Games » Baltimore Orioles
May3Why getting two runners thrown out was the right thing to do
Lee Judge
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Let’s talk about base running and, specifically, the base running in the second inning of this game.
Billy Butler led off the inning with a walk. Jeff Francoeur singled, and Billy moved to second. With nobody out, the rule is be cautious. If you stop the runner at third, you have three chances to get him home. So when Wilson Betemit doubled, Billy scored, but Frenchy was held at third. (The right call: You can’t send him unless you’re sure.)
Here’s the rule: With no outs, you have to be 100 percent sure, with one down, 67 percent, and with two down, 33 percent … and there are 10,000 exceptions.
Next, Mike Aviles hit a shot off the pitcher that rolled into left. Francoeur scored, and Wilson advanced to third, once again being held up because scoring was not a sure thing. Meanwhile, Aviles hustled and turned a single into a double. Still nobody down.
Brayan Pena hit a sacrifice fly to right. Aviles did the right thing with no outs: He went back and tagged second and made it to third. With one down, the offense gets more aggressive. A third of your outs are gone, so the Royals put on the contact play. (The runner on third breaks for home if the ball comes off the bat at a down angle.) The contact play is used with one down or none down if there are men at first and third (which keeps the offense out of a double play).
OK, Aviles broke for home, and unfortunately the ball was hit at the third baseman. (Remember, if you try to read where it’s going, it’s too late to score … the ball’s hit on the ground and you take your chances.) Aviles is out at the plate.
With two outs, the offense gets really aggressive about getting two places: home, because if you hold the runner up you need another hit and second base, because once you’re in scoring position you only need one more hit. Alcides Escobar hit into the fielder’s choice that made the second out and now stood on first. When you steal a runner with two outs, one of the questions you ask yourself is, “Do I want the hitter at the plate to lead off the next inning?”
Chris Getz was at the plate, batting leadoff, so the answer was yes. Alcides took off and was thrown out. So even though two runners were thrown out in the inning, every choice was logical and came at the right time. The Royals can’t freak out and stop running just because people get thrown out. Over the long haul (and often the short haul) what they’re doing on the bases will pay off.
I don’t get no respect
There are two groups of people in baseball that get dumped on constantly: middle relievers and third-base coaches. Middle relievers get dumped on because all they can do is put up a scoreless inning that tends to get lost between the starter and the closer. Third-base coaches get dumped on because if the runner is out by a step at home, the coach is considered an idiot. If the runner is safe, it was a great slide.
Which brings us to Eddie Rodriguez sending Jeff Francoeur to the plate the other day. The right fielder threw Jeff out, and the crowd booed. Fans have the luxury of waiting to see the results of the play and deciding how they feel about it. Coaches have to make decision before the results are known.
OK, so remember what we said at the top of the article. With two outs, you have to get very aggressive. There were two outs when Brayan singled with Jeff on second. In this situation, the key factor is the on-deck hitter, who was Alcides Escobar. Esky was hitting .232 at the time, and apparently his chances against that pitcher were worse than that.
There are times when the coach is sending a runner knowing that if the defense handles the ball correctly, the runner will be out. Sometimes the chances of bad throw or a dropped ball are better than the chances that the next guy will get a hit … and this was one of those times. Send Francoeur on the same play 10 times, and I’m betting he’s safe more than two times.
Eddie Rodriguez could have played it safe and put the pressure on Escobar, but he did his job and sent Frenchy home. Those were the best odds available, and Eddie took them. Next time it happens explain it to the guy next to you.
Pickoffs
A reader asked about four guys getting picked off in the first month, so I asked Royals first-base coach Doug Sisson about it. Doug said that the leads have to be aggressive to distract the pitcher, and a couple of them were on “first movement.” (When a team can’t read a lefty’s move, the runners sometimes roll the dice and go on first movement).
Mike Aviles getting picked and then scrambling back to first on Sunday was a different deal: Mike was timing the right-handed pitcher’s move, and after several deliveries Mike thought he had it down. He broke, and it was the one time the pitcher varied his time in the set.
In short, Aviles got caught trying to get a jump, but it wasn’t out of carelessness. You can’t have all the good stuff aggressive base running brings if you won’t take some of the bad. “Perfect is the enemy of good.” Try to be perfect (nobody ever gets thrown out), and you won’t be good (you’ll play station-to-station baseball).
Keyholing
“Keyholing” is when the hitter looks for one pitch in one spot (for instance, a fastball middle in) and makes his zone as big as a key hole. When Jeff Francoeur hit his home run in the sixth, he was keyholing. On a 3-1 count, Frenchy told me he was looking dead red, got the fastball and drove it out of the park.
Two innings later, Francoeur was in another 3-1 count, told himself they certainly wouldn’t throw him another fastball in the same situation and looked for something off-speed … and got another fastball. He was shaking his head over that one. That’s when a hitter thinks his way out of a hit. Never underestimate the ability of your opponent to do something dumb.
Two managerial moves
Brayan Pena hit a double with one out in the ninth. So why not pinch-run for him? Jarrod Dyson is still not 100 percent, so that leaves Mitch Maier as the other possible runner. Ned Yost said he was saving Mitch for the 10th inning in case Billy Butler got a hit. Without Dyson, they weren’t planning on stealing third, and Ned felt Brayan was fast enough to score on a single. (And Pena is faster than you’d think.)
So how about pinch-hitting for Chris Getz after Escobar reached base on an error? (An error that a lot of people thought was a hit, but that’s another argument.) Why send Getz to the plate with one down and men on first and third? The only righty on the bench was Matt Treanor, who has a lower average, Yost thought Chris had three good at-bats (none resulted in a hit) and Chris has some of the best situational hitting numbers on the team.
You know you can certainly disagree with managerial moves (and I have), but the idea that you spotted something that never occurred to a manager is almost nonexistent. Every time I’ve had a chance to talk with a manager after a decision I didn’t understand, there was always a credible explanation. Chris Getz was sent to the plate because Ned Yost thought that was the best option.
Great play, coach
After listening to Doug Sisson on outfield positioning, it occurred to me that every time we see a great play we need to give some credit to the coach that put the player in that position. And every time we see a player make a routine play, we need to give a lot of credit to the coach that put the players in that position.
Francoeur
Pena
Cabrera
Morning Lee....parts of your article definitely have a familiar ring to it ;-D. It was a good game over all last night and Francis did reasonably well. I didn't score the game last night (at home under the weather) but didn't he have two walks that turned into Ribbies? (top of the 6th) I wasn't sure if that stat was part of your grid, but I was happy to see today that it was.
Keep up the good insight into the plays and mindset that goes into playing at the major league level.
On the blogs that I follow there was a ton of people that were not happy with our outfielder signings in the off season. Yes we only have a small sample size of one month so far, but when you see all three of our outfielders combine for .300 average and average 4 assists so far this season, that's great numbers that need to keep happening to allow our team to stay competitive. Watching those arms sling the ball in to get people out on the base paths (Le cough, Frenchy, Le cough) or at home, I believe it definitely makes a difference to the opposing team.
I think it will be interesting to see how Baltimore plays in the next two games on their base running. Will they challenge our outfield again? Will they stick with the "money in the bank" single or risk a double? Etc.
Thanks, Kevin, sorry to hear you're feeling poorly. After I posted this last night (1:00 AM) I was thinking I'm spending 3/4ths of my time telling fans not to be mad about something that has them upset and about 1/4 of my time telling fans they should be critical of something they missed.
Try this: Jeff Francis walked Vlad Guerrero to lead off an inning. Vlad had 115 plate appearances this season without a walk...you really have to work to walk Vlad Guerrero.
I think the ratio of explanation vs. criticism this season has to do with how well the team is playing and, yeah, we now have s pretty good outfield.
(You could see a big grin on Frenchy's face when he threw out Lee. Nice to come through when you get challenged.)
By the way, I can't emphasize enough how easy it is to make a mistake on the scoring. It's 100% correct in the scorebook, but then goes to a paper grid during the game and an electronic grid later.
So I'm sitting at home, sometimes after a beer or three, filling out hundreds of boxes at 1 AM. I then get up by 6 AM, come in to draw a cartoon and hope to catch a nap before I go to the park, but often don't.
So if you spot a mistake, tell me (you were right, Kevin, Francis had two walks that scored, not one) and I'll get it fixed.
Maybe the beers are a bad idea.
Amazing, I had a five minute conversation/argument in the 3rd row behind third base on Betemit being held at third in THE SECOND INNING WITH NO OUTS. My whole section was upset with the third base coach for holding him there saying, "we should've taken a chance." I asked the gentleman in the first row,"what are the chances of scoring from third with no outs and first base open?" And so I ask this question now. (I can google it if your too busy, Lee) I think people tend to forget what a big league arm is capable of even if his momentum (Baltimore SS Andino) is taking him away from the plate.
Meh, I don't think beers are a bad idea...except in one circumstance...See Choo, Shin-Soo.
Out of curiosity, has anyone been logging Jeff Francis' fastball speeds over the course of this season? I'm curious to see if his arm strength is building to get it back up to the low-90s as it was a few years ago, or if he is kinda "stuck" where he is now.
Lee, "Maybe the beers are a bad idea." Maybe the "cartoon" is a bad idea. ;-)
I love your game analysis/report as much as I dislike your political views. I look forward to "Judging the Royals" each day & I am glad you have chosen to keep politics out of the baseball column.
Keep up the GREAT "game work"!
Lester: Uh, thanks?
Adi: I'm sure the Royals keep that kind of stuff. You could see for yourself at MLB.com. Find his games and click on 'wrap', then click on the little + sign next to the results. They'll give pitch and velocity.
Chad: the fans that thought Eddie should've taken a chance with 0 outs (no he shouldn't) are probably the same fans that booed when he sent Francoeur with two outs.
Also, the ball was hit back to the pitcher which probably meant Wilson (not the fastest runner in the world anway) got a lousy jump because he would've been headed back to the base and then would have to reverse direction once it caromed into the outfield.
What about pinch hitting for Getz? And he swung at the first pitch.
Re: Pena, his speed surprised me during the rundown. The player (was that the third baseman or shortstop?) caught him, but Pena made a race of it.
Who do you think will get sent down when Kendall is healthy?
Who do you think will get sent down when Kendall is healthy? -- That's an awesome question. I want to know what you think about this too.
The Royal's baserunning has improved but it's far from perfect. I see baserunners rounding second and looking over their shoulder instead of looking at the 3rd-base coach, or tagging up at third and looking at an outfielder 150 feet away instead of looking at the coach 10 feet away. They need to learn how to coordinate with the baseline coaches instead of making decisions on the fly.
Vinnie: I talked about why Ned didn't pinch hit for Getz in the notes above.
Shawn and Michael: I don't know who'll get sent down and I generally try to avoid playing GM. I can tell you there are always other issues besides how they're playing(contracts, options, etc.) that go into those decisions.
Alan: I don't doubt the base running isn't perfect, but it's much better than it was. When a runner approaches second he's on his own if the ball is in his view, but if it's back behind him the runner should be relying on the coach as you pointed out.
As for tagging at third: the runners are on their own. The feeling is that by the time a coach sees what is happening, verbalizes it, the runner hears it and takes off, a couple steps have been lost.
Smart third basemen will often wander into the line of vision of a tagging runner just to obscure the view and try to delay the tag.
we lead the league in stolen bases. Our issue will be starting pitching.