I’d only been writing about the Royals for a few months when I happened to get on a stadium elevator with one of the team’s front-office executives. I recognized him but didn’t think he recognized me. Then he said, “I’m a big fan of what you do.”
“Are you talking about the cartoons or the web site?”
“Both, but right now I’m talking about the web site.”
I’d just written a piece about Brian Bannister’s 1-0 win over the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. I pointed out that Jason Kendall had blocked six pitches in the dirt that day. Two kept a double play in order that was later turned. One kept a runner on second who was later thrown out at the plate trying to score on a single. Three came with runners standing on third base.
Bannister pitched great, but without Kendall’s efforts, no win.
The executive appreciated someone noticing what Kendall had done, then added, “And I really like that you don’t play GM.” It hadn’t occurred to me to try. I had my hands full attempting to understand how the game was played and how these particular guys were playing it. Commenting on trades, contracts and players on other teams seemed well beyond me.
But that comment stuck with me. It made me think not only about what I should be doing on the website, but also what I shouldn’t be doing. And that brings me to Jonathan Broxton and the three simple words that people are often reluctant to say: “I don’t know.”
When people learn that I write about baseball, they’ll ask questions that I’m not qualified to answer. “Should the Royals have signed Broxton?” is one of those questions. It’s not that it’s wrong to speculate on how he’ll fit in or what that means for Aaron Crow’s chances of starting or any of the other topics that keeps a baseball junkie busy during the winter. But it’s good to keep in mind that I really don’t know what it all means.
After the 2010 season, Alex Gordon appeared to be playing his way out of the big leagues. I didn’t know he was going to change his game, be a legitimate contender for a spot on the All-Star team, win a Gold Glove and hit .303.
I also didn’t know that Melky Cabrera was going to hit .305 and play some of the best baseball of his career. I didn’t know that Jeff Francoeur was going to lose weight and have a terrific comeback season. I didn’t know that Greg Holland was going to figure things out, Joakim Soria was going to be inconsistent or Mike Aviles was going to struggle to make the switch to second base. Not only did I not know those things were going to happen, the players involved didn’t know they were going to happen.
And if I didn’t know what was going to happen in 2011, how can I be sure about what’s going happen in 2012?
If Jonathan Sanchez blows out an elbow and Cabrera puts up an even better year, that’s going to look like a bad trade. If Sanchez begins to find the strike zone on a regular basis and Cabrera decides to have seconds on dessert all winter, Dayton Moore will look like a genius. If you try to figure out what will happen to these players in 2012, the best anyone can do is make an educated guess. Moore once told me that you could make a case to fire any general manager if you only looked at his failures. And he’s right.
Predicting the future performance of an athlete is complicated. And I haven’t even talked about money, or how a player’s signing affects another player, or clubhouse chemistry, or how one trade is really a prelude to another trade down the road. Moore has a complicated puzzle to put together, and I think it’s safe to assume he knows a few more things about that puzzle than I do.
Like I said, I’m trying to understand one thing: How the players the Royals put on the field play the game. I can tell you that Francoeur is great at playing the wall, that Gordon charges the ball really well, that Chris Getz is a smart baserunner, that Eric Hosmer is making the rest of the Royals infield better, that other teams were pitching Mike Moustakas up in the zone and getting him to fly out, that if Alcides Escobar hits the ball to right field he has a chance to be a good offensive player, that Brayan Pena’s throws to second tail toward right field and that Luke Hochevar has trouble throwing strikes out of a slide step.
But I can’t tell you if any of them should be traded.
The factors that go into acquiring, trading or letting a player go are complex and the public rarely knows everything that goes into a transaction. So I’ll stick with my main job: watching these guys play and sharing what I’ve learned.
Because if I tried to play GM, I’d only be playing.
Projecting performance
The Star’s Sam Mellinger recently posted some predictions about the 2012 Royals. These projections of individual performance were made by Bill James and can be found on Sam’s blog, “Don’t Kill the Mellinger.” (Man, we love the cute names, don’t we?)
I decided to find out what James said last year at this time to see how accurate those projections were. I found some of what I was looking for on the web site, “Royals Review.” (Thanks, guys.) Assuming I transcribed these numbers correctly (and I screw up my checkbook on a regular basis, so beware) here’s what Bill James thought some of the Royals would do in 2011 followed by what they actually did while with the Royals in 2011.
The first set of numbers are projected 2011 batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage followed by actual 2011 batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage [the numbers in the brackets].
•Mike Aviles: .287/.320/.414 [.222/.261/.395]
•Wilson Betemit: .261/.333/.442 [.281/.329/.476]
•Billy Butler: .307/.377/.476 [.291/.361/.461]
•Melky Cabrera: .267/.332/.386 [.305/.339/.470]
•Eric Hosmer: .283/.333/.474 [.293/.334/.465]
•Kila Ka’aihue: .254/.357/.451 [.195/.295/.317]
•Mitch Maier: .267/.331/.383 [.232/.345/.337]
•Mike Moustakas: .297/.334/.510 [.263/.309/.367]
Some of the projections were fairly accurate and some were way off. Some may have been thrown off by sample size: the player in question didn’t get the number of at-bats that James thought he would. Although in some cases, take Aviles or Ka’aihue, if the projections had been accurate, they might have gotten those at-bats.
Admittedly, I’m looking at a very small sample of James’ work, but the pattern seems to be that if the player performed very close to his career averages, the predictions were fairly accurate. If the player did something out of the norm, much better or much worse, the predictions weren’t so hot.
Which is kind of like saying I’m a terrific weather forecaster as long as the weather doesn’t change, but if something extreme happens, a hurricane or Melky Cabrera hitting 30 points above his career average, I’m likely to miss it. Here’s another example of a James 2011 projection from “Royals Review” that makes that point:
Adam Dunn: .247/.373/.511/39 HR
Now here’s what he actually did:
.159/.292/.277/11 HR
Predicting that Cabrera, Jeff Francoeur and Alex Gordon are likely to fall off in 2012 makes sense…mathematically. They played better than normal in 2011 and statistically, it’s likely that they’ll have some regression toward their career averages, but that ignores the fact that players do change. George Brett spent one All-Star break working with Charlie Lau and was a different hitter from then on.
Like I said about playing GM, predicting the future performance of athletes is hard. No wait, I’ve got that wrong — predicting the future performance of athletes is easy. Doing it accurately is the hard part.
The science of scorekeeping
My wife once told me that one of her biggest disappointments in life was meeting me and finding out how the Kansas City Star’s editorial board actually worked. (I’m not sure how big a role meeting me played in her disappointment, but I’m guessing it was significant.)
People assume professionalism and competence on the part of any organization they know nothing about. I’ve worked in the food industry and can tell you that one trip to a restaurant’s kitchen during the dinner rush will quickly kill that notion.
According to the new player’s agreement, team officials and players can no longer ask the official scorekeeper to reconsider a decision. Clubs now have to send video to Major League Baseball to appeal calls. Having spent a couple of years in the press box, I can tell you that scorekeeping is not an exact science.
The scorekeeper makes a call and a team representative who thinks his guy got screwed will go over to complain. An argument ensues, and sometimes a decision gets changed. Sometimes the complaining party is just putting up a fight for his guy. Sometimes the call was clearly wrong and they’ve got a justifiable complaint.
All I know for sure is the press box is now going to be a lot less entertaining. I really enjoyed watching someone be mad at anybody that wasn’t me.
More new rules
Players are now banned from getting tattoos with corporate logos. Because Major League Baseball does not want commercialism to ruin the image of this great game while it’s being played at Progressive Field, Citizen’s Bank Park, Safeco Field, Busch Stadium, Coors Field, O.co Coliseum, Chase Field, AT&T Park, Citi Field, Minute Maid Park, Miller Park, Comerica Park, Wrigley Field, Petco Park, Target Field, Sun Life Stadium, PNC Park, Tropicana Field, Rogers Centre or U.S. Cellular Field.
Antonio Cutolo-Ring
1 year, 5 months agoAh, it’s good to get my weekly Royals-Judge fix.
As for the new rule about no corporate logo tattoos (what, has someone been displaying the Target logo on their bicep at Walmart, er, Kauffman stadium?), I guess Major League baseball wants to make sure it gets its cut of any deals.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 5 months agoMajor league baseball is like the government. They don’t like competition.
Lee since you made this post I can no longer get the one from last Monday and see the comments. Any way your IT people can change that.
I think you and Frenchie should be promoted to Assistant GM.
Chuck Smith
1 year, 5 months agoDoing it accurately is the hard part
I think that covers almost everything i’ve ever tried to do.
Jon Worley
1 year, 5 months agoI guess an NFL tattoo is right out.
Do you have any tidbits about any of the special routines or programs that players are working on in the offseason?
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoAntonio: MLB said the tattoo rule was to ‘head off’ potential problems. But you may be onto something: maybe the players just need to cut them in on some of the money.
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoLarry: I noticed the same thing about previous posts. I’ll ask for a fix, but I think we’re last in line. We’ve been struggling with email and server problems so I think those guys are dealing with the Chicago Fire and I’m reporting a cat up a tree.
And Frenchy and I would have a lot of fun as assistant GMs, but I doubt it would improve the team.
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoChuck: I’m right there with you: being accurate is the hard part. That was the point of the GM piece. Then I saw those projections by Bill James and decided to use those to further the point.
Kind of like the Packers-Chiefs game: clearly the odds favored the Packers, but the wonderful thing about sports is nobody really knows.
Watch ‘Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid’ (and you should) and they die at the end every time. Go to a sporting event and nobody knows what the hell will happen.
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoJon: No, I don’t know what the players are working on this winter. The only guy I’ve talked to since the season’s end is Chris Getz.
He told me he was going to work on driving the ball a bit more. Last season he wanted to crouch a bit deeper and get more out of his legs. Chris felt like he would sometimes get almost ‘too’ relaxed at the plate.
It’s a fine line: too much effort and you ‘muscle up’ your neck gets tight and your head pulls off the ball. Too little effort and you’re hitting lazy fly balls and routine grounders.
One of the questions I intend to ask everybody during spring training is what they’re working on and what fans can watch for in 2012.
I’ll have daily reports once spring training starts.
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoBy the way: Obviously I used a very small sample of Bill James’ work, which might be unfair.
As I recall, he also said that once Wade Boggs left Fenway and the Green Monster, he’d never be the same. A lot of those balls that were going off the Monster for doubles would be fly ball outs in Yankee Stadium. There’s an example of a Bill James projection that turned out to be fairly accurate.
But it is worth remembering when you’re listening to ‘experts’ that there’s a whole lot of guesswork involved and you shouldn’t accept these predictions as though they were written in stone.
Not unless the predictions were made by a burning bush.
Gary Chesney
1 year, 5 months agoHave you heard any rumors regarding Brandon Phillips being on the royals radar?
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoGary: No, I haven’t heard anything about Brandon Phillips, but I’m one of the worst people to ask.
You might email Bob Dutton at bdutton@kcstar.com. He’s the Star’s beat writer for the Royals and much more tied into those issues than I am.
Chris Hawkins
1 year, 5 months ago“I also didn’t know that Melky Cabrera was going to hit .305 and play some of the best baseball of his career. I didn’t know that Jeff Francoeur was going to lose weight and have a terrific comeback season.”
Correction: Melky played the best baseball of his career by far. No question. Also, I’m not sure it’s a comeback season if you haven’t ever had a full season of legitimately good baseball.
Chris Hawkins
1 year, 5 months agoProjections do not ignore the fact that players change. Take Gordon for example, most projection systems will regress him fairly significantly because his performance prior to 2011. But 2011 will be weighted more heavily because it’s more recent. On the other hand, no, projections do not consider someone working with the hitting coach because presumably almost every player does that and the vast majority of the time, there’s not a significant difference.
Clint Scoles
1 year, 5 months agoLee, How many of those 6 would’ve been blocked by the majority of catchers in the league? That’s what stats and projections are about. Basically your article reads like Kendall is a dynamo cause he blocked 6 pitches that day which is unseen in the boxscore. The problem with that assertion is that Kendall isn’t some kind of catching genius among his peers in fact he’s average to below with his ability behind the dish, his arm is less than stellar and his average is as empty as the last South Carolina beauty queen so to decide he did something extraordinary because he did something that most players that play his position can do is false in its judgement.
That false judgement lies amongst the rest of your analysis also. We bloggers judge GMDM, etc. among what their peers past and present have done and that is how we come to our conclusions. The same way you might judge anything in your life like say whether you change lanes in your car without looking or not. While Melky had a fantastic season which we loved it doesn’t mean you should plan on it again just like if your driving your car and you changed lanes without looking with luck a couple times you probably shouldn’t try it too often because eventually its gonna lead you into some damage. Just like judging Franceours previous seasons should be taken into consideration.
The predictors are just trying to come up with possibilities and likely outcomes the same way Vegas does. Sorry if some of us like reading it and take it into consideration and know that they aren’t entirely accurate but if you would like to bet against the house go for it. I think you know how that usually comes out.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 5 months ago“The problem with that assertion is that Kendall isn’t some kind of catching genius”
All due respect, Clint, but many of us remember Buck and Olivo and the frequent wind sprints to the backstop. Jason Kendall and Matt Treanor were both significant upgrades over the previous two we had at blocking pitches and being willing to crush a runner at the plate. Treanor contributed greatly to the OF assists numbers this past season.
“Just like judging Franceours previous seasons should be taken into consideration.”
Previous seasons have weight, as do changes in approach and training or even position in the batting order that may not be predictable based on career aggregates and averages. When Frenchy moved to fifth ahead of a slumping Moose, he produced OBP, just as Billy had in the same slot. When Billy moved to third ahead of the awesome Hosmer and changed his swing and approach, his OBP tanked and he became a productive force. Not sure there was anything in their careers to predict the two halves of last season for either Billy or Frenchy as too many variables were introduced.
“We bloggers judge GMDM, etc. among what their peers past and present have done and that is how we come to our conclusions.”
Most conclusions seem based on stats outside of context and a reflexive assumption that everything GMDM does is wrong until proven otherwise, then it is dismissed as luck with the expectation of regression to an out of context mean, Master Chen being exhibit “A”. I read a few bloggers myself, as you’re probably aware.
Clint Scoles
1 year, 5 months agoJim,
“but many of us remember Buck and Olivo and the frequent wind sprints to the backstop.” You act as if Buck and Olivo are the only catchers in the league. Just because KC had one extremely poor catcher doesn’t make Kendall a appropriate substitute or does it say he did something spectacular. That’s like saying well hey he isn’t the worst student in the class so he must be good. We know better.
“Not sure there was anything in their careers to predict the two halves of last season for either Billy or Frenchy as too many variables were introduced.” Billy had a similar offensive explosion in the second half of 2009 so there is that. And if one understands that he is a .847 OPS hitter in the 2nd half as opposed to a .787 in the 1st half they can understand what could happen and come close to predicting it. There are many factors to decide things I don’t believe anyone here says there isn’t. Lee seems to want to point out that all of these things are meaningless because they can be wrong some of the time. When a team like the Oakland A’s used many of these same tools to put together division winners on the field as have the Rays, Red Sox, etc. The Royals use some of this data are using projection systems that are likely even better otherwise Kansas City we have a problem but we all know they are.
And finally Jim cause some bloggers are negative doesn’t make them wrong nor does it make them right. I can’t speak for others only myself and I try to examine what he’s done right and wrong and how I view his decisions as a whole to compare them. I personally didn’t mind the Chen signing but I can understand why bloggers had their opinions. You are looking at a 34 year old soft tossing lefty who hasn’t been able to get thru the last two seasons unscathed from injury while the team has available funds to go elsewhere where perhaps think they can get more value. It’s no different than picking investments. Some bloggers can take it too far I, Lee, you and even they can understand that and I get how it can be a negative at times to read but at the same time this Royal blue rosy pitch of Kendall blocked 6 pitches and Getz moved a runner ahead when many of their peers can perform the same such task grows old as well.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 5 months agoLee, I get where you are coming from on breaking down one small aspect of Jason Kendall’s ability as a catcher. I don’t think any Royals fan viewed the signing of Kendall as a lock to complete a playoff ready battery. The Royals are not a major free agent player. I would imagine their view on the catcher position is more focused on intangible aspects like leadership and mentoring. They probably want someone who will come cheap and provide great defense while calling a smart game by knowing all the tendencies and weaknesses of the opposing hitters. Based on everything I’ve read about Kendall he has proved his ability to demonstrate all of those intangibiles. No one is blind to the fact the man is one year away from retirement but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an asset. He walks the line of player and coach so for the money I’ll take his talents over another 35 or older catcher.
And one more thought … I don’t care what his splits were Jeff Franceur had TWO terrific SEASONS before 2011. I would be willing to wager if you polled the players in MLB 8 out of 10 would take the following stats: 162 games played (very underrated) .292 AVG / 188 hits 40 doubles / 19 HR 105 RBI’s / 84 runs scored
This was from Frenchy’s 2007 season.
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoChris: I said that in 2012 Melky Cabrera played some of the best baseball of his career, but I think what you said is more specific and more accurate: he had his best season. So I’d agree with you there.
I’d disagree with your statement that Jeff Francoeur has never had a full season of legitimately good baseball.
In 2006 he only hit .260, but drove in 103 runs and in 2007 he hit .293 and drove in 105.
Your point about hitting coaches and not knowing if they’ll make a difference is one I’d also agree with, but that’s my point also: we don’t know if someone is making a lasting change, gaining or losing weight or having a bad relationship.
All those things can affect performance and there’s no way of knowing what’s going to happen and we should all bear that in mind.
Saying we can’t predict the future and we should admit that, doesn’t seem like an earth-shattering statement.
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoClint: All the major leaguers I’ve talked to rate Kendall’s ability to block pitches well-above average. But I didn’t say anything about his ability in comparison to others. What I said was he made Brian Bannister’s performance possible.
Bannister was getting a lot of attention for outdueling Strasburg that day. I thought it worth pointing out that Brian could spike curves in the dirt for strikeouts with a runner on third because he believed Kendall would block the ball.
I couldn’t accurately say whether most catchers could’ve blocked those types of pitches, but as Jim pointed out, we’ve had a few here who didn’t.
And finally, I’m not saying previous performance doesn’t count. Obviously, the past is what you have to go on when deciding what you’ll do in the future.
What I am saying is that we don’t know for sure. If no one knew Melky was going to have an improved performance in 2011, how do we now know he’s going to regress?
We might suspect, but we don’t know.
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoBrian: You’re right about Kendall and leadership. Stats don’t show everything and Jason brought other assets to the game. He was a leader in the clubhouse and on the field.
Numbers tell you a lot, but they don’t tell you everything.
Clint Scoles
1 year, 5 months agoLee,
Why is it you think teams do projections? I believe you are overselling the crapshoot segment. Are they 100% accurate, no but they are far more accurate than pulling a number out of a hat. BTW I used to share a similar opinion a few years ago but I’ve seen the numbers accurately telling the same story over and over again.
I like you attend plenty of games, talk with scouts, coaches and even the occasional upper management personnel(I’m sure not as much as you) from time to time but to undersell the numbers and to believe that bloggers are missing the hidden things in the game is a misnomer. Bloggers for the most part aren’t just average fans, in fact there are many that probably wish they were but we have an addiction to this game and go further than most to learn every aspect of it. Its not just a bunch of nerds on calculators crunching numbers in moms basement.
I don’t mean to be overly critical but at times your writing is an almost tongue in cheek poke at that segment of the fans. Many of us understand their is a leadership quotient of the game that “certain” players can provide but at the same time we’ve heard it so much to then watch a player pick up a hooker on Superbowl night or ask to be traded or else that after a while it appears to be vastly oversold. It’s much easier for us to understand that Barry Bonds or Jeff Kent and their superhuman hitting ability far outweigh the cancer that they could be in the locker room.
Thanks for letting me put down my opinion in your article hope to see you around one of the Royals minor league parks sometime.
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoClint: I’m not opposed to teams or anyone else doing projections, I just think it’s good to remember that’s all they are.
If no one was able to accurately predict Melky Cabrera’s 2011 performance, why do we think we can accurately predict his 2012 performance?
Certainly a player’s past is a guideline to his future performance and ought to be looked at, but, as I’ve already pointed out, if a player does something extreme, good or bad, the projections are likely to be off.
Sports predictions are common, going back to see how accurate they were isn’t. Last Sunday the Star predicted the Packers would beat the Chiefs 34-17. We also said that a change at coach and QB wouldn’t be enough. Monday we talked about the great improvement at QB and head coach and next Sunday we’ll confidently make another prediction.
It’s good to remember that if something out of the ordinary happens, the ‘experts’ are likely to miss it.
As for my attitude towards bloggers (apparently I’m one of them) and fans into metrics: yeah, I’ve poked fun at that community and probably caused some unnecessary conflict.
But I’ve also poked fun at Jason Kendall (said he looked like the head of security at a meth lab), Chris Getz (said he’d be a better player when he reached puberty) and myself (said a lot of unflattering and unfortunately accurate things about my abilities on the ballfield).
I’ve decided there’s not much point in picking an unnecessary fight with a community that doesn’t find that kind of joking funny. There’s going to be enough conflict in our points of view without that.
And I do see a pattern of discounting anything that doesn’t have a number attached to it (maybe not all metrics-minded people feel this way, but the number that do feel this way, or at least talk this way, is substantial).
One of the reasons many players and coaches have been supportive of the web site is their feeling that I recognize the worth of players like Kendall and Getz.
And those are just the kind of players that cause a rift between me and the metrics community. Players have strengths and weaknesses that just don’t show in the numbers and we’re probably going to continue to disagree about their value.
In conclusion (to this long-winded response) thanks for caring enough to get on the site and give the other side of the argument.
I don’t do this just so everyone can tell me how wonderful I am (although it would be nice). I’m trying to bring the players’ and coaches’ point of view to the public. Fans don’t have to accept it as gospel, but it’s a chance to see the game the way the players see it and that might make the game more enjoyable.
And, yeah, if you see me around the park, stop me and say hi. We can continue to argue over a cold one.
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoYuni? A utility infielder? Really? Right now my plan is to write something about this for next Monday.
Bob Forer
1 year, 5 months agoLee, great to see you back in the saddle this early. If I were to vote in the mythical Sports Columnist Rookie of the Year contest, you’d be at the top of my ballot. Evidently, your editors were pleased with your first year’s efforts. Congratulations.
Appreciated your insight on Jason Kendall. Dayton Moore signed him for a reason, and i think you hit the nail on the head. Although I will never underestimate Jason’s grit and determination, it does look like his playing days are over. I think he’d make a great coach. Any room on the staff for him. Maybe as the bullpen coach? Sal Perez has a chance to be a great catcher. Who better to mentor him than Jason Kendall?
I am sure you are already planning to cover this in your next column: With Yuni now on the roster, is there room for Getz, or is he history?
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoBob: Thank you, it’s good to be back. We actually started “Judging the Royals” in 2010 (still trying to get it set up so people can see that year’s content), so 2011 was the second year. We saw tremendous growth in the audience in one year, so, yeah, the editors are pretty happy.
As for Kendall: At this point I think the coaches are all set. When Ned announced his new bench coach, Chino Cadahia, he said he had been looking for someone who spoke Spanish to work with the catchers: Salvador Perez, Brayan Pena and Manny Pina.
I don’t know if the Royals will find a role for Jason, but the guy knows baseball and sets a good example for young players. Doug Sisson called him the “ultimate professional.” I know Jason would like to come back as a player and the last time we talked about it, he intended to try. In the meantime, it would be nice to see his knowledge put to use.
With the addition of Yuni, Getz needs to win the starting job or he’s probably headed for Omaha. Same with Giavotella. (Those are guesses, but it seems logical.)
I’ll write more about the Betancourt situation on Monday.
Curtis Ruder
1 year, 5 months agoI find the sentiment expressed by the front office guy to be tiresome. Owners, players, coaches, staff make their living off of the fact that we all care way more about men playing a kid’s game than we should. I am right at the top of the list; I’ve had a baseball subscription to cable for ten years to continue to watch the Royals. Baseball cycles through billions of dollar each year because we care.
But if we care so much that we start to criticize their jobs, then that is over the line.
They want all the passion that has us tuning into games, filling the stadium, buying jerseys, playing fantasy baseball, but none of the passion that says signing Jose Guillen for the richest contract in franchise history per season was idiotic on its face.
I’ll just speak for me: my passion isn’t so finely tuned. I can turn it off; it has been amazing to me how little I have missed the NBA despite it being the only professional sport in my city. So it seems the last thing baseball executives would want to tell their fan bases is to calm down.
So I pledge to you all now: I am going to play GM and manager as much as I darn well please. Hopefully with enough self-awareness to admit repeatedly that what I do know is a very small fraction of what I don’t know. I think signing Yuni was a mistake when we could have just promoted that guy we got for Aviles, who I have already forgotten. But if that is the biggest mistake of the season, it will be a really great season.
Merry Christmas to all!
Lee Judge
1 year, 5 months agoCurtis: Good to hear from you. I’m glad to know you’re still around. Apparently, neither one of us has anything more important to do on Christmas Eve than talk baseball (I’d say we have our priorities in order), but right after I finish this post I still need to go wrap presents.
But as long as I’m here and not getting ready for tomorrow morning, let me clarify the baseball executive’s remarks, which I should’ve done originally: He wasn’t talking about fans. Arguing about your team’s latest trade is one of the joys of being a baseball fan. I don’t think anyone wants to put a damper on that.
He was talking about people in the media, and I should’ve made that clear. A guy standing around the water cooler expressing opinions (that may or may not be accurate) doesn’t do much harm. It’s interesting for him and might even be interesting for the people listening.
An uninformed sports-talk radio personality doing the same thing can sway public opinion. Listeners assume expertise from these guys and it irritated the exec that some of the people who rarely showed up at the park and had no inside information would pose as such experts on the team’s latest moves.
So play GM all you want. You have the good grace to admit you don’t know everything, something many members of the media never do.