A long, long time ago…wait a minute, let me throw another “long” in there, it really was a while back…I was in St. Joseph giving a speech. For some reason, Dean Vogelaar, the Kansas City Royals public relations vice president at the time, was speaking right before me. What Vogelaar said has stuck with me all these years: Good teams have a game plan and stick to it. Bad teams are in a constant state of panic and keep changing plans.
That’s why I’m glad Royals GM Dayton Moore did not go out and sign a free-agent pitcher.
Let me explain: In the years following Vogelaar’s speech, the Royals seemed to lose their way. In my opinion, they became a perfect example of the “bad” team Vogelaar was talking about; constantly changing philosophies — preaching one thing and doing another. It got so bad that one year they signed the less-than-mobile Matt Stairs and moved the outfield fences back. It made you wonder what the game plan was.
So, despite the fact that the biggest question mark for the Royals in 2012 is their starting pitching, I like the fact that Moore is sticking to a plan. Moore thinks the Royals have young pitching in the system that’s almost ready, and signing a free-agent pitcher might block the advancement of that young pitching. Fans are all over the place: One minute, Kila Ka’aihue is the answer; the next minute, Eric Hosmer is the player du jour. Mike Moustakas was here for about two weeks before some people turned on him. I’ve even heard someone say now would be a good time to trade Alex Gordon.
A winning team can’t afford to be inconsistent. It needs a plan that makes sense and needs to stick with that plan. Naturally, baseball teams are always selling the idea that prosperity is just around the corner (get your season tickets now!), but there is evidence that this time, the Royals actually have a plan that’s starting to come together.
When I began writing about the Royals in 2010, they had the worst defense in the American League. Now they have five legitimate Gold Glove candidates: Alex Gordon, Jeff Francoeur, Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar and Salvador Perez. (Even if you think the Gold Glove is a lousy award, it’s nice to think the Royals might have five guys considered the best defenders at their positions.) Kevin Seitzer consistently keeps the team near the top of the league in hitting, the Royals run the bases much better these days and the bullpen has been improved.
I’ve always heard that a game plan takes five to seven years to filter its way through the system and become apparent in the major leagues. Moore became general manager on June 8, 2006; do the math. I’d like to believe that whatever is in charge of the universe has a plan, but things still seem pretty chaotic. So I’ve given up on the universe, but I still have hopes for the Royals. If they’ve got a plan, I want them to stick to it. For now, I’m willing to believe that Moore has a plan and we’re starting to see the results.
I hope so…either way, I’ve still got to watch 162 games this year.
Other stuff
I thought that Rustin Dodd’s recent story on Alex Gordon was interesting. When Gordon was scuffling, fans interpreted his quiet demeanor as not caring. Now that Gordon’s producing, that same demeanor is interpreted as being professional.
Last week, I had a disagreement with a reader over whether it would be possible for a baseball fan to know more about baseball than a baseball player (I didn’t think so), but I asked Russ Morman anyway. Russ said there are some players who aren’t exactly nuclear physicists (they’re almost always incredibly talented), but it’s hard to be a coach and be a moron. “The game exposes you.” So you might get into coaching, but you won’t last long if you don’t know what you’re doing.
Russ and I also talked about “weight-shift hitting.” Hitters do two things when they hit (OK, they do a lot more than two things, but let’s concentrate on two for now). They rotate (hips) and they weight shift (back to front). “Rotation” hitters concentrate on the circular motion in hitting and tend to be pull hitters. “Weight shift” hitters concentrate on the back to front motion in the swing and tend to be center field, opposite field hitters — or at least they did. The Charlie Lau/Walt Hriniak school of weight shift hitting isn’t as popular these days. Pitchers have come up with more variations on pitches and as a result, hitters are spreading their feet out and trying to maintain their balance.
Ned Yost recently received a contract extension. Once Ned figured out what I was trying to do, he was willing to explain some of the moves he makes during games. I hope to continue that during 2012.
Curtis Ruder
1 year, 3 months agoA couple of quick thoughts. To the question of knowing about baseball, I think the key thing to point out is that there is a lot of ambiguity in that phrase. We mean a lot of different things. Knowing baseball means knowing how to execute all of the plays needed to throw, hit, catch, and run in a game. Knowing baseball also means knowing the history of the game and having appreciation for all that has come before. Knowing baseball means knowing strategy, and having a sense of which tactics will lead to winning outcomes most frequently. That list can go on and on and on.
I have no doubt that everyone employed as a high school coach in the world knows more about the first kind of knowledge than I do. I’ll admit that straight away. But I don’t think it is so clear for any of the other ways of “knowing baseball.” I thought the disagreement basically boiled down to semantics, and the fact that you and the reader meant different things when using the phrase “knowing baseball.”
I wouldn’t call Dayton Moore a “baseball player” for example; but it is clear he knows a lot more about the game than most players.
Second, good teams also know when the plan has gone awry, have contingency plans in place, and don’t just keep failing.
Obviously, I don’t know if the deal Washington made with Edwin Jackson would have been enough to get him to KC. At the same time, I don’t see how bringing in a proven starter like Jackson on a one year commitment could be seen as deviating from the plan. The bottom line is that the rotation is thin. We all hope Hochevar has the form he had after the all-star break; we all hope Duffy makes a big leap forward after scuffling a lot of last year. We all hope Chen doesn’t regress, and Paulino keeps striking out batters at the rate he did last season, and that Sanchez finds the strike zone more consistently.
But let’s be real - it is relatively unlikely that all five of those things happen, and it is also unlikely that all five of those guys stay healthy all year, and it is not a sure thing that Crow or Montgomery or Mazzaro or SOS is ready to step into the major league rotation.
The thing I see is that the clock is ticking on this team. The window may have been opening the last couple of years, but it is now closing. If the kids we brought up are as good as we think and hope, the economic reality is that we likely won’t keep all of them into their free agency period. We have a window where Butler and Gordon are in their primes and the kids are entering their primes, and that window is coming really quickly.
If we could have gotten Jackson for the deal he signed in Washington, then I think it was a mistake not to go for it. I don’t see it as blocking anyone, especially on a one-year deal, and the additional payroll would still have left us below the payroll we had in 2008 and 2009.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoCurtis: You make several good points, as always, and I’ll do my best to respond. (For some reason, this site limits the number of characters you can post at one time, so my response will be broken into a couple of parts.)
You’re right that “knowing baseball” means different things to different people. The game’s history, the financial issues, the numbers, the overall strategies, the way a clubhouse operates, and the way a single game is managed are all different areas of knowledge (and we could both make a longer list without much effort).
That’s one of the great things about the game: there’s so much to learn.
Some fans (and generally you’re not one of them) think that because they know something about one part of the game (numbers) they know about all parts of the game. I think that’s a mistake.
Unlike the fans I’m talking about, the prevailing attitude among professional ballplayers and coaches is that there is so much to learn, you’ll never know it all. This web site is dedicated to learning as much as possible about one aspect of the game: how the players and coaches (and more specifically, the Royals players and coaches) play baseball. Why they do what they do and what we can learn from that.
That’s why I usually stay out of GM issues (today was an exception that may prove the wisdom of my usual policy). I don’t know a lot about that end of putting a team together, so I try to concentrate on the part of the game that I understand a little better. Plus, I have more access to that information than front office information.
So to concede your original point, my definition of “knowing baseball” is limited to how the game is played on the field (and I’m still learning and will never be through). There are vast areas of the game I know little about and I’ll admit that. Some fans need to do the same: admit their expertise is limited to certain areas.
It would make sense that the wider your experience, the better. Dayton Moore has been an assistant coach, a manager, a scouting supervisor, a director of player personnel, an assistant general manager and, I’m pretty sure, a player at one point. So his way of “knowing baseball” is much more complete.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoCurtis: (Did you miss me?) Once again you’re right in saying teams should not keep doing the same thing if it’s not working, but I’m saying it may take five to seven year to know.
Say you’ve determined that you need a fast, line-drive hitting team (the Royals old formula). You draft those kind of players (or other kinds of players you can trade for the kind you want) and put them in your system. It used to take those five to seven years for a player to work his way through the minors.
Now owners (and fans) want to see those players in the big leagues as quickly as possible (for instance, many people think Alex Gordon was rushed). Fans, owners and sometimes organizations don’t show the patience necessary to see if a plan is actually working. They give it a few seasons and then switch horses in the middle of the stream.
So far, Dayton Moore’s plan seems to be working. The Royals minor leagues have been highly rated. The players arriving here look like the real deal (so far).
So if Moore thinks signing a one-year deal with a free-agent pitcher will block the development of pitchers in the minors, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Not everyone in the Royals starting rotation will fail and if he thinks he’s got a couple guys who will be ready mid-season, I can see why he doesn’t want to block their progress.
Plus, Moore’s only got so much money to work with. I’d rather see him use that to tie up some of the players already here. (Be careful, I’m starting to drift out of my area of supposed expertise).
Some of our disagreement may be over expectations: I’d be happy to see a team above .500, but I’d also like to see a team that can stay in that area for a long time. Using what little cash the Royalks have on a spastic quick fix has gotten the team in a lot of trouble in the past.
I’d rather see the Royals use their money to tie up some of the people already in the system. (OK, now I’ve definitely drifted out of my area of supposed expertise.)
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoOK, I mispelled “Royals” in that last post (I’m only using two fingers, you’d think I’d have fewer opportunites to make typos) and I also wanted to admit that there are people in the Royals organization that agree with Curtis: the team has a small window of opportunity, go all in.
I’d rather see them stick with a plan and be one of those teams that regularly plays above .500 and is a playoff team on a semi-regular basis.
Like the Minnesota Twins, I’d like to see them replace the guy they lose with a similar player that’s been developing in the pipeline.
I don’t think Curtis or the coach who expressed the same opinion are wrong, we just have different philosophies: do the Royals go all in or do they play for the long haul?
As Mike Myers used to say; discuss.
Curtis Ruder
1 year, 3 months agoAccording to Wikipedia - for what that is worth - Dayton is listed as playing baseball at Garden City Junior College. Which is not nothing, for sure, but it is also not Joe Torre or even Billy Beane. My favorite manager of all time is Earl Weaver, and there was a time I could have quoted passages of his strategy book like it was the Gettysburg Address, but he couldn’t play a lick.
Baseball insiders can be as siloed as fans at times, too. Because they know exactly how to pivot the turn for a double play does not mean that they are using their relievers optimally.
I think it is especially hard to evaluate the general manager’s decisions because we just don’t know what his constraints are. I used to run a column about the SA Spurs, and we would get letters in regularly that said things like, “We should trade Vinny Del Negro and Willie Anderson for Michael Jordan.” What can you do but agree? But we could never convince the Bulls GM to make it happen.
I have no doubt that the GM has explored countless acquisitions and trades that never went through. And we don’t want him out blabbing about all of that - how many players in the Lakers-Rockets-Hornets trade that was vetoed got off to terrible starts? For me, players can seem pixels on a screen and numbers in a spreadsheet. They don’t need the disruption that even a potential trade could create. For all I know, Edwin Jackson’s first girlfriend who broke his heart into a million pieces was from KC, and he wouldn’t have come here for twice the money. For all I know, Montgomery has been working with the coaches out of the limelight and has convinced management he is ready for the opening day rotation. Or ownership has said no way we can go over a payroll of $XXX unless we get to the All-Star game within five games of the lead.
Chuck Smith
1 year, 3 months agoSo Lee, the team chapter in my Organizational Behavior class was trying to contrast team sports and said this about baseball.
“All sport teams aren’t alike. In baseball, for instance, there is little interaction among teammates. Rarely are more than two or three players directly involved in a play. The performance of the team is largely the sum of the performance of its individual players.”
There was a time I might have leaned that way. Now I just get to look at it and laugh.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoCurtis, your last paragraph is exceptional.
One thing I would mention on FA signings is something Ned Yost said before last season, that the Royals wouldn’t break the bank to get from 80 to 85 wins, since that won’t win a championship, but might to get from 90 to 95 wins, which might win a championship. As the stat projections I’ve been seeing have the Royals around 78 wins, about the same as pythag for last year, signing Jackson and Oswalt wouldn’t get us to 95 wins, Verlander and Halladay might, but they’re not realistically available.
With our market size and resulting payroll constraints and within the mission to build a long term, sustainable contender, and in light of the fact that this year’s FAs weren’t a particularly strong class, I think GMDM has played it correctly. If the Royals win 85 games this year and Zack wants to come home for next season, things could be much different a year from now and I would rather have Jackson’s $11 million in the bank to get Greinke in a Royal’s uniform as something more than a pit-stop. But that’s only if we need him. Apparently there is a paradigm shift on pitching that will diminish “cookie-cutter” training, Greg Schaum’s phrase, and will allow our former long-toss pitchers to get back to what made them uber-prospects in the first place. If Hoch, Duffy, and Monty start reaching potential, we’ll probably need Greinke money to keep some of them, as well as Hoz and Perez.
Good discussion, guys.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoCurtis: Quit being reasonable, that’s my role! (But I’m often lousy at it.) You hit a very big nail on the head: the stuff we don’t know about.
You’re right; it’s easy to say the Royals ought to do this or that when you don’t know all the restrictions. In fact, you’re now carrying the argument I make about play on the field (we don’t have all the information the team has) into the front office.
That’s a good thing: admitting we don’t know everything is the first step towards knowing more.
Both you and Jim Fetterolf point out that the strategy can change in the middle of the season: you hit the All-Star break with a lead, you might push all your chips to the middle of the table.
But if you do that, there’s a cost. I was told the Royals emptied the pipeline back in the John Schuerholz days in an attempt to win one more championship before Ewing Kauffman died. It didn’t work and Schuerholz, knowing lean times were coming, left for Atlanta. (No idea if any of that’s true, but it comes from a former Royals employee.)
The drought Kansas City has endured since is a high price to pay for a shot at one championship. So it gets us back to how you want to play the game: for the short term or the long haul.
I’m just happy to finally think there is SOME kind of plan and hope they stick to it, whatever it is.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoChuck: Sounds like whoever wrote your Organizational Behavior textbook never managed a baseball team.
I think the lesson we should all take from the comments posted so far is expertise in one area does automatically mean expertise in another.
Clint Hurdle gave me a book called “Lords of the Realm” a history of baseball ownership. The owners continually made the same mistake: assuming they knew how to run one organization meant they’d know how to run another.
This web site is based on the premise that I don’t know what the players know, but want to find out.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“an attempt to win one more championship before Ewing Kauffman died.”
We are seeing something similar in Detroit with the Prince Fielder signing, a very old, very rich owner who wants a championship, damn the costs. If he gets it, great, but the organization will face some serious challenges in the years ahead burdened with crushing payroll. Bud Selig tried that last year in Milwaukee, traded the farm for a couple of playoff games and now is in the last year of his two best pitchers and is without his best bats and looks to not be a factor for the next decade or so, with neither money nor prospects.
This could happen in KC in a year or two or three, the young studs matured and dominant with just a missing piece or two, then Mr. Glass, old and rich, decides to go for it. I assume he will do it through FA, as he has spent a lifetime building a business the old fashioned way and I also think his legacy is important to him, building an Atlanta-like dynasty for his son to carry on, so won’t trade the farm. But this year isn’t that year. And the nice thing about the Process is that year may never come as our home-grown talent takes the team up the ladder, ten more wins this year, ten more next, five more the year after with a sustainable flow of talent on tap.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 3 months agoI’ve mentioned a few times in the recent past that I too feel the Royals lack a front end starter. In reality they probably lack two. Luke Hochevar is not even close to major league #1 starter. No offense to Luke and that’s not to say he doesn’t have the talent to develop into that type of pitcher. As of today he’s pitches in a spot on a major league team out of need. He hasn’t earned it. The other starters fall in line somewhere at or below Hochevar’s level.
Curtis - Great stuff! I’m totally on-board with everything except the big ticket free agent pitcher. I think KC should pursue Roy Oswalt. At this point I think he would come at a relative bargain providing plenty of incentives are included. Oswalt is a staff ace. His biggest question mark is health. Can he stay healthy for a complete season? If the incentives are right I say he can.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“Can he stay healthy for a complete season? If the incentives are right I say he can.”
It is my understanding that Oswalt has a degenerative disc, same condition as Mike Sweeney, and he injured his back doing hurricane clean-up work last season. The fact that he is even available to some teams and they’ve passed up until two days before pitchers and catchers report tells me that he is not an attractive enough FA to send Danny Duffy to Omaha.
“The other starters fall in line somewhere at or below Hochevar’s level.”
Both Jeff Francis and Felipe Paulino out-WARed Hoch last year and ranked as #2 pitchers, just ahead of Oswalt’s NL enhanced 2.5 fWAR. Oswalt and Jackson together are only worth three or four wins over Paulino and Duffy and that just doesn’t win a World Series, whereas another year of growth by Paulino and Duffy will get us closer to the championship. If we need to buy an ace, which neither Oswalt nor Jackson are, next year will be a much better market and then a Greinke could get us to 90+ wins.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoJim: I’d prefer to see the Royals take the long view. I’d much rather see a team that was above .500 year after year and once in a while had a shot at the playoffs, than to see a team take one big shot at winning and then go back to being bad.
If they’ve got money burning a hole in their pockets, spend some to keep the kids around a few more years.
But as Curtis points out, there’s much we don’t know about what’s happening in the Royals front office. And I’m wandering pretty far from my supposed area of expertise.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 3 months agoAn example of trading the farm is the 1987 Tigers. traded a top prospect ( John Smoltz ) to Atlanta for Doyle Alexander. They were trying to repeat their 1984 WS run. Doyle did well, 9 - 0, after trade and Tigers made it to playoffs. Lost in ALCS. Now was that one time shot to win worth 21 years of John Smoltz?
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoBrian: I want to echo what Jim said. I’ve also heard Oswalt had back problems and it may be why he’s still available.
Dayton Moore never ruled out signing a free agent, but he also said there just wasn’t much out there this year. GMs tend to never say never, but it seems like there was no deal good enough to retard the progress of the guys in the minors.
Like I said at the beginning, it doesn’t bother me that the Royals didn’t go out and sign someone. That may be based on expectations; I’d be happy if they played better than .500 in 2012, it’s been a while.
If they can progress to the point where they hang around that 90-win mark season after season, I’d be a happy fan.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 3 months agoAddition to my post. Two years later (1989) Tigers lost 103 games.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoI prefer the long view, also, but we have seen elderly owners go all in for one last chance, that is human nature. Barring that from Mr. Glass, what I see the plan shaping up as is a Tampa Bay style team, fairly consistent 90 wins per year team, always within an injury or bad bounce of the playoffs. That is the environment GMDM learned the trade in and that seems to be his goal, as shown by aggressiveness in acquiring young talent through the draft and international signings. Within that goal money will be saved for key extensions and prospects will be hoarded until they are excess, then can be traded. The point we are at in the Process now is key extensions, a continuation of earlier extensions of Billy and Soria, now concerning Alex, soon enough maybe Sal Perez or the first couple of young starters to flash “Ace”.
What is so interesting to me about the Process is that it is not only a baseball problem but a business problem with lessons for anyone thinking about starting his own business.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoLarry: Good example of what we’re talking about. With their payroll,the Royals have less room to make that kind of mistake.
After a long drought, it seems like the team is close to something good. Getting over-anxious and blowing what money they have on a short-term fix seems like a mistake.
As I’ve already said; whatever their plan is I hope they stick to it. So far, so good.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoJim: We’re on the same wave length (as usual). If they could model after Tampa Bay that would be awesome.
Back when the Royals were good, long-time editor Joe McGuff told that the Royals weren’t trying to put together the best team in baseball. They just wanted to be one of those teams that hangs around until October and then hope to go on a hot streak.
That’s still not a bad model for a small-market team.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoIs it just me or does this seem like an unusually civil and intelligent discussion of the issues?
My thanks to those of you who have posted comments. You guys make me think about what I’ve said and consider the possibility that I’m wrong…or at least that my point of view needs to be refined.
That’s a tribute to the quality of response we get on this web site. Way to go.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoCurtis is becoming a solid asset, his combination of a journalism background and stat interests making him a bridge to the next generation. Larry is just Larry, says more in fewer words than I can in several convoluted paragraphs. One of the keys to a blogs’ success is putting together a group of interesting, informed commentators; free content:)
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoJim: You’re right, I’ve told several people not to skip the comments, they often contain better material than the original article.
The common thread among the regulars is being reasonable; nobody thinks they have all the answers and they’re open to new information.
I only hope to be match your qualities.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 3 months agoI’m not bothered by the Royals electing to keep their money and not chase a free agent pitcher. But it should mean we’ll see more of the young players get re-signed to long contract extensions. If neither happens then it’s just a repeat of the days when they let Damon, Beltran and Dye go away for essentially nothing. I recognize this isn’t the year to chase the title but it’s coming very soon and the Royals need to either put up or continue to represent a major league farm system for the big spending teams.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoBrian: The Royals are talking about signing some of the young players to deals that will keep them around a while. I hope that happens, if not, I agree, we’re right back to developing players for richer teams.
Steve Yeakel
1 year, 3 months agoLee - please don’t give up on the universe just yet. The Royals are a wonderful hobby, and even job for some, but the universe is still a very fascinating place, even with all its current problems. The greatest mystery of all, how is it we are even all here, as well as this great, huge place that we live in, as well as why. Whoever put all this together is very fascinating indeed.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 3 months agoJust a few quick follow up points on Roy Oswalt and injury concerns surrounding him. Oswalt is entering his 12th season in MLB. Over the course of his career he’s averaged 30 starts per year. Last season was the first since 2003 that he didn’t make 30 starts. He may have never won a Cy Young but he’s finsihed in the top 5 five different times and owns a career ERA of 3.21 along with a WHIP of 1.19. He doesn’t turn 35 until the end of August so while there are concerns he’s not over the hill by any stretch.
I’m no expert but I feel more than confident in proclaiming he’d be the staff ace on most majore league teams. Based on what I’ve read the concern about Oswalt isn’t so much health as it is his need of guaranteed money and a spot in the starting rotation.
KC’s biggest weakness is starting pitching. How can a one year incentive laden contract for a proven pitcher be anything but positive? If he’s injured and can’t play then the contract protects you. If he goes out and pitches like an All-Star then it’s money well spent.
I don’t think a one year contract would ruin the course established for KC’s young pitchers. If anything I think it would help to provide a veteran who’s had success and pitched in the post season.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoBrian, this is a fairly detailed report I found on Oswalt’s back:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/06/24/back-injury-could-put-roy-oswalt%E2%80%99s-career-in-jeopardy/
This is why the memory of Mike Sweeney keeps flashing in my mind:
“Oswalt has been dealing with back issues for years, and told Salisbury that he has had “a lot” of cortisone injections over the years. An MRI “a year or two ago” revealed two degenerative discs. This season, Oswalt says, he has felt pain “when I sit down, stand up, walk, pitch, sleep,” and he already spent more than two weeks on the disabled list earlier this season.”
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoSteve: I haven’t given up on the universe, I just find it a little random. Like the Royals front office, maybe there’s a plan I don’t fully comprehend.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 3 months agoAfter reading the Star this morning I see how complicated the pitching issue is. Balancing players with and without option really makes it difficult. Several of our young prospects are out of option, meaning if we do not put them on the 25 man roster we lose them. That is one way that taking a chance on Oswalt would block someone. His roster spot means someone would have to go, and some of the non option pitchers are on the bubble. Once again, one year of a possible good pitcher could cost us in years to come. BOY AM I GLAD I DON’T HAVE TO MAKE THOSE DECISIONS.
Also think Gil Meche.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoBrian and Jim: I won’t pretend to have any special knowledge about Roy Oswalt and his health. Oswalt might be lights out in 2012 or spend a lot of time on the DL, I don’t know. Predicting the future performance of athletes is difficult and even the people in charge of teams get it wrong all the time.
Brian, I get what you’re saying about an incentive-laden contract for Oswald: he doesn’t perform, he doesn’t get paid, but philosophically, I’d rather see the Royals try to solve their problems in-house.
At his end-of-the-season press conference Dayton Moore said that was always the first option: can you find what you need within your system?
Luke Hochevar turned it on at the end of 2011 and pitched like a top of the rotation guy, Jonathan Sanchez has nasty stuff, Bruce Chen has been solid, Felipe Paulino throws in the upper nineties and has a nasty slider, Luis Mendoza pitched well the second-half in Omaha and then had two outstanding starts here, everybody seems to think Danny Duffy is going to be a top-of-the-line starter someday and we haven’t even mentioned Aaron Crow or Mike Montgomery. (There’s also a secondary list of candidates Bob Dutton mentioned in his story today.)
All those guys have downsides that have been discussed at length elsewhere, but it does not seem impossible to find five solid starters among that group. I can see why Dayton Moore wants to try.
And I do think a big-contract free agent can block another player’s development, even if it’s a one-year deal.
The jump from Triple A to the majors is more difficult than many people imagine. Every player I talked to about this said the improved level of competition forced them to make adjustments.
Danny Duffy said pitches that he got away with in the minors were getting smoked here. Paul Splittorff pointed out that pitches Aaron Crow got hitters to chase down on the farm were getting spit on in the big leagues. Mike Moustakas told me every at-bat was hard in the major leagues, the whole world seemed to be throwing 95.
Sometimes guys have down all they can to improve in AAA and need to be here to put the final touches on their game. (One of the arguments for keeping Johnny Giavotella on the roster.) Oswalt blocking let’s say Mike Montgomery for a year, then leaving, might retard Montgomery’s progress just as the Royals are reaching the playoffs.
And as I said earlier: what you think the Royals ought to do may be connected to your expectations. If you think they’ve got a chance to win the whole thing in 2012, signing a one-year deal with a free agent pitcher makes some sense. If you think 2012 will be a year in which they improve and get ready to win the whole thing in the next couple years, developing players make sense.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoLarry: Good point that I didn’t inlcude: losing a prospect because he’s out of options. And let’s not forget the money; if you give some to Oswalt you have less to offer the kids.
And I agree with you 100%; I’m glad this is Dayton Moore’s job, not mine. It’s easy to sit here and say he ought to do this or that when we don’t have all the information. I’m sure there are factors in these decisions that make them even more complicated than we imagine.
Funny story: the Royals brought groups of bloggers out last season to meet some of the people they’d been writing about. It also gave the bloggers a chance to ask questions face-to-face. After Dayton met with one group, I asked him if he’d gotten any good questions. He said they wanted to know why he couldn’t trade some of the middle relievers for a #1 starter.
(I’m not sure if they wanted to know why he hadn’t been busy changing water into wine, but it seems like the next logical question.)
Dayton explained that everyone in the bullpen was a failed starter and teams generally don’t give up successful starters for failed ones.
Like I said, it’s easy to imagine fantasy scenarios and then blame your local GM for not making them real, but the real world gets complicated.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 3 months agoIncentive laden contracts sound good. But players seldom agree to them unless they are broken and need to prove themselves. Oswalt probably would not admit he is hurt. Also I hope in the future top free agents will look favorably on KC. Once we have our core in place a well placed free agent can make a difference. Right now our core is unproven. We have a lot of good guys but before paying big bucks we need to see consistence this year.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 3 months agoAll excellent and valid points. It’s going to be an exciting year and I hope as much as the rest that Luke Hochevar takes that next step in progression. I’m confident the bullpen will become one of the best in the AL.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoLarry, good point. We need to see what we have this year. Maybe next winter we decide to buy an ace, or maybe Duffy, Monty, and even Paulino tell us we don’t need to spend the money for the presumed couple of extra wins, instead we need a new 2B or or CF or new bat boy or whatever. The curse of youngsters is project-ability and this year will be a learning experience for both the kids and for the FO.
William Carl Grandi
1 year, 3 months agoClearly someone needs to point out the obtuseness in rhapsodizing “not blocking young pitchers” while failing to mention the fact that this organization resigned a 35 year old pitcher on a two year deal just a few months ago.
I have no problem with not adding Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson or any other free agent; but if those two would block a “prospect” on a one year deal, then shouldn’t we point out that the Front Office both misjudged the market early on and is obviously now working with a different “plan” than they had in November?
We should certainly give credit when it is due, but the hypocrisy in praising a move and condemning those who question a move/non-move is at best an appeal to authority. If failing or deciding not to sign Jackson or Oswalt is an example of “sticking to a plan” then giving an inferior pitcher a two year deal raises the question of what is the “plan?”
I think Dayton Moore’s recent comments have displayed his regrets in regards to the off-season. Sticking to the plan of developing talent via the farm is commendable, but I think we should be objective enough to point out the deviations from the “plan” as well.
I think we would be hard pressed to find more than a handful of times in the history of baseball that a starting pitching prospect that was truly ready has been blocked; furthermore, blocked to the point that it significantly hurt that pitcher’s development.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 3 months agoWilliam, good points. Blocked might have been too stong of a word. Slowed progress might have been a better chose of words on my part. If we did not have Chen signed I might have seen this whole thing differently. However when Chen was signed there was no one that would have said Oswalt and Jackson would have been available on a one year deal. Chen also has been a good mentor for the young left handers we have coming up. I don’t know enough about the two other guys. I guess my thoughts are if they are that good why are they still available.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“failing to mention the fact that this organization resigned a 35 year old pitcher on a two year deal just a few months ago.”
The 35 year old pitcher who has been the team’s biggest winner the last two years and is routinely mentioned as a mentor and resource by other members of the staff in interviews? It has been discussed at length, as has Oswalt’s age, injuries, and preferences for where he plays and the compelling fact that Edwin Jackson wasn’t being hotly pursued by all the GMs who supposedly are superior to Dayton Moore. One of the dream pitchers is unsigned the day before pitchers report, the other took a one-year NL contract. These guys aren’t CJ Wilson.
“Chen-Hate” is a meme in some corners of the blogosphere, but that likely results from the failure of so-called advanced metrics to understand why Master Chen has been successful. Perhaps the new FieldFX data will fill in the blanks and generate statistics that show off-balance swings or missing the sweet-spot or ability to pitch to where the defense is actually being played, rather than pie-segments on a chart. Or it may just be that Bruce Chen is this year’s Jeff Francoeur or Melky Cabrera, a handy target.
William Carl Grandi
1 year, 3 months agoLarry, I guess that also leads to another point… if Oswalt or Jackson were the best starter on the Royals staff, then how could they be the pitcher blocking any prospect?
Promoting players should be with intention of improving the MLB club, so if Montgomery is dominating in AAA we would be replacing the least productive of the 5 starters, if that is Oswalt on a one year deal or Chen on a two year deal, shouldn’t that be irrelevant?
William Carl Grandi
1 year, 3 months agoJim, I didn’t mean my post to come off as “Chen hate.” My point is that praising the front office for not blocking prospects by attempting to strengthen the rotation, while failing to mention that the Chen contract is contrary to that philosophy is at best short sighted.
General Managers are judged on what they did with 20/20 hindsight, and saying that Chen is the superior “mentor” to Oswalt or Jackson is not an assumption that I am willing to make. I’m also not willing to say that signing Chen was a poor decision at this point, that will be contingent on his performance.
William Carl Grandi
1 year, 3 months agoLary, you pointed out another problem with the wait and see attitude… if we are in contention at the All-Star break, the Royals run the risk at trading the next “John Smoltz” for a pitcher like Jackson or Oswalt for one or two years.
I would hope that the Royals have a good idea of what to expect from their rotation candidates, and the reason for not going after a free agent is because of those expectations and not because of uncertainty in what they have… which certainly may be the case.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 3 months agoWilliam, If Oswalt and Jackson were the best pitchers on the Royals staff how could they be the ones blocking. Well if you see them as long term fixtures on the Royals they wouldn’t be. I don’t see it that way. I also look at this from the stand point of 2012 being a second year of finding out what we have. If we are in contention at the break I see DM going after what ever we need. That would mean we have our core in place. Right now I just do not see that as a certainty. Also when Detroit traded Smoltz he was their entire minor league prospect and they didn’t evaluate him as they should have. Now days it takes several prospects to get a top starter. Example Greinke.
I guess as far as what we have, time will tell. I think the Royals have good evaluators. At least better than I am.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“while failing to mention that the Chen contract is contrary to that philosophy is at best short sighted.”
We have discussed that. I didn’t mean to come across too dogmatic on this.
My take is that the team is aiming for a ten win improvement and that Bruce Chen is a known quantity to the team, so is little risk as a fairly cheap #4 starter who can be expected to get 25 starts, put up an around 4.00ERA, and win another 12 or more games given that he’ll have an even better offense, defense, and bullpen behind him than the last two years. That makes him a poor man’s Billy, consistent and predictable, the team has a real good idea of what they’ll get in one spot in a rotation with questions on Hoch being for real the second half, the 2010 Sanchez showing up rather than 2011, last year’s 2.6 fWAR Paulino over 20 starts or the previous Paulino on the mound, or Danny Duffy the #2 ceiling starter as opposed to the DD who goes 3-2 on pitchers and walks batters after getting them down 0-2 and throws 110 pitches in four innings.
Without pretending to get inside GMDM’s brain, I wouldn’t be surprised that he needed Master Chen as something of a security blanket. Replacing Chen with Oswalt and his two degenerative discs, a condition I’m personally too familiar with, gives GMDM five serious question marks. Jackson might have been a better choice, but watching the blogs and news no one seemed to guess before a couple of weeks ago that Jackson could be had for one year, even assuming he would come to KC in the AL in a year leading up to what he hopes will be a big payday in ‘13. Jackson’s projected couple of win improvement over Chen would be worth about $9 million on the market but this year, with projections I’ve seen, including Scott McKinney’s excellent pieces, that would get us to 80 wins, which won’t do much good for just one year and likely wouldn’t replace Bruce Chen’s well-attested mentoring value to the young-uns. Camp starts tomorrow, we’ll see.
Good posts, William. Adorable baby:) Congratulations.
William Carl Grandi
1 year, 3 months agoLarry, well “long term fixtures” is Sanchez one of those? He is only under control one more year…
“I think the Royals have good evaluators. At least better than I am.”
I would certainly hope so, and that very well may be the reason why the only addition was Sanchez. Still the point remains, if a prospect’s performance is screaming for a promotion, the Royals will still have a decision to make on which starter that prospect replaces.
Ideally, as fans we should hope that the 5 starter that break camp in the rotation will make it a difficult decision on who will be replaced.
Now as you said with “it takes several prospects to get a top starter,” that cuts both ways… for the Royals to become the “sustainable” 90 win team we hope for, having starters blocking prospects is the what the Royals should strive for, this allows them to continually add prospects via trade.
Everyone likes to point to the Rays, well they traded Garza for the proverbial “boat load” of prospects and still had the pitching depth to win the Wild Card.
Adding Oswalt or Jackson or whoever should not be about avoiding a difficult decision in March or in June, instead is should be about adding as many of those types of difficult decisions as possible.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoNice to see you guys had fun while I was gone. OK, for starters, I think William has a valid point (at my expense): ANYBODY you sign blocks somebody. Fair enough.
But you’ve got to sign somebody if the prospects aren’t ready, so who do you sign?
Jim’s point (Bruce Chen’s been the Royals most consistent starter for the last two seasons) makes Chen an obvious candidate. Chen’s price, $4.5 million per year, compared to the $12 million Oswalt was rumored to be asking for, is another reason you’d want him on your roster, at least compared to Oswalt. (Apparently Oswalt’s asking price is down to $10 million and sinking).
Chen has said over and over again he wants to stay in Kansas City, Oswalt would be more likely to be a one-and-done deal. Chen’s a good fit in the clubhouse and, as Jim points out, has become a mentor to younger pitchers.
So all things considered, yeah, I think Oswalt (and that salary) would do more to block a prospect than Chen. Owners aren’t too thrilled about paying $10-12 million for a free agent and then not using him. To be fair, you could say the same thing about Chen; an owner wouldn’t be too thrilled to pay $4.5 million for a middle reliever either (although knowing him and the gratitude he feels towards the Royals for giving him a chance, Chen might be more willing to go to the pen if asked than Oswalt).
But I think the disgreement (if that’s what we’re having) comes down to how much of the future you give up for the present.
If the Royals reach the All-Star break and look like they’ve got a shot at the playoffs this year, I’d be surprised and disappointed if they didn’t go out and get some help, but I wouldn’t want to see them mortgage the future.
At this point, a free agent pitcher who wants $10 million dollars, has health issues and may not stick around for more than a season does not seem like a good deal for a team that’s still developing.
But that’s only the view from my couch in my family room: Dayton Moore may have a vantage point.
William Carl Grandi
1 year, 3 months agoThanks for the kind words Jim, she is amazing!
I have a ton of optimism about the direction of this organization, I don’t want that to get lost… but my hope is that the Royals are attempting to block prospects. What I mean by that, is putting together the best 25 man roster and acquiring talent that will help them win.
I think the concept of what minor league players are supposed to do for the MLB club has been lost in Kansas City. In my opinion, the goal should be creating a farm system where the talent in the minors are forcing difficult decisions and the reason for not signing a free agent is that they are not an upgrade over the current talent.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoBy the way: while looking up something else, I came across a slew of articles from 2009. Dayton Moore had urged Royals fans to “trust the process” and got raked over the coals for saying that. (Google it; interesting reading.)
Now some of those same critics are excited about this upcoming season and what the “process” has produced.
Moore was getting slammed for some of his less successful free-agent signings, but someone had to play here in Kansas City while the young talent worked its way through the system. That’s still true today—hence our “Roy Oswalt” discussion.
(One thing to remember about some of those signings: the Royals were being publicly criticized for pocketing revenue sharing money—one year they made a bigger profit than the New York Yankees—and I’ve heard there was some pressure to do some big spending to mollify the critics.)
There’s always a game plan, but ask a general manager if he’d be willing to trade his mother and he’ll want to hear what you’re offering. They never say never and they’re constantly adjusting the plan based on new information.
Let’s hope nobody has a better idea than Dayton Moore of who is almost ready to arrive in the big leagues and who is needed to fill in until that happens.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoWilliam: I think you’re making valid points and I agree with many of them. When I was still managing an amateur team I’d tell new players that if you’re worried about playing time, that’s a good thing. It means we have a lot of talent here.
But I didn’t have to pay those guys.
The Royals are at the bottom in payroll (at least according to one source) and the money they spend on free agents makes it harder to retain the young guys. If signing an Oswalt makes it harder to keep a Hosmer, I’m against it…although I’m almost positive the Royals don’t care what I think.
And I agree with Jim, cute kid. My youngest is now a senior at MU, so he’s not so hot on me snuggling with him. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“What I mean by that, is putting together the best 25 man roster and acquiring talent that will help them win.”
I think that time will come in ‘13, ‘14, and beyond, but see what you are saying. What I think makes this year different, as was last year, is that a couple of FAs won’t get us to a championship level simply because the position studs will need a year or two to click or fail. Next year could quite likely be a different story if we find that we are a Zack away from 90 or 95 wins, then I think they get aggressive with FA, but probably not prospect trades. It will take awhile until the system has the depth to start dealing, when instead of a surplus of #5 starters we have extra #2s or #3s that will get expensive with the pipeline still full. As is, we have plenty of #5s, an extra AAA DH, and several 4th OF, so we can’t trade from strength.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 3 months agoWilliam, couldn’t agree with you more, the hope is a farm system that has players pushing the 25 on the roster. I get concerned when I hear, so and so is a lock before spring training. We saw a good thing last year when Hosmer forced his way up. My concern is with high paid players that management has trouble pushing aside. Jose Guiene (I can’t spell). The only reason he was on the field in my opinion was because of the money we were paying. I hope the Royals never again ignor the farm system and keeps filling that pipeline. I just like a little more open space on the main roster so the pitchers in AAA can comeup and get some major league experience.
I agree cute kid.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoLarry: Trouble spelling ballplayers names? Welcome to my world. I double-check “Francoeur” every other day.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“Everyone likes to point to the Rays, well they traded Garza for the proverbial “boat load” of prospects and still had the pitching depth to win the Wild Card.”
I think we all agree that Tampa is the best role model for the Royals. Here’s baseball reference board on Tampa:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBD/
Our question could be where we are on the road to success. In ‘04 and ‘05, Tampa had Carl Crawford as highest value player, perhaps analogous to our Alex, and finished with 70 and 67 wins respectively. the next two years Scott Kasmir was the highest bWAR player and Tampa won 61 and 67 games. The following year they won 97 games, then 84, then 96 and 91. If we look at the progression of players we see five different players over eight years with bWAR of 3.9 and up to 7.6. We also see that Joe Maddon didn’t break out until his third season as manager.
For the Royals to reach a comparable point to Tampa, we’ll need to have the depth to trade a Duffy in six years or a Hochevar or Paulino in a couple, should they show they are real and Arguelles and Billo are ready to move up. In Ned Yost’s second full season, I think we are at about half way between the ‘07 and ‘08 Rays, 80-85 wins, so may be a touch ahead of schedule.
I hope that, like Tampa, we’ll reach the point where the system is self-sustaining, that only expensive veterans will need to be traded, and that we can use cash to extend young studs and not to buy FAs. That’s the perfect world, but life is seldom perfect:)
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoJim: As always, thanks for all the thought you put into your posts. I’m pretty sure I’ve gotten more information from you than you’ve gotten from me.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoThanks, it’s a toss-up. I appreciate the opportunity.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoJust a brief addendum, Tampa Bay got new ownership and a new GM in 2005 when they had had four players > bWAR 3.5 in ‘04 and already had Scott Kazmir on the staff. That wasn’t a horrible position for a new GM to be in and was a foundation to build on.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoSorry if any reader has tried to leave a comment in the past 24 hours and been unable to do so. They moved the site to a new server (like I know what THAT means) and things went kablooey for a while.
Things seem to be back to normal, or at least as normal as they ever get around here.
Jason Everett
1 year, 3 months agoSeriously long comments, and very very informative.
The nice thing in the end, and no one should forget this, they play the games. They HAVE TO PLAY THE GAMES!
On any given day, either team could win, which is why we play the whole 9 innings (or more).
Great comments guys, really good read.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoJason: Thanks, glad you enjoyed the site. People should not skip the comments; the readers often provide better material than I do.
Dave Beal
1 year, 3 months ago:) I so enjoy the fact that the usual Star commenter/haters don’t dig deep enough come ruin this site. Man, I have been preaching to stand pat and save the money for down the road retention of talent. IMO we don’t need Oswalt at all. If he was an Ace he wouldn’t still be a FA. The $6-8 Million we saved by using the known quantity Chen maybe goes towards retaining Sanchez for 2013 if he returns to form. And I think we could have the best or 2nd best rotation in our division. Sanchez, Hochevar, Chen, Paulino and Mendoza will begin the year barring injuries. I’d like to see Crow make it, but because of options I don’t think he will unless Mendoza struggles. I see Duffy going to AAA to begin the year and refine a few things. Really thee is an argument to be made that any one of those 1st four could be the staff ace. Does that mean we have four #4’s or four #2’s. That’s the real question and I lean towards the latter.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoDave: Thank you, I’m glad you’re enjoying the site. A lot of credit goes to the readers who post comments. For the most part, they’ve been reasonable and polite. As the saying goes, it’s possible to disagree without being disagreeable.
With this post—”Sticking with the plan”—I got pretty far out of my comfort zone. I generally try to stay out of GM issues. They’re complicated and there’s no way the public knows everything going on behind the scenes. There may be a very good reason a move is made or not made and that reason is often not made public.
Of course, once you concede that, it’s still possible to have opinions. So in my opinion: yeah, there would seem to be a reason Oswalt has not been snapped up. And, yeah, the money saved could be used to retain some of the people already here.
Like you, I see a lot of potential in the starting rotation, but at some point potential needs to be come reality. I’d assume the Royals will adjust the game plan as they go along. If they think they have a chance to compete this year, they’ll go one direction. If it looks like it’s a development year, they go another.
And it’s just that kind of deep insight that convinces me to stick with explaining the footwork involved in turning a double play.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoI’ve been seeing suggestions that Oswalt has rejected offers and decided to sit out til the break and hope St. Louis or Texas, the two teams he’s willing to sign with, need him for a second half run. Supposedly he turned down $10 million from Boston. Roger Clemons did something similar as I remember.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoTurning down $10 million, must be nice.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 3 months agopocket change