On opening day of the 2010 season, I was convinced that Yuniesky Betancourt was a bad shortstop. I’d heard some advanced defensive metric had rated him the worst shortstop since the Bronze Age and, without giving it much thought, I accepted that conclusion.
Nothing will change your mind about a ballplayer like watching him play 151 games. Here’s what I learned that summer:
Betancourt was far from the worst shortstop in baseball and, around the stadium, that rating was seen as an indictment of defensive metrics, not Yuniesky Betancourt. Everyone has to decide for themselves what they trust and who they listen to, but some of those same metrics now say first baseman Eric Hosmer is a poor defender.
At times, Betancourt played brilliantly, although he could certainly be inconsistent. Yuni went back and to his right very well and made some spectacular plays when going that direction. He also charged the ball well and had a very quick and accurate release while throwing on the run. But Betancourt did not go to his left well, allowing what looked like routine grounders into center field. The problem was his left foot.
Infielders shuffle forward a couple steps as a pitch is delivered. This brings weight onto the balls of their feet and leaves them in good fielding position. Apparently, when Yuni finished his shuffle steps, his left foot would be too far forward. Then, when a ball was hit to his left, he would start with a crossover step with his right foot, essentially running around his own left hip.
Try it yourself: keep your feet even and drop step (the left foot goes back) to your left. Now put your left foot forward and crossover step to your left with your right foot. What you’re going to discover is the crossover technique leaves you about two steps behind the drop-step technique.
That’s why Yuniesky was late on balls to his left. The Royals were still trying to break him of this habit at the end of 2010, and I’ve got no idea if it got fixed in Milwaukee. You might think a problem going to his left would be a drawback at third base; the whole field is to his left. Fortunately, the corners require a shallower range of motion. Third basemen only have time for a step and a dive.
I’ve got no clue how Betancourt will handle second base. Moving around the infield is harder than people think. Shortstop Mike Aviles struggled with the double play when asked to play second, and second baseman Chris Getz was still trying to make adjustments in his footwork and arm angle when he was asked to play short. Everybody thought both guys had the physical talent to change positions, but as Chris told me, it takes time to develop the correct split-second reaction at each spot.
As for offense: That summer I saw Yuni have a remarkable at-bat. Betancourt swung at a breaking pitch so far outside he lost his balance and fell across the plate. The pitcher, knowing a good thing when he saw it, decided to go up and in to back Yuni off the plate. This would allow the pitcher to go low and away again on the next pitch. The pitcher put a heater under Betancourt’s chin. Good strategy, except Yuni somehow hit that pitch up around his neck for a home run.
Other than the fact that neither pitch was close to being a strike, the two pitches couldn’t have been more different: off-speed low and away, fastball up and in. Betancourt hacked at both and smoked the fastball. It occurred to me that I’d probably just seen a great athlete with no game plan. During the 2010 season there were times when Betancourt’s concentration seemed questionable. (On the other hand, you could say the same thing about mine.)
Over the last two seasons, Yuni has hit 29 home runs, slugged .405 and .381 and driven in 146 runs. In that same time period, he’s only laid down four sacrifice bunts and stolen six bases. He hasn’t shown tremendous offensive versatility.
It would seem his success as a utility player will depend on what the Royals want out of him. Ned Yost has said he’s going to do more pinch hitting and pinch running in 2012. Last season was about developing young players, so Ned let them take their hacks. The bench players mainly stayed on the bench. If this season is about winning, Ned may be more aggressive about using those players to bring home a W late in a game.
At this point, Betancourt does not seem like a versatile utility player: a guy you can ask to lay down a bunt, conduct a hit and run or steal a base. But if what the Royals want is a utility player to fill in when someone’s hurt or needs a rest, he seems like a good fit.
And, finally, when you look at these moves, remember: It’s not Yuniesky Betancourt vs. perfection. It’s Yuniesky Betancourt vs. the realistic alternatives. All players have flaws, and so does Yuniesky Betancourt.
But being the worst shortstop in baseball isn’t one of them.
Second base So if Betancourt’s the utility man, who’s playing second? Right now, the choices are Chris Getz or Johnny Giavotella. Johnny has shown power (.376 slugging %) that Chris doesn’t have (.287 slugging %). Although Getz is the steadier defender (986 fielding % to Giavotella’s .972) and has the versatility I just talked about.
Chris got 14 sac bunts down, Johnny none (although Ned might not want to take the bat out of Johnny’s hands at this point). Getz stole 21 bases in 118 games to Gio’s five in 46. Getz walks more and has a higher percentage of quality plate appearances (.394 to .329). He also strikes out less and at this point is a better situational hitter (.767 to .688).
Anyone who’s followed this site knows I like Chris Getz’s game because he gives a manager offensive options. Getzie can get a bunt down, conduct a hit and run or go out and steal a base. And doesn’t the ability to steal 21 of them last season make up for some of that lack of power? Unless it involves driving in a runner, if Getz can turn a walk into a double, who cares how he got to second?
On the other hand, nobody, including me, thinks Giavotella has shown everything he’s capable of at the major league level. I have no special insight into what the Royals will eventually decide, but the choice seems to be Getz’s versatility and consistency vs. Giavotella’s projected offensive abilities.
The curse of the chicken dinner Did the Boston Red Sox’s off-field activities knock them out of the 2011 playoffs? Well, the Oakland A’s won championships while having fistfights, Doc Ellis threw a no-hitter on LSD and Tiger Woods seemed to be a better golfer when he was committing adultery. I’d guess you could say I don’t see a clear, direct line connecting what happens off the field and results on the field. There are just too many stories of players having great games while suffering a hangover.
In fact, when I read about what was happening in the Red Sox clubhouse last season, I thought, “I could take the things I’ve seen, add a negative spin and paint a picture of a team in disarray … but it would be an inaccurate picture.” The Royals had a good clubhouse, but a clubhouse like all clubhouses: Filled with players trying to get through a long season.
The 2011 Royals played pranks, had arguments and goofed around at times, just like every team I’ve ever heard of. Boston catcher Jason Varitek said the things that were being blamed for the Red Sox losing had gone on every year, but now people needed a scapegoat. Starting pitchers having chicken dinners in the clubhouse on days they weren’t pitching gave people the scapegoat they were looking for.
If the Red Sox had won, those kinds of activities would be “colorful.” In Charlie Rosen’s book, “Bullpen Diaries,” he tells the story of Whitey Ford sitting at a table covered with a red-checkered tablecloth, eating pizza and drinking red wine in a tunnel under Yankee Stadium after winning a game the previous day. But Whitey and the Yankees were winners, so his in-game meal was OK. Or, as Clint Hurdle once said of the New York Mets’ hefty pitcher, “Sid Fernandez is only fat when he loses.”
So is there any legitimate criticism that can be leveled at the Red Sox?
Absolutely. In one of the playoff pregame shows, Cal Ripken showed a play from a Red Sox game in which a ball was hit to right with a runner on second. Pitcher Tim Wakefield never moved to back up home plate or third, and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez never moved to act as the cutoff man in the middle of the infield. It was a demonstration of a team going through the motions…and it was also legitimate, fair criticism.
Every player I’ve talked with draws the same line: what happens on the field is fair game, chicken dinners in the clubhouse aren’t. If the team is not doing its job on the field, the players and coaches deserve to be criticized. But the kind of detailed, baseball-oriented criticism that Ripken presented is much more difficult than blaming a chicken dinner.
To truly understand why a team is succeeding or failing, you have to watch every pitch and know what you’re looking for. Taking your eyes off the ball and realizing that the cutoff man is out of position is not easy (and something I fail to do far too often). Focusing on each and every pitch requires a level of concentration that members of the press don’t always demonstrate, myself included.
Every reporter covering a team has to make a decision: where is the line between fair game and off-limits? My line runs from home plate to the foul poles. What happens on the field is fair game. I can like Jeff Francoeur (and I do), but if he misses the cutoff man, I need to say so (I’ve done that, also).
But as long as Frenchy gives a good effort, plays the game hard and in the right way, I don’t care what he eats in the clubhouse…and I’d probably ask him to save me a drumstick.
Steven A Hurst
1 year, 4 months agoYuni was a family favorite while he was here the first time. Escie became a family favorite last year. It’ll be interesting how Yuni handles the “utility” role… I’m hopeful but also doubtful. The one obvious thing to me was that Escie made amazing plays nearly every game at the beginning of the year, but less often in the second half. I’m hoping that Yuni will give Escie enough rest to keep him fresh all season long.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoSteven: So you’re just sitting around on Christmas Eve, too? A couple of thoughts on Escobar: I noticed the same thing. He had more brilliant plays at the beginning of the season than the end.
One of the reasons might’ve been that he was doing a better job of positioning himself. As the season wore on he had a better idea of hitters’ tendencies and would often be in the right position to start with.
If that’s so, also credit infield coach Eddie Rodriguez. He stands at the top of the dugout steps and positions each infielder when a new hitter comes to the plate. Watch him this coming season: if Eddie nods his head at the infielder that means the infielder is in the right spot. If he leans his head over he wants the infielder to move in that direction.
There was some thought that Escobar was getting a little nonchalant with his throws over to first as the season wore on. Eric Hosmer digs so many balls out of the dirt that it’s easy for an infielder to get too relaxed on his throws.
But you’re also right about getting Esky rest: without Aviles, the Royals had no natural shortstop to run out there. Escobar played an awful lot of games without a break.
Rick Langtry
1 year, 4 months agoI’m with you on what my eyes told me about Yuni, that he was not the worst SS in MLB, if there were better options, they would not be in the minors. In my opinion, he was our 2010 MVP if you look at his offensive production vs teammates. I don’t really care as much about BA and OBS as I do extra base hits, slugging, OPS and RBI. His closest competitor offensively was a DH, not a lot of help on D. And Yuni had a lot of clutch and game changing hits in 2010. They say you can’t win with Yuni at SS, but he was 1 win away from the WS. I think he is a great signing as a backup. 1 of our 3 starting infielders will likely be injured at some point and on the DL in 2012 missing at least 15 games. You could do a lot worse than Yuni at that point. I am a fan of Getz’s game and not sold on Gio defensively. Overall, I like the way the team has been put together for 2012, though I will be surprised if Cain ever approaches Melky’s number.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoRick: Interesting you should say you thought Betancourt was the Royals’ 2010 MVP. Ron Polk’s system gave him the most points that summer. (Although, you have to consider the fact that I was running it and I know I didn’t do it perfectly.)
Yuni did have several clutch hits in 2010 including three game-winners. Betancourt strikes me as the kind of player you run out there, assuming over the course of a game or a season he’ll do more to help you than hurt you.
He doesn’t strike me as the kind of player you ask to do something specific right now. But I could be wrong and he’ll show me so this season.
It’s a little worrisome that the Brewers bought out his contract for $2 million. Of course, you don’t know if that was a desire to get rid of Yuniesky Betancourt or a desire to sign Alex Gonzalez. Yuni’s offensive numbers are slightly better than the ones Gonzalez put up last season, but some of Alex’s defensive numbers look better than Betancourt’s.
But, as I say a lot on this site: the numbers don’t show you everything and there may be other, very good reasons both teams made the moves.
On the plus side, the Royals had Yuni in the clubhouse for a while and welcomed him back.
As for Cain vs. Cabrera: I feel pretty much like you do. Melky put up some very good numbers over the course of a season, it will be interesting to see if Lorenzo can do the same. Remember that Jonathan Sanchez is part of that ‘was-it-worth-it?’ equation, also.
And, by the way, Merry Christmas.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 4 months agoWow, what a lot of information. Agree with Rick, we could do a lot worse than Yuni as a backup. I like what it says about this team, that our 2010 starting shortstop signs with us as a utility player in 2012. Also like the fact that players are now wanting to play for the Royal. Some of Esky’ plays started to look more routine because he made so many. Can’t varify this but was told Yuni was actually a second baseman Cuba.
Mreey Christmas all.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 4 months agoWell that was supposed to be Merry Christmas. Your chicken in the club house comments are right on. Now if they are doing it in the dugout during the game that would be a whole different story. I only hear people really get on Billie for being slow is when he gets thrown out at first. When he gets a single, double or homerun, speed is not as much of an issue. Maybe some singles could be doubles and some doubles, triples, but a ball hit hard to an infielder is almost always an out regardless of who is running. Dyson may be the exception to this. If Billie dogs it to first, I would be the first to call him on it. He is trying, last year I saw him go 1st to 3rd on single to outfield a couple of times. I would like to see him push it more often but think in the back of his mind is, if he gets thrown out, speed issue will be brought front and center.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoBy the way, I forgot to mention left-handed reliever Jose Mijares in this post. As I’ve mentioned before, lefty Tim Collins has great stuff, but there was some frustration with how many people he walked last season (48 in 67 innings).
Of course, great stuff often allows you to get out of the jam you created, but most managers would prefer that pitchers bear down right away and avoid those long innings.
15 pitches per inning is considered average and Tim averaged 18.58 per inning last season. (Which ranks him as the Royals 18th most-effecient pitcher in 2011.)
3.58 extra pitches in an inning doesn’t sound like much, but multiply it by the 67 innings Collins threw and Tim had the defense on the field for an extra 239.86 pitches over the course of the season, which is like playing an extra 16 innings (assuming the batteries in my calculator are still fresh).
On the other hand, Collins struck out 60 batters in those 67 innings and posted a 3.63 ERA ranking him 8th on the team. So pick your number and form an opinion.
Anyway, Mijares gives the Royals some options. I’ve heard Ned Yost say it’s nice to have two lefties in the pen and we haven’t talked about Everett Teaford yet. It’ll be interesting to see if improving the pen and blowing fewer saves can get the Royals over .500.
P.S. ERA is more important for relievers who tend to start the inning (set-up men and closers). Look at inherited runners stranded to understand if a guy who comes in during a rally is good at shutting the other team down right away.
I’d try to find those numbers on Collins, but the kids are getting up (those college students can really sleep when they put their mind to it) and it’s time for Christmas presents.
Happy Holidays everybody.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoLarry: Glad you liked the Betancourt information. This website is still developing and I’m still figuring out what to do with it, but analyzing the way a guy plays baseball seems like a worthwhile goal.
It makes the game more interesting if you know Scott Podsednik did not play the wall well, or Jeff Francoeur uses the patterns in the grass to position himself between pitches or Yuniesky Betancourt has trouble on balls to his left.
When I get to hang out with professional players and coaches, those are the kinds of things they talk about after a game. I want to bring that type of conversation and information to fans and, fortunately, some people seem to enjoy it.
I’m also glad you liked the chicken dinner piece. It’s so much easier to focus on that kind of stuff than the technical aspects of the game.
But one thing about Billy Butler…
(And let me pause here to say I think Billy’s a terrific hitter. There are some fans who get upset whenever Billy gets analyzed, but ALL players have strengths and limitations.)
What you’re talking about when Billy runs down to first is the difference between effort and results. Professionals concentrate on effort (knowing they can’t control results), fans and the media often concentrate on results (and sometimes missing whether the correct effort was there).
If Billy hustles to first, that’s all you can ask.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months ago(Sorry, but my own website is telling me to shut up and won’t let me post anything with over 3,000 characters…didn’t know it would do that. Here’s the second part of the response to Larry Tindle.)
But Billy’s speed once he’s on the bases is still an issue. You say you saw him go first to third a couple times last year and you’re right: according to my scorekeeping Billy went first to third on a single two times in 2011. He was also not able to score from first on quite a few doubles.
Billy’s lack of speed means pitchers don’t have to worry about the stolen base (he had two in 2011, both on the back end of double steals), which also means pitchers don’t have to go into slide steps as often or throw as many fastballs to the hitter.
It also means they can treat first like an open base. Paul Splittorff told me he wouldn’t mind walking Wilson Betemit with Billy on first because Billy still wouldn’t be in scoring position. With Butler on first the Royals still might need three hits to score a run.
Pitchers can afford to pitch Butler on the corners and walk him because he doesn’t represent much of a threat (or at least as much as some other players) when standing on first.
Having said all that about his base running, the guy’s a wizard with a bat. I’ve seen him take pitches up around his neck and absolutely smoke them to right field. That’s not easy to do and makes him very difficult to pitch to.
The Royals asked him for more power and he delivered. Once again, how many guys can you ask to hit more home runs and they do it?
He told me he had raised his hands a bit and was staying above the ball until contact. That had him hitting down throught the ball which created rising backspin and home run trajectory. I’ll be interested to see what he does with that approach through an entire season.
And before I go rejoin my family around the tree, Mreey Christmas to you, too!
Larry Tindle
1 year, 4 months agoLee: I agree and you said it better. I guess that’s why you’re a professional writer. As long as the effort is there that’a all you can ask.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoLarry: Thanks, but compared to people who can really write, I’m just getting by.
Daniel Wesley
1 year, 4 months agoI was not a fan of Yuni 1.0, but Yuni 2.0 I can live with, as long as he remains in a utility role and is limited to 125-150 PAs over the season.
I think the major weeping and gnashing of teeth in the blogging community is more psychological than analytic. If the Royals had signed any other comparable utility infielder not named “Yuniesky Betancourt” then it would have just been business as usual - but instead we get a week’s worth of blog angst.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoDaniel: Well, at least the signing of Betancourt gave us something to talk about.
Luke Healy
1 year, 4 months agoReading your comparison between Getz and Gio, I couldn’t help thinking about how the comparisons stack up against Yuni. I know you like Getz a lot, and I’d be interested in hearing how the Royals (somehow) see Yuni as being a better backup utility player than Getz or even Navarro who they traded.
David Godinez
1 year, 4 months agoI’m not a Yuniesky-hater, so I was more amused than upset when I heard about the signing. I know he’s capable of making the great-looking play in the field when he is focused & I’ve always liked the occasional power at the plate. The obliviousness to public opinion shown in this signing by the Royals is interesting to me. I’m sure Dayton Moore & his assistants would sniff at the notion that they should pay attention to what the public will think when considering roster additions such as this, but was it a wise decision from a business standpoint to sign someone whom you must know is intensely disliked by the fan base?
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoLuke: Getz vs. Yuni as a utility infielder? OK, Yuni has more power and in my opinion is the better shortstop. I was talking with a coach from another organization and he said the true test of a utility infielder is the ability to play short.
Shortstop requires the most athletic talent and, if you can play short, at least-talentwise, you should be able to handle second or third.
When Chris was asked to play short last season he bounced some throws, but apparently the problem was footwork and finding the correct arm slot, not arm strength.
Each position requires different skills and Getz felt like he needed game-speed repetitions to develop the requiired muscle memory.
Not having seen Yuni play second or third, I’ve got no idea how he’ll handle either. Second can be a bit more forgiving than short: knock the ball down, pick it up and you’ve still got a play. Short, you’ve got to do it right the first time.
A lot of people find the most difficult second base skill to be turning the double play. Second has his back to the runner and has to develop that sixth sense that tells him when the play is taking too long and how he’s going to deal with the arriving runner.
Third has that charging throw on bunts that has to be made from down under and across the body.
To me, Getz has the edge as a situational hitter and base runner. He can steal a base, lay down a bunt, do either end of a hit and run and understands how to move or drive in a runner.
Yuni seems like more of a hacker who may do some good things over nine innings. Getz seems like a better choice if you have something specific that has to be done.
As for Yamaico Navarro: A person from another organization (not the Royals or Red Sox) said that there MIGHT, MIGHT, MIGHT be an attitude/concentration problem there. Let me caution you: one person saying something does not make it true. Maybe just one guy had a bad experience with him.
Maybe Yamaico is an Eagle Scout who plays chess at a Grand Master level. I don’t know the guy. But this is just the kind of thing I’m talking about when I say it’s difficult to play GM. There’s a whole lot of stuff that goes into these moves that we never hear about.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoDavid: I’m barely qualified to talk about what goes on in the dugout and clubhouse, but extremely unqualified to talk about what goes on in the front office.
And now I’ll do it anyway…
I have no idea what Dayton Moore’s attitude is towards signing a player unpopular with the fans, but if I were him, I wouldn’t let it stop me.
Fans (and the media) can be very fickle. The same guy who gets booed after his third at-bat can get a standing ovation after his fourth.
And I’m not even sure Yuni is that unpopular. I’ve heard that some bloggers into metrics don’t like him, but I was there on the nights he had game-winning hits and he seemed pretty popular then.
We ran a poll on the Yuni decision here at the Star and I was told the majority of fans who voted approved the move.
Bottom line for Yuni, Hosmer, Frenchy and everyone else wearing Royal blue, is winning. Do that and they’ll be the most popular kids on the block.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoGood piece, Lee. You and others covered the bases, so just wanted to let you know that I’m still reading. Happy Holidays and hurry Spring Training! Thinking of going down there for awhile this year.
Brian Grant
1 year, 4 months agoI think KC fans’ frustration with Yuni was not so much about him as a player. He’s an OK player, seems to work hard and be a good teammate. He does some things well. The issue was that we were being asked to accept Yuni as our every day starting shortstop, and this made one thing evidently clear: The Royals are still not a very good baseball team.
So we took out some frustrations on the guy. Now that he is back on the team in a role that is much more befitting a man of his talents, and we feel much better about the guys we’re being told to accept as starters, I think we are more than happy to welcome Yuni back.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: Your presence on the site is always welcome. You seem to have a good handle on what advanced metrics have to offer (a better understanding than I have, without a doubt), but a healthy skepticism about their unfailing accuracy.
You’ve been a voice of reason and that’s something all websites can use.
The original plan was to send me for all six weeks of spring training. Now that’s under discussion. Either way, if you’re in Surprise and spot me wandering around, please stop and say hello. I’d love to talk.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoBrian: Interesting point of view on Betancourt and imagine a number of people feel the way you do.
Sometimes we find an easy label to stick on a guy and that becomes gospel through repetition. I think that’s what happened to Yuni.
The media is especially bad about this which feeds into public perception. “Worst shortstop in baseball” was an irresistable label and got repeated by people who hadn’t seen him play for any appreciable length of time.
Like I said, I bought into that label until I saw him play 151 games. He just wasn’t as bad as I’d been led to believe by his reputation.
I did wonder about his consistency, one of the most underrated talents in the game. While I thought Yuni was better than people were saying and would help you more than hurt you over 162 games, I wondered if he might brain-cramp or lose focus in play-off game.
But if his job is to give people a day off or fill in when someone’s banged up, the Royals could do a lot worse.
And have.
Steven A Hurst
1 year, 4 months agoOne thing about Billy’s (lack of) speed. His GIDP dropped by almost half in ‘11 from ‘10. What I noticed is that with less than 2 outs, if the Royals had a guy on 1B (& Billy at the plate), he’d steal 2B… noticed it with Aviles before he went to AAA, then with Alex & Melky.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoSteven: Excellent point. Billy got hammered for hitting into too many double plays in 2010, but no one seemed to make a big deal about that number going down in 2011.
I’m as much to blame as anybody, I should’ve taken note and talked about the reasons why. You’re probably as close to the truth as anybody, but I’ll ask when I see the team again.
I’m a fan of the stolen base and that’s just one more thing it can do when successfully executed: keep you out of double plays. On the other hand, it opens up first and they can work around Billy if they choose to. That’s why you need a good 4-hole hitter: make them pay for walking Billy.
I once asked if the Royals would consider more hit and runs with Billy to keep him out of the DP, but the team didn’t want to force him to swing at a marginal pitch. They wanted him driving the pitch of his choice.
Butler also raised his hands right before he went on that power streak last season which had him hitting down on the ball. That created rising backspin.
With his hands lower, he’d sometimes have to fight his way back up to the ball’s level and that can create topspin and pound the ball down into the ground.
I’m going to see Kevin Seitzer soon and, if I remember, I’ll ask him about Billy and the double play.
Sean Fischbach
1 year, 4 months agoGlad you’re back but how do I see last weeks column online? I saw you were going to update this 1x per week (or so) but I missed the last few weeks of commentary?
Not the game by game, but the off season column’s?
tks
Randy Westfahl
1 year, 4 months agoI have been waiting for someone to write this article for a while now. I got to watch him a lot while he was here the first time and he played as well for us as any shortstop has for quite a while. The Sabermetric guys really worked him over and for som reason Joe Posnanski really did a number on him before he ever played a game here. Never seen a kid draw such a bad hand before he ever got to play in a game for this team. I enjoyed watching him play. He made some spectacular plays, made some errors, but they all do, and he hit with power that we really needed. He is a good average ballplayer and there are days that he can be spectacular. Is he mistake free, no of course not, but for some reason, that was held against him in a completely unfair way. I never will understand that.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoSean: I’ve been working on making all the columns I write available to the public. Right now, once they post the new one, you can’t see the old ones.
I’ll stay after them to make everything available, but I think I’m pretty low on the list of the IT problems the Star currently has.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoRandy: I think part of the attraction of sabermetrics is having a number that sums up a player. Compare the numbers and you don’t actually have to watch the players.
And if you don’t have to watch the players, you can then make comparisons between guys who are here, guys in the minors and guys on other teams. Heck, you can compare live players to dead ones.
I don’t want to totally dismiss the sabermetrics community or the contribution it’s made to the game, but not all of its contributions are equal,
For instance: Royals Authority, a site that goes in for metrics, recently had a strike zone chart of the balls Mike Moustakas swung at and other charts that showed the results. I found this both informative, interesting and understandable.
On the other hand, I don’t find UZR informative or particularly accurate. It doesn’t take into account where the player is standing when the pitch is thrown. All it records (and even these are guesstimates) is whether a particular type of ball in a particular vector was turned into an out.
A team that uses a lot of shifts will effect the UZR ratings of their players. Even if a player was nowhere near the ball, his rating can go down because the ball wasn’t caight.
So Yuniesky Betancourt ended up on the bottom of an inaccurate rating system and the label “worst shortstop in baseball” was born and repeated by many people who hadn’t spent much time watching him play.
During the 2010 season I never ran into anybody associated with the team who agreed that Yuni was the worst shortstop in baseball…and these guys weren’t slow to bury people when speaking off the record.
I’d advise all baseball fans to take everything they hear with a grain of salt (and that certainly includes what I have to say). There’s always another side and no one number or opinion can sum up a player.
Steven A Hurst
1 year, 4 months agoAnother good reaon to sign up for the RSS feed… you can go back to which ever post that you want.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 4 months agoLee: Looked it up and Yuni was a second baseman in Cuba. Mariners changed him. One reason for Billie hitting into less GIDP may be that they asked for more power, which you explained how he did it, and this resulted in more fly balls with people on first. Also have you ever gone to Spring Training before.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoSteven: No clue what an RSS feed is, but thanks for the information. Maybe others can make better use of it.
I’m so technologically backward that when the editor of the paper demanded everyone’s iPhone at lunch so they’d quit screwing around with them, he got one look at the antique cell phone I carry and said I could have it back.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoLarry: Thanks for the information, that’s good to know. At least Yuni will have a clue as to what’s required on that side of the infield.
And, yes, I’ve been to spring training a few times, both in Florida and Arizona. I went to Ft.Myers when the Royals were still there and hung out for a while.
Frank White advised me to never leave the hotel at night. He said no matter how badly I screwed up they’d always get me back to my room. Outside the hotel, there were no guarantees.
Hal McRae told me to make sure I scared the hell out of my kids when they were little because it would come in handy once they were bigger than me.
Dan Quisenberry was bored with running wind sprints and asked me to run with him. He beat me every time and I finally said, “You’re not considered fast, are you?” He started laughing, but it gave me a good idea of how slow I am compared to major league players.
I also rode the team bus to Clearwater (if I recall correctly) and got to know Greg Pryor on the way.
Basically, spring training is a blast and every fan should go if they get a chance.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 4 months agoI figured you had done Spring Training before. With your access it must be a blast. Been to Surprise a couple of times. Wish I was going this year. Really would like to watch the kids get ready. Highly recommend it to anyone that can go. Besides the weather in AZ is very nice that time of the year.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoLarry: One of the best things about spring training is the ability to see a lot of team in one area. There are complexes all over the place.
I’d also suggest watching drills on the back fields. I find it fascinating to watch them break the game down into its parts and then work on the small things that make the difference between winning and losing.
I was in Tucson with Clint Hurdle watching catchers throw to bases one day, but they’d put the infielders behind the bases on the edge of the grass.
I asked Clint what was up with that and he said they were forcing the catchers to throw ‘through’ the bases not ‘to’ the bases. Apparently, catchers can develop the habit of trying to put the ball right on the bag, but if they come up a bit short, the throw is bounced and catching the runner is unlikely.
The Rockies wanted their catchers to throw over the bag to give the middle infielder a good ball to handle.
Watching a drill like that gives you a new appreciation for that particular play and what goes into it.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months ago“All it records (and even these are guesstimates) is whether a particular type of ball in a particular vector was turned into an out.”
I’m thinking you mentioned that Royals fielders positioned according to where and what pitch was to be thrown and if the pitcher missed his spot it would look like the fielders were mispositioned. Given Royals’ pitchers’ problems hitting the strike zone the last few years, I would think UZR heavily affected by the pitchers rather than being an independent statistic.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: You bring up a great point: few stats are totally independent. A pitcher’s ERA can change based on who’s catching, the four-hole hitter’s on-base percentage will be affected by the five-hole hitter and a pitcher that can’t hit his spots can make his fielders look bad.
I’ll give you an example: Doug Sisson told me that the Royals we’re going to throw Derek Jeter fastballs on the inner half. Jeter inside-outs those balls and hits them to right field. Sisson told me any ball hit to Jeff Francoeur, even if it was a hit, meant the pitcher had done his job.
Sisson also told me any ball hit between Alex Gordon (who was also going to playing Jeter the opposite way) and the left field line would be a mistake by the pitcher. It would mean the pitcher left an off-speed pitch in a spot which allowed Jeter to pull it.
As I recall, Jeter had three or four hits during that series which fell into that area. All were on off-speed pitches and all probably hurt Gordon’s defensive ratings. If Alex had been playing straight up, he probably catches those balls.
(By the way, I asked Sisson if it was OK to tell this story at the time and he said go ahead: Jeter can take one look at the outfield and know just how he’s getting pitched.)
And that gets me to a question I’d like to ask you: would WAR be affected in the same way?
If it truly tries to measures Wins Above Replacement (and I can’t fathom how it could possibly do that), would a player be worth more wins on one team and fewer on another?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months ago“would a player be worth more wins on one team and fewer on another?”
I think so. WAR likes OBP, OBP is a contextual stat that changes with batting order and a hot-streak from the guy on deck, as we saw last season with Billy and Frenchy. WAR likes slugging percentage, one I actually also value, but one with a park context. WAR assigns value to baserunning, bsr, forgetting that guys in the coaches’ box are waving or stopping runners. WAR values fld, fielding, which is the sum of what we are talking about. Brief example, outfield assists raise the values of the three guys we had last year, but probably half those assists don’t happen with Olivo or Buck behind the plate, as neither would brave the contact that cost Matt Treanor the end of the season or that Savior Perez seems to relish. The team, specifically the cut-off men and the catcher, made our outfield better than it would have been with out of position cut-off men with issues transferring the ball from the glove, then making an inaccurate throw home to a catcher who prefers a sissy-swipe tag over crushing a foolish base runner.
WAR is useful enough for comparing within groups, but isn’t really definitive and still requires eyeballs and judgement to give it meaning.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: Thanks for the information. Great point about the relay men and catchers affecting the value of outfielders.
Clearly you know more about advanced metrics than I do, my background comes from players and coaches. But it sounds like we’re meeting in the middle: you need both statistics and observation to understand what you’re seeing.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoI’m an old eyeball man, but can’t ever stop learning. I’m trying to find a workable middle between that which can be quantified by the official scorer and that which doesn’t show up in the box score.
If you get a chance this year, try to get an interview with the Royals “Nerd Trust”. The team has some sharp guys who have access to much better data than bloggers and posters do. They’re the ones who verified Jack Soria and spotted Felipe Paulino, based on advanced metrics. I know Soria was cross-checked with a scout who had seen him and assume the same for Paulino, so there is value to the discipline, but it seems to work best hitched in tandem to the scouts.
Thanks for coming back to us for the winter:)
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: Good idea. I’d be interested in hearing what those guys look for and which stats they find helpful.
I’ll put in on my list.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoGreg Schaum was kind enough to link this article on long-toss and program training. I tried to email this to you, but didn’t work, something about wet grass and cobblestones:
http://www.pinetarpress.com/?p=7462
He is in contact with all trainers mentioned and related to a couple of them. This is the post he wrote in response to my request for information:
“I have access to any and all people in this article If Lee needs contacts for his research. The Royals were not happy with this article because they felt they were not one of the teams guilty of this. But, this article was not about any one team it was about many teams in baseball. Baseball, historically has been behind the train. I believe many teams (including the Royals now) have moved past this and I really feel we are about to see a new era in quality pitching and development in the big leagues because of this
If I were a GM I would have a list of every P that had their routine taken from them when they signed with a cookie cutter organization and I would trade for that P and get him back on the appropriate program
IMO Brooks Pounders could be that guy for KC”
jf
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: Thanks, I’ll read the article this weekend.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoHere’s that SI story I tried to send a couple of weeks ago on program pitcher training:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1189170/1/index.htm
It’s a coming thing, but kind of retro in a way. That’s how kids strengthened their arms back when I was young, first warm dry day everybody at the sandlot throwing short, then getting longer every day.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: I’ve got no particular expertise in strengthening a pitcher’s arm (read the long-toss article) and all my evidence is anecdotal.
For a couple of winters I threw long-toss with Jerry Dipoto, the current Angels GM, and I was under the impression that a lot of pitchers were doing it back then (mid-90s).
Our team had a pitcher fresh out of Triple A and by the end of the season his arm was killing him. He thought he was done as a pitcher until he got a job as a high school coach and had to throw BP every day.
He came back the next season, said his arm never felt better and pitched another 12 years with my team. He’s still pitching today.
That made me think Atlanta Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone was right: use your arm every day, but don’t over use it.
I need to introduce myself to Dave Eiland and see what he has to say on the subject.