Last Wednesday was the 2012 Royals Awards Luncheon, so I drove out to the Overland Park Convention Center to say hello to a few team members and front office people. Here are some of the conversations:
Ned Yost: As Ned answered Star columnist Sam Mellinger’s questions, he also answered mine: How does managing change when the team shifts from developing players to winning?
Yost took a lot of heat for sticking with Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas through their offensive struggles. Ned thought it was the right thing to do. The Royals weren’t going to the playoffs, and Moose facing a tough left-hander now might prepare him for a more important at-bat later.
Ned said we’d probably see him pinch hit or pinch run more often in 2012. The Royals are shifting from developing young players for the future, to trying to win right now. I asked how that changed what he wanted from his bench. He said that’s why it was so important to sign Yuniesky Betancourt; it gives him some options.
I guess a manager can’t pinch hit for his shortstop if he doesn’t have another one on the bench. Russ Morman, Triple-A hitting coach for the San Francisco Giants, Blue Springs resident and someone who is willing to take my calls, said the same thing: To be a true utility infielder, you have to be able to handle short. Otherwise, the manager is limited in his decision-making, and your starting shortstop gets worn out.
I told Ned I hoped to talk more strategy with him this summer. If you ask a manager in a press conference why he went to a particular reliever or decided to pinch hit, he might interpret that as criticism, especially if the move didn’t work out. In my case (and I hope yours), I actually want to know. I assume Ned knows more than I do and I’d like to know what he knows. There’s always a reason a manager makes a move, and much of the time it’s based on information the general public doesn’t have.
Ned said he’d be willing to try that, but understanding why he did something and making me understand why he did something are two different things. If Ned thinks I really want to know, not score points off him by playing Monday-Morning Quarterback, he’ll be more patient and willing to run through the factors that went in to his decisions.
If this works out, we all benefit.
Alex Gordon: I’ve said this before (when has that ever stopped me?), but I think Alex Gordon has been misunderstood by much of the public, including me. When someone is really good, but quiet, we tend to project our feelings onto them: He must be arrogant or aloof. Once I got to know Alex, nothing was further from the truth. Watch the video where he tries to teach me to climb the wall and you’ll see what I mean. (Go to the home page and click on the “All Video” section.)
I asked how his winter workouts were going, and we started talking about Kevin Seitzer. Gordon is working with him again this winter, so I asked if they were working on something new or just trying to maintain his swing from last year. Turns out it’s mostly maintaining. Kevin asks his hitters to do something difficult: Drive the knob of the bat forward without moving the front shoulder.
Try it, you’ll see. It does not come naturally.
I told Alex I’d been working on it and every time I thought I had it, I’d show Kevin. He’d just shake his head and say, “Nope, that’s not it.” Gordon laughed and said he can’t tell when he’s doing it right either, but Seitzer tells him he is now. That was the big change in his 2011 approach. (Well, that and having an approach. Before 2011, Gordon said he was just up there hacking — it had always worked before. Now he has a definite approach to hitting: Trying to get the right pitch for his swing.)
Picture this: You’re looking down at a baseball field from directly above. When the pitcher throws the ball to home plate, imagine its line of travel. Now imagine the hitter swinging his bat and the bat head’s line of travel.
Before last season, Gordon’s bat would often go outside the ball’s line of travel (the side closer to left field) and come back to the ball. That’s what hitters mean when they say they “came around the baseball.” Now Gordon’s bat head often stays inside the ball’s line of travel. That’s what hitters mean when they say they “stayed inside the baseball.” (And if I described this incorrectly, I’m sure Kevin will let me know.)
What this means in practical terms is Alex can now stay “inside” a pitch on the inner half and hit a line drive up the middle. In the old days, he’d come “around” the baseball and hit a 4-3 grounder. (And if I described this incorrectly I’m sure Kevin will let me know.)
Mainly, Gordon is now laying off that inside pitch. In the old days he’d get something inside, “turn and burn” and try to crush the ball to right field. Now he’s waiting for something out over the plate that he can drive up the middle or to left and taking a more relaxed swing. Alex talked about muscling up and how tight a hitter gets when he tries to do that. Seitzer has advised him to swing at about 50 percent (I think he’d tell me to try for a bit more; I don’t have Gordon’s muscles…hell, I don’t have anybody’s muscles.) Game-time adrenaline will turn Gordon’s 50 percent into something much more.
All of which proves that Seitzer is the greatest hitting coach in the history of baseball. (I wonder if Kevin will think that description is OK.) Anyway, Gordon is now hitting several times a week with Kevin and invited me to watch a workout. More on that soon.
George Brett: “So you’re an expert on baseball now?”
“The bar isn’t set very high to be considered an expert in the media.”
George and I have known each other since the early 80s, and he never passes up the opportunity to ridicule my supposed expertise. That’s OK, I’m just repeating the stuff he told me.
Johnny Giavotella: Johnny had hip surgery in October and said he’s fully recovered. He’s been working on his defense, specifically his hands. If a player holds his hands too close to his body when the ball arrives, they have no give. There’s no place for them to go because they’re already back. You can see the same thing in the NFL when a receiver lets the ball get in on him and it bounces off his shoulder pads. Gio wants to get his hand farther out so he can cushion the ball as he funnels it toward his body.
He also said staying loose is a problem. Johnny’s muscular and can get too tight to play fluidly. (Wouldn’t know, never had the problem.) Game-time adrenaline doesn’t help. I told him what Chris Getz told me about the move to short: Everything was fine during infield practice, but during the game, everything speeds up and it’s hard to stay relaxed and fluid. Johnny agreed.
The only cure is game-time repetitions, and those are hard to come by. As far as Gio knows, the competition for second base is wide open and will be decided during spring training.
Eric Hosmer: It’s easy to forget how big Hos is: I did. I walked up to shake hands and was looking up the entire time. (Or maybe I’m shrinking, not sure which.) Eric was getting an award at lunch and another one in the afternoon. I asked, “How are you going to keep from becoming a –-? (Let’s say I said jerk.) You’re getting too much adulation.”
Hosmer laughed and pointed at Mitch Maier and said, “I’ll just keep hanging out with him.”
Dean Taylor: Dean is the assistant GM and has always made time to stop and chat before games. He said it was great to see how excited fans were about the 2012 Royals, but now the pressure was on to actually go out and win.
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
Robert Blakey
1 year, 4 months agoBrian Robinson
1 year, 4 months agoAnother great read Lee. George Brett seems like a jokster, always poking a little fun.
I’m getting geared up for the season but concerned because it still doesn’t look like the Royals have a true #1 on the rotation.
Have you heard anything about the possibility of another FA signing (like Roy Oswalt)?
Robert: I’d been in a lot of clubhouses, but never as a reporter until 2010. I asked Tim Bogar (a friend of mine and bench coach for the Red Sox) how to handle it and he gave me several excellent pieces of advice. “Make your first encounter positive” was one of them.
Tim told me that when a new member of the media appears in the clubhouse, nobody knows what he’s after. That’s why players speak in cliches until they trust you. It’s hard to get burned by saying “I’m just happy to be here.”
Same goes for managers: If you ask, “Why did you go to Smith in the 7th?” and Smith got lit up, the manager might interpret that as criticism.
Once he gets to know you and is convinced you’re not trying to do a hatchet job on anybody, you might get an honest answer. So Ned needs to believe I really want to know why he makes the moves he makes. Part of that will be asking about moves that worked out as well as those that failed.
Yost already talks about many of the most obvious moves, but I’d also like to ask about defensive shifts, bringing the infield in, some of the stuff that doesn’t get talked about as often. If Ned is comfortable talking about that, it should be fascinating and gives fans some insight into the thinking of a major league manager.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoOK, the web site is now not recognizing me, Lee Judge. (I’m sure my wife would like to pull the same trick.) That last comment about talking with Ned Yost and this one, is by me, Lee Judge.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoOK, it’s recognizing me again…neat.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoBrian: You’re right, George Brett is always up for some fun. Most ballplayers are. It’s one of the reasons I find their company enjoyable: they’re as immature as I am.
As far as acquiring a number one pitcher goes: I’ve got no inside information on that. I did hear Oswalt wanted a LOT of money.
The good news is there are signs that Luke Hochevar is about to take a step forward. Former pitching coach, Bob McClure, told me it takes about four full seasons for most major league players to “get it.” Understanding what they have to do to be consistently successful at the big league level does not come right away. Hoch just finished his fourth full year.
Luke also showed improved ability to focus pitch after pitch (harder than it sounds) and to pitch inside.
The Royals also appeared to have improved the bullpen and that might translate into fewer blown saves, another way to up the win total.
The defense is also way better than 2010 or at the beginning of last year. That means more balls caught and pitchers more willing to throw strikes and rely on their defense.
So while it would be nice to add an ace, there is still some reason to believe that the pitching will improve in 2012.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoOne of the new features of this web site is that every time we post something new, the old stuff disappears. (We’re working on it.) Also, if you have too many words in a post, the site won’t allow it.
So shortly before today’s new post was going to go up a reader asked a question and I wrote a long answer, which he now can’t see. So I’m going to try to recreate the exchange in a series of posts…enjoy.
Dave Beal to me: Great article again! This is not really related to the ARTICLE, but I have two things I’d like to hear your opinion on sometime.
1.) Players discussing their approach in the media, because the media asks. Don’t you think the players are taking an advantage out of their arsenal by tipping off the next day’s or future opponents? I flippin’ hate that!!!
2.) The SF Giants pitching success. I know they are a NL team with a favorable ballpark. I know they have talented pitchers. But Tim Lincecum, (whom the Royals passed over in the draft because they thought he was too small and wouldn’t holdup to anything but a RP role) pitches with a different theory of mechanics than most major league pitchers.
When I was coaching American Legion baseball I tried to better myself by reading up a lot on pitching. In a nutshell, Lincecum uses a longer stride (90% of body height) and creates the momentum with his legs. This approach has proved very successful as he both pitches with a higher velocity than you would expect from his frame, and he has proven very durable and healthy despite his smaller size and workhorse load.
My question has to do with the entire San Francisco starting pitcher staff staff, and whether they have tried to take a lesson from Lincecum and incorporate it into their philosophy, or did they really just acquire a bunch of pitchers with that much ability. Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Sanchez etc. My main purpose for asking in an article out of context is because if in fact they are emulating Lincecum, perhaps there is a narrow window of opportunity to be capitalized on with the addition of Sanchez that could benefit some of our other pitchers. Only a person with your insight and contact with the players and coaches could perhaps both evaluate that, and bring it to the attention of the right person. Just FYI, Dick Mills of pitching.com was the source for the mechanics. Lincecum is his star pupil. There is more to it than a long stride obviously. Thanks and sorry for bringing it up here.
Dave Beal 6 hours, 21 minutes ago
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoMe to Dave Beal: In answer to your first comment: I doubt players are giving much away by discussing their approach with the media. For the most part, everybody knows about everybody else. Hitters are given scouting reports on pitchers and vice versa. And they all look at video. If it’s someone new, somebody else has probably faced him somewhere, (minors, etc.) and will give everybody a heads up.
Before games I sometimes walk around asking hitters how they’ll be pitched that night so I can watch for that pattern during the game. They always know, based on past experience. (I’d do the same with the starting pitcher, but you don’t talk to the starter unless he talks to you first…baseball tradition.)
The base stealers also know who they can run on before the game starts. An average major league catcher gets the ball to second base on a steal attempt in 2.0 seconds “pop to pop” (from the time the ball “pops” in the catcher’s mitt to the time the ball “pops” in the middle infielder’s glove). Pitchers vary more: a pitcher that gets the ball to home in 1.2 seconds is fast (Detroit’s Benoit) a pitcher who gets it there in 1.5 seconds is slow (Detroit’s Valverde). Chris Getz, for instance, can beat a 1.3 delivery time. So when he’s on first with Benoit on the mound, both team know he’s probably not running. When Getz is on first with Valverde on the mound, both teams know he’s probably going. Which is why you see a pitcher throwing over to first again and again: he knows if he doesn’t do something to disrupt the runner, the runner can steal the base.
I asked Doug Sisson, Royals first base coach, if we could publish opposition pitcher’s delivery times because everybody on both teams knows how fast the pitchers and runners are, the only people left out are the fans. Doug said, “And if they’d bring a stopwatch, they’d know, too.” (We might be able to publish those times next season, we’ll see.)
Anyway, this is a long way of saying everybody playing in the game already knows what everybody else does. Fans are the ones left out…which I’m hoping to change.
Lee Judge
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoMe to Dave Beal: In answer to your second comment: I’m on thin ice when it comes to pitching mechanics (they’re complicated), but here goes: If a guy has solid, classic mechanics, it’s reassuring. It’s a pitching motion that puts the least amount of stress possible on the pitcher’s body. So a scout might look at Tim Lincecum and say, with that body and those mechanics, he’s an arm injury waiting to happen, we’ll pass.
The flip side of unusual mechanics is that it can make the ball move in unusual ways. Mitch Williams pitched like he was falling out of a tree, but it gave him movement. It also appeared that he didn’t know where the ball was going half the time.So a guy who does everything in the “right” way, might be costing himself movement and a guy who does things in the “wrong” way might be gaining movement, but at the risk of injury and being inconsistent.
What’s great about baseball (or at least one of the great things about baseball) is that you can’t predict what will work and what won’t with 100% accuracy. Clint Hurdle once said, “Name a hitting flaw and I’ll name a Hall of Famer who has it.”
Tim Lincecum is making a long stride work for him: most pitchers can’t. When most pitchers over stride, their bodies get too far out in front of their arms. The arm never catches up and the ball goes high. But that’s “most” pitchers, not all of them.
I don’t have any insight into what the Giants are doing with their staff. That’s the downside of trying to report on one team in detail: I know next to nothing about other teams. I haven’t met pitching coach Dave Eiland or pitcher Jonathan Sanchez yet, but I plan to ask about pitching philosophy and what the Royals will stress in 2012.
Dave, I hope I’ve come somewhere close to answering your questions.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 4 months agoDang, if you did all that from memory you’re good. Sounds almost word for word that I read this morning. Can understand why managers and coaches are slow to trust media people. This is a gotcha society we live in. Also, not that anyone has ever been misquoted by the media. Was going to attend the awards program but got called out of town at the last minute. After reading your post I think I should have called in sick.
One thing I have always enjoyed about Spring Training is the access to the past stars. Have had some interesting conversations with Dennis Leonard, Willie Wilson and John Mayberry. Things the average fan just doesn’t get to do during the regular season.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoLarry: I was smart enough (pretty rare I get to say that about myself) to copy the comment and my response when I saw what was about to happen.
And you’re right about trusting the media: Bogar said when a player speaks in cliches it’s usually because he either doesn’t know or trust the person he’s talking with…although some players just speak in cliches all the time.
Players want to know what you’re about. Will you take any slip of the tongue and blow it up? Will you think short-term and print something juicy even though it will cost you access in the future?
Fortunately, all I care about is how the game is played and most players think that’s fair game. Plus, in baseball, if you missed the cutoff man, it’s pretty obvious: there’s no place to hide. The players I’ve dealt with I’ve been very good about owning up to mistakes.
You also named one of the best things about spring training: access to players. Things are usually quite a bit more relaxed there and I’ve seen players stop and chat with fans on many occasions.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoLee, Tim Lincecum is something of the poster child for long-toss, as in those two links I posted a couple of weeks ago. The Royals haven’t been receptive to that type of training, although I’ve heard that that is changing now.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: One of the things I need to do in 2012 is spend more time with the pitchers. I’ll be interested in meeting the new pitching coach and hearing his thoughts on the Royals staff.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 4 months agoNo one wants Hochevar to take the next step more than me but it seems that his progress has been slow. I’m not expecting the reincarnation of Brett Saberhagen but it would be nice to keep an ERA closer to 3.50 and the length of his average start to creep towards the 7th inning.
Do you honestly think the Royals can rely on him as the staff ace? If the organization is serious about taking the next step and being competitive it must acquire a top notch starter.
Johnathan Sanchez has amazing stuff but can’t find the plate enough to take on the opposing team’s best pitcher each time out because he rarely lasts deep into games.
I’m excited about every aspect of the Royals’ team except the #1 starting pitcher. Heck I’m even excited about how the rotation looks from 2 - 5, but the lack of a true #1 is pretty glaring in my opinion.
I hope Hochevar proves me wrong.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoLee, my long-toss expert says that he is hearing good things about the new pitching regime, so I’m optimistic.
When you’re at spring training, keep an eye out for pitchers in the outfield throwing corner-to-corner. If things have changed enough, you’ll likely see Hoch and Monty among them. I’m told Hoch was an L-T (saving some letters) in college when he threw an effortless and smooth 98mph with a nasty slider, and Montgomery has trained L-T, but his training was changed at Omaha.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoBrian: This isn’t the first time I’ve written about the difficulty of predicting an athlete’s future performance, so I’d be the first to admit I really don’t know if Luke Hochevar will turn into a true number one pitcher.
All I can say is he was better at the end of 2011 than he was at the beginning of the season for the reasons I’ve already stated.
When Dayton Moore was asked about signing a free agent starting pitcher in the off-season, he said there just wasn’t much out there this year. I assume that’s part of the reason they decided to strengthen the bullpen instead.
We’ll see how that works out.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: My ETA for spring training keeps changing. Orginally they wanted me there for the entire six weeks, now it sounds like my stay will be much shorter.
Whenever I get there I’ll try to track down Dave Eiland and see what he has to say.
Jason Everett
1 year, 4 months agoLee, interestingly enough about Alex Gordon’s muscles; not sure if many people had the opportunity to go to the charity event this weekend, Challenge Your Fashion, but apparently they did a skit including Alex, Eric and “the Man!” Billy Butler.
Apparently at some point they had a “push-up contest” and removed their shirts so they wouldn’t get “sweaty” - if Eric is ripped, then Alex is… well, what’s something that means “more than ripped”.
That guy has muscles on muscles that most people didn’t even know existed.
I have high hopes for the team this year, and I think Alex is a great cornerstone for the team.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJason: One of the more depressing things a middle-aged cartoonist can do is walk through a clubhouse full of world-class athletes who have their shirts off.
Lots of guys (including Alex) appear to have 0% body fat. That’s when I go over and stand by the pitchers, there are some incredible arms attached to some real bad bodies in that section.
Scott Matteson
1 year, 4 months agoI think it would be a good idea to spend more time with the pitchers, I believe it was suggested before, but I think it would give you a better insight as to how the pitcher may think in different situations and hitters. We are a “flakey” bunch, that is for sure ! Let me know if you need someone to fetch your beer for you in Phoenix, I could use a break from the Midwest !!
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoScott: Talking with the pitchers isn’t as easy as talking with the position players. You don’t talk to the starter before the game (baseball tradition) and afterwards he’s swarmed by everybody else. Which makes it hard to do more than ask a question or two.
During BP, a prime time to talk to position players, pitchers stay out in the outfield and shag. If they’re doing early work they usually do that down in the bullpen.
Clearly, it’s not impossible to talk to pitchers, and I need to do more of it, but there’s generally less access.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoMitch Maier, Brayan Pena and Chris Getz have all now signed. Mitch seems likely to be the fourth outfielder, although he recently told me nothing’s for sure. He said he just gets ready for spring training, does his best and can’t control the rest.
Brayan seems likely to be backup catcher, depending on what Manny Pina does in spring training.
The most interesting situation is second base. It’s likely either Chris Getz or Johnny Giavotella will go to Omaha if they don’t land the starting job.
Who knows that they’ve been doing this winter, but right now Getz appears to be the most complete player. He’s better defensively and more versatile offensively.
Giavotella’s power separates him from Chris, so it depends on what the Royals want out of that spot. If they’re trying to win now, they may go with Chris. If they’re trying to develop Johnny, it depends on whether they think that’s best served by him going back to Omaha or staying here and facing big-league pitching.
And there’s always the chance that there’s some factor I’ve overlooked that will decide things.
In any case, once they start playing games in Surprise, keep your eye on what’s happening at second base.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoOK, now Luke Hochevar, Felipe Paulino and Jonathan Sanchez have all signed. (Gotta keep checking my email). The only player who hasn’t signed as of yet is Alex Gordon.
Darral VanGoethem
1 year, 4 months agoLee, I know you don’t typically like to play GM but I think that if the Royals don’t sign Gordon to an extension that buys out some of his Free Agent seasons then it will send the wrong message to the very young team that is growing that the Royals don’t take care of their own, home grown, talent. Here is a guy in Gordon who has seemingly done everything that the Royals have asked him to do. He was probably rushed to the bigs a year early. He failed. Got injured alot. Failed. Got sent down to AAA twice and switched positions. Then he blows up 2 years away from Free Agency and it doesn’t seem like they are that interested in signing him to a long term deal. That just sends a bad message to the players that are coming up. “Do it our way but we won’t take care of you. We will just be content with maximizing your talents on the cheap to maximize the bottom line.” That kind of attitude could cause the players to play more for themselves instead of the team and the little things that Yost and the rest of the coaching staff preach about taking the extra base and sacrificing at bats to move guys over may not happen as much.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoDarral: You bring up the key issue: will the Royals pay to keep their young, talented players? David Glass has expressed an interest in signing Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas to long-term deals. I’d think they’d want to do the same for Alex Gordon.
If the Royals do not sign the talent they develop (which has been their pattern in the past) then we know ownership is willing to develop players for other teams, talk about winning while not paying the price for doing so and pocket a profit.
Fans are excited about this team and they should be. But if ownership won’t pay the price of winning that excitement will go away in a hurry.
Since Dayton Moore’s arrival ownership has been better about spending money and they deserve credit for that. Let’s hope it continues. This community will be incredibly disappointed otherwise.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoI think everybody is getting a bit ahead of themselves on Alex. It’s mid-January, both Gordon and GMDM have made it clear they’re looking for a deal, and the Royals have the money, IF they aren’t looking at wasting a bunch of it on Roy Oswalt or some other FA. Suggestions have been made that any Gordon contract will be front-loaded with a signing bonus and there’s probably a lot of details on performance bonuses and even length of contract that need to be worked on. I wouldn’t get excited for a few more weeks, and even then we need to remember that Alex is selling high after a career year at age 27. We love the guy, but it can be legitimately asked if four years at big money is wise.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: I think you’re right. Both sides have expressed a desire to get a deal done, so there’s no reason to believe the Royals and Gordon won’t work out an agreement.
Maybe that’s a trend. In the past, the Royals have let some fabulous talent walk away. Here’s hoping those days are over.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoIn defense of “the past”, Damon was bound and determined to go for the big money and we lost Beltran over $1 million out of $41 million, always thought that was poor communication and hurt feelings as much as money.
Since GMDM arrived and David Glass advanced on his ownership learning curve, the Royals have been more proactive about keeping their young talent and Dayton Moore has more assets available to keep them. I expect Alex Gordon to sign for around half again the deal Billy took and for there to be heavy incentives and a signing bonus so that Alex isn’t getting his biggest money at the same time that the young studs are starting to hit arbitration. Important thing for Moore is to try to smooth out spikes in payroll, keep the average over the next five years or so under about $70 million while keeping the farm stocked so that if a star does decide that he doesn’t want to extend, he can be traded a year before FA for a big pile of prospects with a Wil Myers or Cheslor Cuthbert or Yem Prades or Bubba Starling at Omaha ready to take his place.
Unfortunately, I don’t see Hoz or Moose retiring as Royals in 15 years, but I do see the Process keeping the Royals as an upper tier team for 15 years. In a small market, that’s the best we can hope for.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoYeah, one coach told me what a great looking player Hosmer was and then said “You’ll have a hard time keeping him.”
Larry Tindle
1 year, 4 months agoBeen thinking that all the young talent coming on board at the same time could be a killer down the road. All these guys will hit arbitration and free agency at about the same time. That will be very hard to deal with finacially. Not sure how all this works finacially, as I have a hard time just balancing my check book. Guess that’s why there are accountants.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoLarry, that’s the challenge for Dayton Moore, if unable to sign a star being sure that there is a reload available in the minors. That is why I so vehemently oppose trading Wil Myers or Cheslor Cuthbert for a second level pitcher who will get us a couple more wins this year and next. In two years, when Gordon could go FA without an extension and the Handsome Frenchman’s contract is up, we could see an outfield of Wil Myers, Lorenzo Cain, and Yem Prades with a total cost of a couple of million. If Billy goes FA in a few years, the still cheap Moose can go to DH and Cheslor come up at 3rd. Escobar’s in the bank for several more years, but Moore has been grabbing Caribbean SS’s the last few years. Of our future stars, the one I would be trying hardest to extend this coming year is Savior Perez, because great defensive catchers with decent sticks are rare and hard to develop.
Brian Courington
1 year, 4 months agoLee, thanks for all the insight, it is one of the first things I in the read every morning during the season. Being a transplanted Royals fan in Houston, TX, makes it difficult to get any good info and what I read here is really good and different than I have seen anywhere else. I also appreciate the civil discussion in the comments section that is missing on almost every other site.
Lee, you probably don’t remember but, it was great meeting you last August, the day Gio got called up, when I was in KC. I have plans to be at spring training for a few days in mid-march. If they figure out your travel plans and you are there would be great to talk again. Thanks again to all who contribute, GO ROYALS!
Larry Tindle
1 year, 4 months agoJim, great post. I agree it is very important to keep the pipeline full. See a lot of teams that build from within, then forget to keep filling the minors. Also I would like to think, that when we achieve greatness, guys would be less likely to walk. I know that is probably a dream but what else do I have at this point. The days of a player being only on one team their entire career is slim, much like the rest of us staying in one job our entire career. Just call me old school.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoLarry: You have hit on the downside of all the young talent arriving at once. Of course, nobody is more aware of the problem than Dayton Moore. It will be interesting to see how the organization plans to deal with it.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: Larry’s right, you know a lot more about these GM issues than I do, which makes your participation here invaluable.
There is another school of thought: put all your chips on the table and try to win now. Someone within the organization told me they’d like to see the Royals trade whatever they have in the pipeline, get the pitching they need right now and take a shot at winning a championship in the next few years.
That’s a high-risk approach and would mean a talent-drought down the road. I’m not smart enough to know which is the better path for the team.
But some people think you don’t get that many chances to win the whole thing and you need to take risks when that opportunity presents itself.
I’d be happy to hear everybody’s thoughts.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoBrian: Thank you. The civil discourse on this site is due to the readers. People like Jim Fetterolf and Larry Tindle add immeasurably to the content of the site.
The players and coaches deserve credit also. They’ve given me access and their insight makes the game more enjoyable.
(Alex Gordon invited me to one of his batting practice sessions which I’ll write about this weekend.)
I don’t know when I’ll be in Surprise, the situation keeps changing, but please stop by and say hello if you spot me down there.
Darral VanGoethem
1 year, 4 months agoJim, I agree with what you are saying and you are right Gordon’s contract has to be structured in such a way that it is front loaded while the young studs are making paultry sums. I was just saying that he bought into what the Royals were preaching to him, succeeded at the approach and now deserves to be rewarded for that commitment level. I just think that it sends the wrong message to Hosmer, Moose, Perez and whoever else that you want to include in the convo, if you take a wait and see approach with him again this season. Of course GMDM and Gordon are going to both say they want to get a deal done. However, I would say that the lack of a deal is a bit of a red flag at this point b/c the previous two offseasons they have had Butler and Soria locked down on deals that have bought out the first few years of their free agency before Spring Training. I think that if GMDM did that then he could then get Hosmer and Moustakas to sign deals that would buy them out of maybe their last two years of arb and then 2 yrs of free agency. That would put Hosmer at 28 and Moose at 29 when they would hit free agency. At that age I would be ok with them walking to a team willing to give them $20mil/yr and let the farm system take its course.
You are right about Damon too. He was looking to break the bank. I hate the “friend of a friend” lines but in this case I had that with Damon when he was approaching Free Agency. And the mutual friend told me flat out that Damon would never sign with the Royals. He wanted the $$.
Sorry, got off subject there. I just think it shows a great deal to the young players and the fans that the Royals are serious about signing their own talent to deals that at least buy out a couple of free agent years and rewards that talent by saying “we believe” in you so much that we are willing to overpay based on what you may get in arbitration as a reward for buying into our way of playing baseball and as a bonus the player doesn’t have to worry about going through the arbitration process.
Baseball history, steriod era aside, shows that it makes little to no sense to give a player a 10 year deal at $18-$25mil per. I would be fine with the Royals “over spending” on their home grown LEGIT talent after they prove themselves for 2 yrs, however, if it meant they were hitting free agency at 28, 29 or 30 instead of 26,27,28. It is pretty well shown that even the best players start to slide in production after 30 or 31. Let some other team over pay for a player for those last 8-10 yrs and let the Royals pay for their most productive years.
Lee, can’t wait to hear about your batting practice session with Gordon and Seitz.
Darral VanGoethem
1 year, 4 months agoJim, a question for you?? Why is spending money on Roy Oswalt a waste of money on a one year deal that is incentive laden. Maybe something structured like this: $5mil guaranteed, $2mil in incentives based on IP and maybe another $2mil based on Wins or something like that?? Then if this year isn’t the year, spin him off at the trading deadline and get a mid level prospect or two from a contender.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months ago“Why is spending money on Roy Oswalt a waste of money on a one year deal that is incentive laden.”
In my view it is because Roy Oswalt won’t take us from the 81 or so wins that many are projecting for the club this year to the 95 wins we need to have a shot at winning the Series. I have suggested that better is to keep Duffy in the rotation and bring Monty up when Sanchez is traded mid-season, get a better feel for our young guys and for Hochevar and Paulino, see if they are “fer realz”, then decide whether signing a real ace, Zack Greinke comes to mind, in ‘13 will take us from a possible 90 wins to 95. I’ve seen Zips projections that have Oswalt adding two wins for us this coming year. Ned Yost suggested something similar last season, that the Royals weren’t going to trade the farm or break the bank to go from 80-85 wins, but things might be different to go from 90-95 wins. I think the Royals are a better team in ‘13 and beyond if we save the $8 million, give Duffy a full year in the rotation, and have room for Montgomery to come up at the trade deadline.
“That’s a high-risk approach and would mean a talent-drought down the road.”
Lee, going “all-in” is, I think a confession of failure. Milwaukee tried that last year and got some play-off games in exchange for the farm, and now look to be pretty much a non-factor for some years to come with Zack, at least, gone after this year, while the Royals, recipients of part of the Brewers’ farm, have Shortstop Jesus, Lorenzo Cain, and a highly rated prospect in JaKKKKe Odorizzi. I think GMDM is committed to keeping us in the position where we can trade a veteran for four prospects, that’s the way to keep the pipeline full and be able to reload while keeping a competitive team on the field.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: Thanks for the information. As always, you’re contribution to the site is enormous.
Robert Blakey
1 year, 4 months agoWe can always trade for a starter come July if we are in contention and have an issue with one of our frontline guys. Would obviously have to be the right deal. I agree it would be unwise to stunt Duffy’s growth for nothing.
Darral VanGoethem
1 year, 4 months agoRobert, I don’t think trading for an in-season starter is the way to go. That will most likely prove to be more costly from a prospect perspective then trying to trade for one in the off season.
Jim, I think we may just have to agree to disagree on this subject. I think that Oswalt is well worth $4mil guaranteed and definitely worth $8-$9mil if he meets the aforementioned incentive escalators. If you put any stock in adjusted W/L record. (I don’t know if you do but it is an interesting thing). The Royals adjusted W/L record last year was 78 games. That means that just basically by the ball bouncing a different way, to use another sports cliche, this season, they should see an increase in W/L’s over last year by 7 games. I see Oswalt’s value at closer to gaining another 6-7 games, not just 2 games. That puts them at 84-85 wins. Which in this division in ‘12 may very well put them in the hunt. And if they are on pace to still not be in the hunt by the trade deadline and Oswalt is healthy, then dump him to a contender for a B level prospect.
Like Lee said, however, I always thoroughly enjoy your comments on this blog and I check this thing multiple times throughout the day during the season. I will also say that we typically agree more than we disagree when I read your opinions on here. Looking forward to more discussion throughout the season.