Games » Cleveland Indians
Apr28Two reasons the Royals are getting beat
Lee Judge
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Wow, this looked familiar. OK, there are two things pitchers do that get them whacked (actually, there are probably quite a bit more than two, but that’s all we’ll talk about for now).
Pitching up
Pitching behind…and you’re seeing both on this road trip.
Pitching up is pretty simple: “Up” is about mid-thigh to just above the belt. The hitter sees (and has a great chance to hit) the side of the ball, and that means line drives. Any higher and the hitter still sees the side of the ball, but has a hard time hitting it.
The barrel of the bat is above the shoulder and descending, so it’s hard to stay on top (a term you’ll hear) of a ball up around the letters. When a pitcher needs a pop-up or strikeout with a runner on third and less than two down, he can go up (but he better not miss) to get the desired results. So the Royals pitchers are “up”, but not up so high they can’t be hit. When a pitcher is “down,” the hitter sees the top of the ball and is likely to hit the top half for a grounder. (Here’s looking at you, Fausto Carmona!)
And grounders tend to be outs or singles: One has to be right down the line for extra bases. That’s why teams like tall pitchers and obsess about pitching on a downward plane. (It’s also why, when baseball wanted to give offense a boost, it lowered the mound.)
As for pitching behind: Good pitchers throw strike one (the best pitch in baseball) and then work toward the corners. Each pitch getting harder to hit. Bad pitchers throw ball one and then have to work back toward the middle of the plate, each pitch getting easier to hit.
Jeff Francis got lit up in the first inning of Wednesday’s game. Here are the counts when the ball was put in play and the results:
1-2 out/2-0 single/1-0 single/3-1 single/1-2 single/3-1 double/1-0 out/1-1 single/2-1 single and 3-2 out. Notice any pattern? With the exception of the 1-2 single (A flare Travis Hafner muscled in) and the 1-1 single, all the hits came when Francis was behind and had to bite off a bit more of the plate.
But if you start grooving fastballs 0-0 to get ahead, won’t hitters jump on them? Well, they can try, but in one five-year study of Division I baseball, the batting average on the 0-0 count was .186.
The longer a hitter stands there, the more information he gets about velocity, movement and location. Forcing the hitter to swing the bat as early as possible is to the pitcher’s advantage, but a lot of them fall behind in the count while trying to make perfect pitches.
And force is the right word. Good pitchers don’t avoid contact, they don’t allow contact, they force contact. (That’s right out of the Mental ABCs of Pitching, a guide to the thought process of successful pitchers.)
Ned Yost thinks the Royals have gotten sloppy about pitching up: getting away with it at home in a big ballpark and paying for it on the road. Geez, I hope he’s right, they need to get away with* something* in this next home stand.
These next nine games will tell us a lot about this season.
Pop fly areas of responsibility
That’s the actual name of a chart in baseball manuals, and it came into play in this game. Matt Treanor came out in front of the mound to catch a pop fly and Alex Gordon ran him off. The ball was probably Wilson Betemit’s, but he didn’t seem in any hurry to take change, so Gordon did.
Here’s the way it works: The center fielder can take any ball from a corner outfielder, any outfielder can call off any infielder, middle infielders can call off corner infielders (they have a better angle since they see the ball from the side), the shortstop can call off the second baseman, any infielder can call off the catcher and everybody treats the pitcher like Jerry Lewis should hold a telethon for him.
Nobody wants the pitcher handling the ball. He’s not out there every day and they generally don’t trust him to make the play, plus he’s got the mound to deal with. The catcher is the second-worst candidate for catching a pop up: he’s looking straight up (they’re easier when seen from the side) and he’s wearing all that gear, plus his mitt isn’t really designed for the task.
Nevertheless, Betemit appeared to be willing to let Treanor take his chances. Billy Butler did the same thing to Jason Kendall last season: stood by and watched Jason struggle with a ball in Billy’s area (pop flies are harder than you think). Fortunately, last night Gordon stepped in and took over.
Getzie sits
One of the reasons I like Ron Polk’s evaluation system is it forces you to consider things that usually don’t get measured. Chris Getz has been benched (at least for a while) because of his batting average, but it seems like he does a lot to help a team win, even when he’s not hitting.
The only starters with a higher on-base percentage are Gordon, Francoeur, Butler and Betemit. He has five steals, four 8+ pitch plate appearances, has taken an extra base six times, made four outstanding plays on defense, broken up four double plays, has six sacrifices and made zero mental mistakes. None of that is spectacular, it’s just good, solid baseball.
On the other hand, if he’s not playing, he’s got more time to make videos, and I can always use a player with a good sense of humor.
Betemit
Treanor
Butler
Here's the only reason the Royals are getting beat: David Glass.
As with almost all MLB teams.....
Money = Wins
And even if these prospects pan out, they won't be in KC for too long.
Why did we renovate Kauffman again?
Lee - I agree. Correctly evaluating Getz v. Aviles is a big decision for the Royals this year, and batting average is not the best or even most important stat for it (OBP that plus slugging is clearly more important than BA. I hope the Royals are carefully considering all these different important points. Picking the best overall player for 2B by the time Moose comes up will be an important decision. So will finding out if Kila or Clint can be a keeper at 1B (if they are and we have a hole in RF, then best overall team value could be achieved by moving Hosmer there).
Is it me or did the top of the order's approach to the plate change these past few games? It seems to me that they were taking more pitches and working the count pretty deep the first time around. Now they're going up there hacking. Don't they read your blog? ;)
Mike: For the most part, you're right: money talks, bs walks. (The closest I can come to that saying on a Star website).
Every year it seems like somebody plays over their heads and does much better than you'd think from looking at their payroll, but usually the teams that spend are there year after year.
Supposedly, Glass got the message when Dayton Moore arrived and I've heard of concrete improvements in the minors, but it's fair to ask whether Glass will spend the money to keep all the prospects they brag about.
Steve: I was taught that you look for defense up the middle and any offense was a plus. Vice versa for the corners. I've liked Getz's game from the beginning: he's a versatile player and that's a tremendous help to a manager.
Chris gives you a decent at-bat, can steal a base, understands situational hitting and can get down a bunt...plus he's solid defensively.
As a manager it's frustrating when you know what the right move is, but the guy at the plate can't execute it and you have to stick with hacking and hoping for the best.
I just think Chris does a lot of things to help a team win that don't make it into the box score.
Michael: (Have you guys figure out that if I answer you individually I get more page hits?...Every little bit helps.) I'll ask Ned Yost if we can make reading my blog mandatory for players.
And you're right, the top of the order has been hacking, which coincides with the demotion of you know who.
In Getz's last game before being benched he saw 26 pitches in four plate appearances (if I counted right) and walked twice.
In his last game in the leadoff spot he saw 21 pitches (but took an 0-fer). On the other hand, I can take a lot of pitches, but eventually the team needs me to be productive in some way. Having said that I think Getz's approach is well-suited to the 1 or 9-hole.
Don't want to mention anything about a "curse" here, Lee...but you did a video with Texiera and he's on the DL now. A video with Getz and now he's sitting down....are players going to start avoiding your requests for a video appearance ? Just kidding, and I agree with the "up the middle for defense" bit, you have to be very strong defensively there and any offense you get is a plus. But you can't have 4 weak batters filling that area, we need production from someplace and can't depend on the other 5 guys to carry the offense all the time
Scott: Dude, you're killing me. I was hoping nobody would notice the 'make-a-video-something-bad-happens' connection. Let's hope Kevin Seitzer doesn't fall down the dugout steps or I'm screwed.
As for the four guys up the middle: I agree, you hope for something offensively from those guys, but if I've got to choose, I'm going with defense.
I agree with Casey Stengel who once said, "I'm not in favor of those players who drive in one and let in two." (And if he didn't say that, he said something like that.)
You're getting offense from Melky, Escobar doesn't need to hit much more than .250 with his defense and I thought Getz's on-base percentage would keep him on the field.
As for catcher, that's a totally defensive position in my mind and any offense you get is icing on the cake.
There's a reason the Molina brothers stay employed.
Great article, Lee. Strong defense is so undervalued by the casual fan.
I'm glad you left money out of the article because I've never agreed that "spending money" will always equate to wins. By most fan's theories, if we just "spent", we would be winners. I think we can all come up with a full roster of high paid players that wouldn't win more games than the low payroll team we are fielding now. Obviously the key is spending wisely. If there is nobody of value to sign, then don't sign. I'm fully satisfied with where the Royals are today (financially speaking) because we are building for our soon-to-be-major-leaguers-in-Omaha-and-NWA. Too bad that I'm in the minority on that one.
I think Getz should play everyday, too. If he's hurting us at the top of the lineup, bury him at #9 and leave him there. Find another leadoff hitter (Melky?).
So, according to the first commenter, David Glass doesn't spend any money (untrue - the Royals have been in the top 10 in money spent in the draft and internationally for a few years now), and can't win games without a roster full of high-dollar contracts (also untrue - last year's World Series champs had a payroll under $100M, even though they were grossly overpaying a trio of washed up veterans in Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand and Edgar Renteria. Without those three, the payroll is closer to $60M).
Oh, and we also won't be able to retain any of our up and coming prospects "for too long" (wrong again - MLB rules state that major league teams can keep players promoted from the minor leagues under team control for the first six full years of their career).
If you really believe all this (over-simplified, and mostly incorrect) stuff, then why even follow the team?
Adi: One of the things I wanted to do with this website was recognize defense because it gets so little attention elsewhere.
Offense is easier to measure, so we spend more time on it. (Any fanstasy leagues based on turning double plays and blocked pitches?) That's one of the reasons players like what Im doing.
As for the spending: I actually think the Royals have been pretty smart by finding players with something left and something to prove (Cabrera and Francoeur come to mind). My question is still whether David Glass will pay to keep these prospects when the time comes.
And, yeah, Getz seems like a perfect 9-hole guy.
Couple things: Nick, you're right, money isn't everything, but it is a factor and until recently a factor that worked against the Royals.
You're also right that teams keep players for six years, but the Royals have often decided to move someone before they have to pay them and don't even get the six years out of them.
It's also been suggested to me that the Royals won't bring all these guys up at the same time to avoid having them hit arbitration and free agency in the same year.
I just think that after all the publicity these guys have gotten, if the Royals decide to move them after a few years, people (me included) will be very disappointed.
Before we move on I should say that I'm getting very close to wandering into areas in which I have no expertise...and may have already crossed that line.
I know nothing about GM issues and try to avoid them. I know nothing (except what I read) about the players in the minor leagues or in other systems.
I know a little more about managing issues, having managed 500+ ballgames, but next to nothing about what combination of Royals players would make the best lineup or what should be done in any particular situation. (Wow, that's a lot of stuff to not know.)
What I DO know a fair amount about is how these particular guys play. I watch every pitch of every game and keep track of quite a few statistics. Even if I were a moron (and there are people who would debate the point) I'm a moron who's seen these guys play every day. I'm not looking at a zone rating or reading blogs, I'm actually watching these guys play.
I should probably avoid conclusions and just offer evidence. I'm sure there are factors that I haven't thought about that went into benching Getz, but I thought it was worthwhile to point out the things that Getz does that might not show in a box score.
Having said that, telling Chris that he's getting screwed isn't doing him any favors. Friends and family can add to a player's sense of disappointment and resentment. Right now Getzie's job is to stay positive and be ready when he gets his chance.
Lee, after reading your article on pop ups (which was very interesting), I checked the full game grid points on Betemit. Would not taking care of his responsibility on the pop up be a mental error or does that type of scoring only occur if the end result of the play was negatinve (Say Gordon doesn't go after the ball and Treanor fails on the catch).
It depends on how you look at it. People were there and the play was going to be made, Wilson just wasn't aggressive about taking a ball in his area. If it had dropped because he wasn't there, different story, at least for me.
I gave Billy Butler several mental errors last season because he wasn't getting to his cutoff spot at the mound (and I probably didn't catch every time...part of why I say don't take the numbers too seriously, but look for patterns). When guys are daydreaming they'll realize they're needed too late and won't get there in time (pitcher covering first and all the backing up that's supposed to be going on).
Like I say, I'm not catching all those, but when you see it happening multiple times it tells you something.