jason Kendall calls the defensive running game. He lets the pitcher and catcher know when to go over, pitch out or hold the ball in the set. It’s one less thing for the pitcher to worry about. When the Royals are on the road, John Gibbons does the job. There may be more I don’t know about, but that means at least three guys are giving signs from the dugout on defense: Eddie Rodriguez for the infield, Doug Sisson for the outfield and Kendall or Gibbons for catcher and pitcher. Lots going on out there.
Hochevar
Cabrera
Escobar
agreed, so why didn't escobar bunt in the eighth?
Agreed, Alcides should bunt in the 8th if that is a higher percentage of getting the runner over to 3rd, would have gotten us within one. As bad a hitter as Alcides should work 4 extra hours every day if that is what it takes to be a good hitter. And you are right, other key is that Billy had to get Alex to third, even RBI guys have to be able to get that done when the small ball game is on the line against great pitching or in the playoffs. Excellent points.
Yup, I'm with you. If I were with the team I'd ask Ned about it. It's never that it hadn't occurred to them and you usually hear something interesting that you didn't know, but Esky bunting in the 8th seemed like an obvious one.
Yost might have been playing for two there, not wanting to have to get a run off their closer, but when you get so few opportunities I'd say grab a run while you can and worry about the 9th in the 9th.
Of course that may be why I'm a cartoonist and not a major league manager.
A successful sac bunt actually lowers a team's chance to score runs. Look it up on that Internet thing all the cool kids are talking about.
Yeah, I've seen those numbers and remain unconvinced. I've found a great many of those statistics misleading or misapplied and this is one of those times.
As was pointed out (if you start talking specifics instead of vague generalities) two well-placed bunts would've resulted in two runs in this game.
It's that thing called baseball and it's what all the cool players are are talking about.
At some point in the near future I should expand on what I mean by misleading or misused statistics.
I know some of you must be big fans of advanced metrics and I should clarify what I think about them and let you make your counter-arguments.
The short version is I think they're fine and often interesting, but too many people have the habit of taking a perfectly good number and making a wild leap of logic that lands on unsupported conclusion.
(Wow, got a lot out of THAT metaphor, didn't I?)
When I get a chance I'll write more about the subject and let you know what a math professor friend of mine had to say on the subject.
For now, I'm taking the evening off.
A couple of thoughts ....
First, Alex might not have been able to steal second in the ninth had he been the tying run; they would have been paying a lot more attention to defending the steal with a one run lead.
Billy definitely should not have been trying to move the runner over in the ninth. Alex's run means we lose by one; his only focus should be getting on base. Once the tying run is on base, now maybe you are thinking about productive outs.
I agree with you that people make huge leaps of logic with statistics. They are good and useful tools, but we all need to exercize some humility. The people who do this for a living at the highest level have thought about every scenario I am conjuring from my couch, and probably a couple thousand more. So when I think the manager is making a clear mistake - not pinch-hitting Betemit for Escobar in the first game against the Yankees is the clearest example I can think of right now - I would rather find out what Yost was thinking rather than just yell and scream about what an idiot he is.
Which is not to say we shouldn't criticize. But just to say I wish we all started with the attitude that "I might not have thought of everything."
Curtis: Absolutely right, you can play 'what if', but it's unfair to change one event and then assume all the other events would stay the same. (Weren't you people paying attention when the guys on Star Trek went back in time? Geez, do your scientific research!)
And you're right, if Alex had been the tying run the Tigers would've played things differently. And the only way Billy should've been trying to move Alex is if Alex were the tying run. Down by two in the 9th Billy needed to try to drive Alex in and get on himself. He may have thought the best chance of that was going the other way (which he appeared to be trying to do). There may have been a gap in right that wasn't apparent watching the game on TV.
The point I was attempting to make is that against the better pitchers a team needs to make productive outs since hits and walks will be hard to come by. If the Royals had made a productive out in the 8th (getting them within one) then productive outs in the 9th would've made sense.
Finally, your point about humility is one we should all remember (especially cartoonists with websites). The people who do this for a living have every possible piece of information at their disposal (they keep stats, too). They've been doing this all their lives and know things we don't.
As I've said before, you don't have to agree with them, but the idea that you've thought of something they haven't is a longshot. Reading a Bill James book or visiting a website can make you more informed and get you to ask better questions, but it's an unlikely substitute for 30 years in the game.
The beauty of this website, for both you and me, is that I can go ask exactly what they were thinking and find out what went in to the decisions we watched.
When they're in town.
On the road, I'm just guessing like everybody else. Thanks for your input, Curtis, well timed.