Jason Kendall thinks we’re forgetting how to play baseball. I’ve told this story before, but it goes to the heart of his argument: In 2010, Kendall blew out his shoulder and had surgery. When he was ready to get back on the field, the Royals sent him to Arizona to begin his comeback. Kendall was there with a bunch of kids, just starting their professional baseball careers. One day they were working on a hit-and-run drill. Jason was told he could skip the drill, but he said no, he was part of the team and would work on it like everybody else. He stepped into the cage and hit groundball after groundball toward second base. Afterward, a kid wanted to know why Kendall was hitting grounders at the second baseman.
Kendall explained that on a hit and run, with a right-handed batter at the plate, it was likely that the second baseman would cover the bag, not the shortstop. Hit a 16-hopper through that hole and your team has runners at first and third and you have an easy hit. (Kendall definitely used more F-bombs than I did during the explanation.) So why didn’t a ballplayer who was good enough to sign a professional contract already know that?
Kendall blames tournament teams.
Amateur players want to get noticed. They want a scholarship offer or a professional contract, so they want to put up numbers that will get attention. Knowing how to hit the ball through the hole on the right side or produce a fly ball when necessary or lay down a bunt does not get a lot of attention these days. On-base and slugging percentage do.
That’s why what I’m doing here drives some people crazy.
When I finally got serious about baseball, I was 38 years old and being taught by professional players. Russ Morman, Jerry Dipoto, Dan Quisenberry, Clint Hurdle, Bob Apodaca, Danny Jackson and Tim Bogar, among others, taught me the game. Their views became my views. I learned to value what they valued… and it’s the same stuff Ron Polk values. His Most Valuable Player Chart, which our scoring system is based on, caught my eye because it recorded many of the same types of plays that I’d been taught to regard as worthwhile. I’m scoring games with a 35-year-old evaluation system that tells me a player who can get a bunt down is worth something. It’s old-school baseball.
(By the way, this isn’t the first time baseball has gone through this argument. Ty Cobb thought that Babe Ruth ruined baseball. Cobb thought that Ruth turned an exciting game of speed and strategy into a boring game of fat guys standing around and swinging from their heels.)
Kendall thinks that a system that recognizes blocked pitches, breaking up double plays and hitting the ball to the right side helps fans appreciate that kind of old-school baseball. It helps fans recognize the blue-collar player who demonstrates skills that are no longer universally valued. So we’re not all using the same measuring stick, and that leads us to different conclusions.
If you think the sacrifice bunt is a stupid move, the fact that Chris Getz is a good bunter is not a recommendation. If you believe that sooner or later a sacrifice bunt will be necessary and a smart move in the right situation, Getz looks better. If you’re looking at OPS and I’m looking at offensive versatility, we’re not going to hold the same opinion of Getz. If we have different definitions of what constitutes a good ballplayer, we’re going to have different conclusions about who is on that list.
Until Kendall brought it up, I had never really thought of myself or what I’m doing with Polk’s evaluation system as old-school, but it is. It’s certainly not the only way to look at baseball, but it is a legitimate way to view the game. Sabermetrics has something to add to the sport, but so do the players and coaches who have been playing their entire lives. Providing their point of view is the reason this site exists. If reminding fans about the value of old-school baseball is my role, I’m happy to play it.
And does anybody know where I can buy a fedora?
An example of an old-school player, small ball and winning
Kendall and Getz are mentioned quite often, and now you know why. In my view of the game, they’re valuable players. To some others, they aren’t. It’s easy to agree on what Alex Gordon brings to the team, but players such as Kendall and Getz are more controversial — so we argue about them.
Semi-quick story from awhile back: I was at a Royals game with a friend who wasn’t a huge baseball fan but wanted to learn. The game was tied in the bottom of the fifth, and Matt Stairs led off with a double. Angel Berroa walked to the plate, and I said, “Berroa needs to hit the ball to the right side to move Stairs to third. To prevent that, the pitcher will throw the ball down and in so Berroa will hit the ball to third or short.”
First pitch, down and in. Berroa grounded out to third and Stairs had to hold at second.
The next batter (whose name escapes me) lined a single into left center, but Stairs could only advance to third. The ball was hit too hard; the center fielder got to it right away, and Stairs ran like Stairs. First and third, one out and John Buck walked to the plate. I said, “Buck needs to get the ball in the air to the outfield so Stairs can score on a sacrifice fly. To prevent that, the pitcher will throw a sinker down in an attempt to get a double play.”
First pitch, sinker down. Buck grounded into an inning-ending double play.
The Royals missed a great opportunity to take the lead. When the starter had to leave the game in the next half inning, the ball was given to a so-so middle reliever. The Royals weren’t in the position to throw one of their better relievers unless they were out in front and those innings might translate into a win.
I turned to my friend and said, “This game is over — it’s about to get ugly,” and it did. The middle reliever blew up, and the Royals missed a chance for a win — all because Berroa did not hit the ball to the right side, something that went unrecognized by most of the crowd.
So what’s this have to do with Getz?
Last season, the Royals were in Detroit (don’t hold me to that — I’ve got to check every year to make sure of my wedding anniversary), and Getz came to the plate with less than two down and a runner on third. It was a pleasure to watch a professional hitter sort through the pitches he was offered until he found one he could drive to the outfield, which drove the run in. To prove it wasn’t a fluke, he did it again a few innings later. For Getz, those plate appearances were typical.
Hitting coach Kevin Seitzer calls Getz a smart ballplayer and says, “He always gives you an appropriate at-bat.” Which is probably why he led the 2011 Royals in “situational batting average,” which includes moving the runner over from second with nobody out, driving in the run from third with less than two outs, getting sacrifice bunts down and conducting the hitting part of a hit and run. Getz succeeded in those situations over 76 percent of the time. It’s not a stat that gets fans excited, but it’s a stat that wins ballgames.
Many fans either ignore this kind of thing altogether or dismiss the execution of these plays as routine. Even the name for playing this way, “small ball,” might lead the casual fan to dismiss this type of play as unimportant.
In my opinion, there’s nothing routine about these plays. All too often in the Royals’ recent past, pitches were not getting blocked, bunts were not laid down and hitters were not having good situational at-bats. Like a lot of fans, I like the Royals’ young talent, but the main reason I’m upbeat about the future is that I see them playing better fundamental baseball. They haven’t hit an inattentive cutoff man in the back for quite a while.
Give Ned Yost some credit for this. Trey Hillman talked a good game when it came to fundamentals — most managers do. I’ve yet to hear any manager say he doesn’t care about fundamentals, but I’ve seen plenty of managers skip the work required to make the theory of good fundamentals a reality. The Royals’ outfielders now practice throwing to the bases before the first game of each series. The team regularly runs the bases as a group, practicing their turns. The base stealers regularly do early work on leads, visual keys and breaking for the next base.
I don’t believe these things are small. Ask Red Sox fans if Dave Roberts stealing a base in the ninth inning of game four of the 2004 ALCS was “small.” Those small things that a player like Getz can do — moving runners, hitting the ball to the right side or stealing a base at the right moment — add up to the biggest thing of all.
Winning.
Dan Merker
1 year, 4 months agoGood points, and why we read. Just another piece of data to go along with traditional and sabermetrics.
If you do get the fedora, please put a card in the band that reads, “PRESS”.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoDan: Hey, I’ve got the baseball hat with the word “Press” on it. Chris Getz saw that hat and said he needed one for a “variety of reasons.” I got him one, but told him he couldn’t wear it around the stadium: that was my turf.
And thanks.
I really don’t think I’m providing “the” way to look at the game, merely “one” way. But I do think players like Kendall and Getz and coaches like Ron Polk have something to teach the rest of us.
Steven A Hurst
1 year, 4 months agoAnd both Getz & Kendall should make very good coaches.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoSteven: You’re right, I won’t be surprised if both Jason and Chris continue to have baseball careers once their playing days are over.
Players who have to scramble to compete, who have to pay attention to the details of the game in order to stay on the field, tend to make very good coaches.
They’ve had to master the “blue-collar” skills Jason was talking about: getting bunts down, hitting the ball to the right side and blocking pitches in the dirt. They understand the game in a way that others may not.
Curtis Ruder
1 year, 4 months agoA tie game in the middle to late innings is exactly the time to go with our best relievers. It drives me nuts when we roll out the worst pitchers on the team in a tie game. Keeping the game tied is the highest leverage position for a pitcher, and treating it as if we were behind is a fairly sure way of getting behind.
Of course, the best solution is to have a pen full of good pitchers, so that all of the alternatives are reasonable. Happily, we have moved in that direction recently.
John Wilson
1 year, 4 months agoWhen I did my morning check of the internet and saw your column, I said to myself, it’s good to have an old friend back. I’m ready for spring training and excited about the upcoming season. Welcome back!
Any fan that thinks small ball doesn’t count should play church league softball. As a 50-something, I can’t swing for the fences (successfully) or run like a college kid - I have to play small ball to contribute. Your insights not only had me enjoying Royals games more last year but playing softball in a smarter way and hopefully better LOL
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoCurtis: I can’t remember every detail of that game all those years ago (who was available in the pen, who wasn’t), but it’s good for fans to remember managers also have to think about tomorrow’s game.
A fan puts down his money, buys a ticket and wants to see his team give the best possible effort in THAT game. But a manager has to remember his team is playing 162 times a summer. Managers will never come out and say, “I had to give up on that game in the sixth”, but sometimes, that’s just what happens.
If it’s a must-win, managers will go all out and use whoever they have to, but in the middle of the summer, and especially if the pen has been overused, they may not waste quality relief innings unless they can see it translating into a win.
On the other hand, there are some situations in which Ned Yost thinks like you do. At home, Ned will use Joakim Soria in the 9th inning in a tie game. Ned’s reasoning goes like this: Jack keeps the score tied and we have two shots at winning…the bottom of the 9th and if we don’t win it then, no matter what the other team does in the top of the 10th, we still get a shot at winning in the bottom of that inning also.
That’s also why Ned doesn’t use Soria in a tie game on the road: even if Jack keeps the score tied going into the bottom of the 9th, the home team still gets two whacks at winning.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months ago(OK, my computer had a hiccup and interrupted my comment before I was through…it’s like being married.)
The other situation where Ned might play for a tie where some wouldn’t, is on the road IF he believes his bullpen is better rested than the opposition’s. He told me he did that in one road game thinking if he could push it to extra innings the Royals would have the advantage…and it worked.
Instances like that are a good reminder that there’s no ONE way to do things: it all depends on the situation and the people involved.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJohn: Thank you, it’s good to be back. I don’t think this column will end the small ball vs. big inning debate, but it’s worth hearing from the professionals who are actually out there playing the game.
Here’s one of the reasons this debate continues: what’s true in general isn’t always true in specific circumstances.
If my team’s offensive philosophy is centered around walks and home runs, that might work in 95 games and get us to the playoffs. So that’s a good philosophy MOST of the time.
But once we get to the playoffs, sooner or later we’ll probably find ourselves in a situation in which we need to win THIS game, right now. If Chris Carpenter is pitching against us and he’s not giving up walks and home runs, we better have another way to get on the scoreboard. Suddenly a Dave Roberts or Chris Getz seems like a valuable player to have on your roster.
Jason Kendall’s point is that this kind of baseball is getting lost. (I’ve got no clue, IS there a metric for situational hitting?) Anyway, Jason thinks that in the rush to put up impressive numbers in some categories, other under-appreciated fundamentals are dying off.
P.S. John, I’m glad I’m helping your church league softball career (although any helpful insight is probably coming from the players, not me). I believe anybody who actually steps on a field and plays (I don’t care if it’s softball or little league or men’s senior league) appreciates the game in a way that others can’t.
Until you’ve stood under a wind-blown pop fly coming straight out of the sun, you won’t appreciate the difficulty of this play. Or how easy major league baseball players make it look…most of the time.
Good luck out there.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 4 months agoLee, a of peoples thougths on this subject are dependant on how they were raise. I grew up in a time when doing the little things was appreciated. This is how I learned to play the game. I think a lot of the younger fans grew up rooting for the 3 run homer. Even defense is not stressed as much with kids today. Only the boppers get attention and big paychecks.
I have to admit a double, sacrifice bunt and a fly to the outfield for a run seldom gets me on my feet cheering. Whereas a 440 foot homer does it every time.
I can remember a few years ago when we had nobody that was a threat to get a bunt down successfully. The third and first basemen could lay back and relax. Having played third base at one time I know the stress that a good bunter puts on the defense. You have to play in closer which makes it easier for batter to drive one past you. If he bunts and you throw bad to first it’s as good as a double. Have a lot of fans go ballistic when a player fakes a bunt. This is a good play if player is actually a threat to bunt. Puts whole defense on edge. Very good play for a batter that has little power, make it easier to drive one through infield.
Basically, what you write about here is what my uncle and dad called the game within the game. Once you learn to watch for that you can enjoy just about any game.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoFrom stat-land, Chris Getz hits .286 when bunting, which is above his .255 BA. When he sac bunts he has a better chance of getting a hit on the play than when he swings. Alcides Escobar in 2011 got a hit 21.9% of the time when bunting, in 2010 30%. Not as impressive as the homer, but a guy who can successfully bunt, steal a base, and take the extra base can help manufacture runs. Put that guy on base ahead of the player who can hit the ball to the right side and advance the runner, then another player who can get the sac fly and you get the kind of runs that we had when Willie beat out a squibber, stole 2nd, went to third on UL’s grounder to 2nd, and scored on a George sac fly. Those guys weren’t big boppers, but managed to win a couple of games. Our current line-up has much more power than the classic Royals and disruptive base runners and runners in scoring position will only make them better by putting more pressure on pitchers and defenses. If Chris and Esky develop a little more pop, all the better, forcing the outfield to stay back and the infielders to play honest with them.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoLarry: The pendulum swings back and forth. Several professionals have told me now that steroids are out of the game, there will be a shift back to small ball. That doesn’t mean teams will play it all the time, they’ll just want to have that club in their bag.
Clint Hurdle once said the teams that win championships are the teams that can do both: pound the ball when necessary and manufacture a run when the oposition pitcher is dealing.
But just like any other offensive approach, you have to have the right guys available if you’re going to manufacture a run under pressure.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: Last season I gave Chris a hard time about how much better he was if he got jammed. The ball would slowly roll out on the grass and Getz would use his speed from the left side to turn it into a hit.
Both you and Larry touched on another important factor: how the mere threat of a bunt or stolen base pressures the defense.
If a hitter never bunts, defenders play where they like. They can back up and buy themselves more range. If you watch Getz closely when he comes to the plate you’ll see him do a last-second check on the defense: his eyes will shift to see if their positioning allows him to bunt for a hit. Probably why he bunted for a higher average than when he swung away: the defense was putting him in an advantageous position.
The other factor is what speed on the base paths does for the man at the plate. During one Alcides Escobar at-bat last season, Getz was on first and drew three throws. Doug Sisson told me to watch the quality of the pitch to the plate after a pitcher comes over to first three times: it’s usually not good. When the pitcher finally went to home plate he hung a curve to Esky which got smoked for a double.
Another time Getz was sent out to pinch run. That put the pitcher into a slide step and once he was in a slide step, he couldn’t throw strikes. The hitter walked.
Chris got no credit for the double or walk, but neither would’ve happened without him on base. This kind of effect on the play of others is important and part of what Jason Kendall is talking about.
If advanced metrics don’t reflect any of this, then some people won’t value situational hitting, the ability to bunt or the speed to steal a base.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoThe flaw, I think, in so-called advanced metrics is the need to isolate what is thought to be an independent, individual number taken out context, hence “fielding independent pitching” or the idea that “batting average, balls in play”, BABIP, is independent of the pitcher or that a batter’s walk rate is completely or even mostly independent of the situation. That may be useful for a fantasy league wherein players are picked from among actual teams and “independent”, broadly accepted numbers are needed to calculate game winners, but the need for independence from context forces ignoring much of what is and always will be a team game. The reason fantasy uses such numbers is in an effort to eliminate subjectivity.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 4 months agoAn example of what speed does happened last year in spring training. Royals were playing the Mariners. Dyson wound up with 3 infield hits. The second one was a routine grounder to the shortstop. He fielded it and looked to throw it to first base and just ate the ball. Dyson was already within a couple of steps of first. The look on his face was priceless. The third time Dyson came up the entire infield was almost on the grass. Still got his third infield hit. After the game they interviewed Felix Hernandez who said I don’t know who he is but he sure is fast. You talk about a defense that was off balance. That’s what speed do.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: You’re right, everything influences everything. There really are no ‘independent’ numbers. A player’s results will change if his situation changes: change the park, change the manager, change the teammates and the outcome will change.
Within any one situation there are many influencing factors. Arbitrarily counting some of them while ignoring others leaves you with a flawed statistic at best. The number tells you something, but not everything.
As Albert Einstein said, “Not everything that counts can be counted, not everything that can be counted counts.”
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoLarry: A guy like Jarrod Dyson just flat-out changes the game. Any ball hit on the ground to the left side gives Dice a chance. That means the defense has to play in and that means more balls are going to get through.
Understanding how speed affects average and further, how someone else’s speed affects someone else’s average, is necessary if you’re going to understand how the pieces of the game fit together.
The longer I do this the more complicated the picture becomes. You can’t just look at a number and think you understand. I had lunch the other day with Russ Morman (former Royal and current Triple A hitting coach for the San Francisco Giants) and before I finished my club sandwich Russ said four things I’d never heard before that will change the way I’ll look at a game.
Next week, barring something else coming up, I’m going to write about Russ. Tonight we’re going back and watching the last game of the Royals season and Russ is going to score it using Ron Polk’s system.
I want to see how many things he notices that I missed. Should be interesting and somewhat depressing…a typical Saturday night.
Curtis Ruder
1 year, 4 months agoI think the independent stats are tremendously important, but they are not so much to be used within a game or series or even a season. The place where they are critical is in evaluating personnel moves. Back when we traded Jermaine Dye for he who must not be named, his stats were very inflated by playing in the hitters paradise of Coor’s Field ere humidors. His home/road splits were atrocious. His numbers approached those of a reasonable major leaguer, but independent stats were pointing out this was a guy who would make us throw up in our mouths every time we saw his name.
That is an extreme example, of course. And we as fans don’t actually make personnel decisions. As Jim and Lee both say, each at bat takes place within a context which affects the outcome. Over a season, it is reasonable to assume that those contexts roughly balance out. But a simulation of a season is not actually a season.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoAgree, Curtis. I use what stats I can handle mainly to look at personnel moves and to get some idea of the future, as well as to key in on a player’s strengths and weaknesses, which helps me understand what the manager is doing in his moves.
Scott McKinney’s piece on Zips projections was very informative and useful for example, gave me a basis for my own more hot stove oriented predictions for the year, showing that I have learned a little over the last year. SABR-stuff has helped me quite a bit as a fan and as an occasional commentator on various blogs.
Good post, Curtis. Cute kid:)
Kurt Vancil
1 year, 4 months agoI think it is great that Getz can put down a bunt. In a situation with a runner on first, no outs and Getz at bat I have no problem with Getz bunting the runner over because he is not a great hitter and most likely will hit into an out and if he does get a hit it will almost always be a single that will not get the runner over to third.
But in the same situation with Butler, Hosmer, Moose, Frenchy, Gordo, and many others I think bunting is a terrible, terrible, terrible tactical decision. It takes the bat out of one of your best hitters hands and gives your opponent a free out when that hitter could have potentially moved the runner over without given up an out or better. I think knocking a hitter like Butler for not being able to bunt is just ridiculous.
And as for the threat of bunting forcing the defense to change their approach, doesn’t the threat of hitting the ball over the fence or off the wall do the same. Doesn’t an outfield adjust up when Getz hits because there is very little threat of him hitting it over their heads, which then limits his ability to get a hit?
As for speed I think it is a necessary tool to have and Dave Roberts showcases that. I believe Bill James actually said a player like that is very useful in the right situation, but that they should be used very seldom. That is why a player like Dyson has value, but not (in my opinion) as an everyday player. I think in order for the Royals to make a run at the playoffs a player like Dyson could win them 1 or 2 important games down the stretch.
Also (and I know this isn’t completely true for everybody on here), can we please get rid of the notion that “stat guys” don’t actually watch the game? I feel like I see this too often and it drives me bonkers.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoAlex Gordon is a career .429 BA on bunts, so probably doesn’t hurt the team too much. Mickey Mantle was also a great bunter.
As for the boppers bunting, it happens quite seldom, so isn’t much of an issue, but Melky, with his 18 homers and 48 doubles, also laid down 15 bunts and was successful 8 times. I see it as a matter of being a complete ballplayer. Depending on the situation, the ability to drop a bunt and beat it out can be useful, certainly more useful that a K or DP.
Frenchy didn’t bunt at all but grounded into 17 DPs and struck out 123 times, almost 19%. I imagine there were times facing a nasty rightie that the team might have been better served by Frenchy laying one down. All a matter of the situation. Getz and Esky bunt in certain situations, usually dependent on runners, outs, and where the infield is playing. It is part of their value that they are able to do so, often successfully.
Curtis Ruder
1 year, 4 months agoIt is probably not a good idea to look at batting average when bunting at least at face value. First of all, a bunt single is less valuable than any other base hit, in that it is a single and won’t advance a runner more than one base.
But even more importantly, lots of outs won’t be counted against the batting average. If a player advances on the bunt, it is always scored a sacrifice regardless of intent. I don’t remember the game, but I am pretty sure it was Podsednik who came up with one on, none out, two runs down in the ninth inning. He bunted for a hit, was thrown out, and was credited with a sacrifice because the runner advanced. I don’t fault the strategy; the team needed baserunners, and he was not likely to muscle one over the fence. But to credit him with a sacrifice is silly. But it didn’t count against his batting average.
When there are runners on, bunting distorts batting average because hits count as success but outs don’t count as failures.
Kurt and I are basically on the same page. I think one of the real unexplored areas in SABR is game theory applications to situations. If a player is versatile offensively, then he is more difficult to defend. A one-dimensional player, be it a big slow bopper or a slappy speedy guy, means that the defense doesn’t have to defend the entire field.
Obviously, comparing anyone to George Brett is going to make them pale, but George was the most complete offensive player I have ever seen. He could hit the ball to all fields, with power, control the bat, run, and was a demon on the basepaths. The more of those skills any player has, the more stress he puts on the other team.
I used to cover the Spurs in college, back when Popovich was an assistant to Larry Brown. And one thing I remember him saying back then is that every player needed to be a threat on offense. The offense would run through the superstars like David Robinson and Sean Elliott (and later Duncan, Manu, and Parker), but everybody on the court had to be able to do something to put pressure on the defense.
The same thing is true in baseball. Not every guy will be able to fly. Not every guy could hit 30+ homeruns in a season. But every guy needs to be a threat every time he steps in the box.
I was thinking about that when the Spurs just announced they were retiring Bowen’s #12. He defended anyone, anytime. And on offense, they never ran a play for him in eight years, but if you left him open in the corner, he would drain a three in your face.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months ago“A one-dimensional player, be it a big slow bopper or a slappy speedy guy, means that the defense doesn’t have to defend the entire field.”
Absolutely agree, Curtis, which is why I mentioned both Mickey Mantle, my all time favorite ballplayer, and Melky Cabrera, who had a very good offensive year last season ranging from his successful bunts to his homers and doubles, a complete offensive player.
In a perfect world the Royals would have Cal Ripkin at short and Dustin Pedroia at second and would be much more likely to hit rather than bunt, but I would note that Pedroia did bunt 3 times last year, all unsuccessfully. Ben Zobrist was successful 4 of 7 bunts last year, Ian Kinsler 3 of 9, Howie Kendrick 6 of 10 times, Brandon Phillips 0 for 6, Chris Getz 8 for 28. Even the top 2nd basemen bunted, often quite successfully, but Chris isn’t an offensive powerhouse, nor is Escobar, so have to bring something else to the plate to have value.
“But every guy needs to be a threat every time he steps in the box.
In a perfect world, yes, and I think all Royals fans hope that Johnny Gio can become what Omaha suggested. If that happens, the the Royals’ 2B may not have to bunt quite so often, but I would bet that Gio works on his bunting, knowing that the threat moves the 3rd baseman in a couple of steps, which makes it easier ti slip a hot grounder through the hole.
You make a good point on at-bats and sacs. Personally, I prefer using plate appearances rather than ABs and think that an adjusted slugging percentage that adds walks, hbp, and net steals to total bases, divided by PA, is the most useful single offensive stat.
Good post. See, we’re really not total barbarians here, at least Lee isn’t.
Jeff Frost
1 year, 4 months agoIn only the way Kendall could say it, Jason Kendall needs to be a coach on the F-bomb Royals staff, grooming him to be Ned’s replacement when Ned is F-bomb ready to retire! I love the grit and intensity, but more-importantly the attention to F-bomb detail that Jason expects on how to play the game! This is the guy that came back from one of the most gruesome ankle injuries ever- think Alou, Theismannish! Effing-A!
:)
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoEverybody: As I mentioned in a previous comment, last night I was at Russ Morman’s house. We watched the last game of the Royals 2011 season together. The goal was to find out what Russ would see that I had missed. The results were interesting and I plan on writing about them soon.
I came home and checked the site at 11PM to see if there was anything I needed to deal with and was struck by what a polite, civilized discussion you had in my absence.
It’s not that everyone agreed (If we all thought the same thing, why talk to anyone?). It was that you expressed yourselves intelligently and politely. I hope I can do half as well in the next comment.
Thank you,the readers are making this web site better.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoCurtis and Jim: (I’m breaking my responses into pieces because this web site for some reason limits the numbers of characters you can put in a response and so I can remember who I’m responding to.)
I think we’re all close to agreement here: I said earlier that there are no “independent” stats. There are always factors and influences that weren’t or can’t be measured (The Einstein “Not-Everything-That-Counts-Can-Be-Counted” theory), but I’d agree with Curtis that GMs can’t throw up their hands and say, “Well, it’s all too complicated, who knows how this guy will perform?”
Those stats are as close as we can currently come to measuring performance. It’s just good to remember they don’t measure everything.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoKurt: I’d agree with Jim’s response: nobody thinks it’s a good idea for Billy Butler to be laying down bunts and, as far as I know, nobody has criticized him for not doing so. I’d also agree that in general, you don’t want your RBI guys bunting the ball, but as Jim points out, there might be a very specific situation in which it makes sense.
As for defensive positioning: sure, the defense is always going to position themselves in whatever manner they think will be most effective. But if you always do the same thing, they can always defend you the same way. Positioning gets much easier. If you’re going to make several hundred outs in a season, making a few that get you more hits later seems like a good investment. Getz had some grounders go through because the infielders had to play closer to defend the bunt.
Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar told me that if a hitter will lay down even two bunts, he has to take that into account when positioning the Sox infield.
There’s no point in Billy bunting because they wouldn’t have to reposition: they’d play back and still be able to throw him out.
Now Jarrod Dyson is an interesting argument: I’ve heard several people around the Royals say they’d like to see his speed on the field every day. He’s got to keep the ball out of the air and use his speed if he’s going to play regularly. Ned liked having him on the bench at the end of games so he could choose exactly when he wants that speed on the field.
And, finally, if I’ve given the impression that I don’t think stat-guys watch the games then I apologize. I wouldn’t, or at least shouldn’t, make a blanket statement like that. But nobody should make a blanket statement that all stat-guys DO watch the games…at least not 162 of them.
As we’ve pointed out over and over again on this site, both numbers and eyeballs are necessary if you’re going to understand what’s happening.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoCurtis: Good point about bunting and averages, although some of what you’re talking about is just bad scorekeeping.
The same thing you described happening to Scott Podsednik happened to Chris Getz last season: with a runner on and one down, Chris laid down a bunt. It was clearly an attempt at a hit. As you well know, you generally don’t sacrifice with one down(except with a National League pitcher). The scorekeeper gave Chris a sac. Later, when I told Getz how the play had been scored he laughed and said, “I’ll take it.”
If the scorekeeper knows what he’s doing he wouldn’t be handing out sacrifices in those situations.
I agree with both you and Jim that in a perfect world every player represents some kind of offensive threat. If they represent multiple kinds of offensive threats, even better. They’re that much harder to defend.
But let’s not forget defense: there are guy who make a living in the big leagues because what they do on that side of the ball makes so much difference.
One day after Alcides Escobar had started two spectacular inning-ending double plays (which saved two if not four runs) and Ned Yost was asked about Esky’s offense, Ned said, “His RBIs are in his glove.”
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: Try to keep the fact that I’m not a total barbarian under your hat, I’d like people to think I’m a badass.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJeff: If Jason Kendall becomes a manager, I don’t think anyone will be surprised. He’s been around forever, knows the game inside out and has the authority that makes people listen.
Last season against the Twins, Eric Hosmer swung at the first pitch, down by three, late in the game. The pitch was up and away and Hosmer popped it up. When he came back to the dugout Kendall asked Eric if he could’ve tied the game up by hitting that pitch out of the park.
Hosmer said no, we’re down by three.
“Exactly.” Jason told Hos the team needed base runners at that point and it wasn’t even a good pitch to hit.
Hosmer said he’d screwed up and when Jason saw him do something like that he wanted Jason to get on him about it. That’s the kind of thing a player like Kendall brings to a team that isn’t readliy apparent in the scorebook.
And good for Hosmer: he wants to learn.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months ago“Now Jarrod Dyson is an interesting argument: I’ve heard several people around the Royals say they’d like to see his speed on the field every day.”
I saw something awhile back, can’t remember who wrote it, that suggested that Dyson’s other-worldly defense could be worth five wins over a full season, regardless of what he hit. Add to that his speed and ability to take a walk and he is a valuable player and I see him as the 4th OF this year and being of value.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months agoJust to expand a bit on my immediately above comment and try to visualize how a CF could be worth 50 defensive runs: If Escobar doesn’t make his highlight play on a grounder at short, the batter has a single because Alex is backing him up. If a ball gets past the center fielder, it’s at least a double and often a triple. Dyson has a good arm, that prevents a lot of advancement on the base paths, as our OF showed last year. Dyson’s speed in the outfield gets him in position to back up Frenchy or Alex more often than a replacement fielder would, which keeps a missed ball on a diving catch from rolling to the wall. Not sure all that adds up to 50 runs, about 5 wins above replacement, but not hard to visualize that he could save a run every three of four games beyond what the generic replacement-level player could. He wouldn’t be that great an improvement over what we hope for from Lorenzo Cain, but I imagine that both the Polk System and the new FieldFX data will show him as an impact defender.
Like Alcides, Dyson has runs in his glove and in his legs that don’t always show up in the box score. All due love to Mitch, but I expect Jarrod to be our 4th OF to begin the season and a more than adequate replacement for one of the starters in case of a day off or injury.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 4 months agoHope no one thought I was saying everyone should be bunting all the time. Just think it is a lost art that is a very important tool when used in the right place. Even boppers can use it from time to time. When I was a child (which was a long time ago) I saw Al Kaline come to bat in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game. Runner on third with less than 2 outs. He laid down the perfect suicide squeeze. Defense was so surprise he could have walked to first. Run scored and Tigers won.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: Everybody I’ve been around thinks Dyson’s speed is a game changer. I know they’d like to see him keep the ball out of the air and make better use of it on offense, but he covers a lot of territory on defense. A runs saved is worth every bit as much as a run driven in: it’s just harder to measure runs saved.
I think the argument for Mitch will be versatility: he can play all three outfield positions and is considered a catching option in an emergency. He’s also played some third. I don’t know that you’d want him doing either of the last two for an extended period of time, but he’d get you through a game.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoLarry: I think/hope everyone got what you were saying: bunting is a nice club to have in the bag and makes a player more complete.
As a manager I’ve asked my four-hole hitter to lay down a bunt only once in over 500 games. Deciding game for a championship, extra-innings, one down winning run on third, and my four hole hitter was a former minor league pitcher: he knew how to bunt.
Our suicide squeeze caught everyone by surprise including the runner on third who missed the sign. The runner who had been on second got the sign and I ended up with two runners on third. The runner who had been on second headed back there and the defense threw the ball away in a rundown. We won.
See?
Bunting works.
Bob Forer
1 year, 4 months agoSixth inning. Tied 1-1. Game has been a pitcher’s duel. Runner on third, one out. Batter is a good fly ball hitter. On deck batter’s fly ball ratio is lower than average.
Questions: In this situation, is the defensive manager aware of the hitting proclivities of the batter and on-deck batter, and if so, would the manager ever consider issuing an intentional walk to avoid the sac fly, and hope that the next hitter grounds into a double play?
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoBob: The short answer is: it depends. Teams do have a lot of information about the opposition. One of the bench coach’s jobs is to keep the manager aware of those numbers. When you see them holding those binders in the dugout, that’s what they’re looking up: matchup information.
So the manager should be very aware of what the hitter at the plate and the hitter on deck have done in the past.
Sometimes, in the situation you describe, you’ll see the “unintentional intentional walk”: the pitcher nibbles and gives the hitter a chance to get himself out. If the hitter declines to chase pitches off the plate, the pitcher doesn’t mind walking him and setting up the double play.
Setting up the double play and keeping the double play in order are almost always a priority for the defense. It means one pitch can get them out of the inning.
But nothing is ever as simple as it seems. Other factors would include the on-deck hitter’s speed: is he a likely double-play candidate? Your defense: are they capable of turning a double play if they get a groundball? Your pitcher: does he have a pitch with downward movement likely to generate a double-play grounder? (When he was here Kanekoa Texeira was the double-play guy. They’d bring him in when they needed to turn two. I don’t know who fills that role now, so that’s a good question to ask.)
And how about pinch-hitting or bringing in a reliever? You specified 6th inning, pitcher’s duel and low score. What’s the pitch count? If you’re starter’s almost done and you have a better matchup in the bullpen you might make the move early.
Ned Yost tends to make his offensive moves in the last two innings, but if the score is low enough, a manager may feel like this is one of the few opportunities he’s going to get and start making moves earlier. The situtation you described is also a good time for the suicide squeeze. Is this a team that likes that play and do they have the right guys in place to pull it off?
There are probably other factors that I haven’t included, like field conditions are whether the pitcher on the mound has strikeout capability. If I knew more baseball I could probably think of some other elements that could further complicate our thinking.
So, yes, the manager might issue that intentional walk to set up the DP, but all these decisions have multiple specifics that could change the situtation.
Gets complicated, don’t it?
Jim Rowland
1 year, 4 months agoThe villian isn’t tournament teams. I have coached such teams for years and there are a great deal of teams who are teaching young people to play the game correctly. I was told by a member of the K-State coaching staff that he loved watching my team play (we played old school fundamental baseball: hit and run, squeeze, etc.) yet how many did they recruit off my extremely successful TEAM, zero.
The reality is kids are not being recruited or scouted based on their ability to play baseball they are being scouted and recruited because they can throw a ball 200 MPH or hit the ball 1000 feet or run to first in the blink of an eye.
My Rieper
1 year, 4 months agoI don’t think bunting is a very productive strategy, but lets put that aside for a second.
How do we know Chris Getz is a good bunter? By the Ron Polk system, all we have is a raw total of points from sac bunts. But this is likely because he’s asked to bunt way more than other hitters in the lineup, because he’s such a weak hitter. It doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a good bunter. Do we know how many times he was asked to bunt and failed to get it down? I think that would be more illustrative of how good a bunter he was than simply a raw total of sacrifices. For all we know Eric Hosmer may be an amazing bunter, but we’ll never know because he’s such a good hitter, it would be insane to ask him to bunt.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoJim: I think you make a good point: there are tournament teams that ask kids to play the game the right way. Any blanket statement otherwise (and I made one, my mistake) is bound to be wrong.
But I don’t think you and Jason Kendall are that far apart after that. You both think that kind of unselfish team play does not get noticed as much as it should.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoMy: Yeah, the argument for and against bunts has been made here more than once, so let’s move on to whether Chris Getz is any good at it.
Like any other baseball web site this one has to make choices about what numbers it uses, there are just too many available to use them all. Ron Polk’s MVP chart (which our system is based on) attempts to measure contributions and merely counts the number of times certain things happen. It doesn’t record averages (widely available elsewhere) it merely records how many times a player did something and compares that contribution to the other players.
I looked at a couple of other metric web sites and none of the ones I saw recorded failed bunt attempts. So you’ve got a good question: how often does a bunter get his bunts down?
I don’t have the complete numbers here at work and will look them up later when I get home, but I do have some of Kevin Seitzer’s hitting stats available.
During the 2010 season (and Getz spent a fair amount of time injured that year) Chris was 4 for 4 on sacrifice bunt attempts, fouling back or complete missing two pitches while doing so.
Through June 15th of the 2011 season (and I’ll find the rest of the numbers this afternoon) he was 10 for 10 on sacrifice bunt attempts, fouling back or completely missing one pitch while doing so.
As for characterizing Chris as a “weak hitter” which accounts for all his bunt attempts: depends on the number you look at. Chris had the highest situational batting average on the team. That might mean he swung away when others might’ve bunted. If you think he’s got a good chance of moving the runner over without bunting, Getz might’ve been swinging and hitting the ball to the right side.
For most of the season Getz led the team in batting average with a runner in scoring position (once again, the final numbers are at home). He also had a higher batting average, better on-base percentage, better situational batting average and struck out less than his logical alternative, Johnny Giavotella.
Of course, Gio’s got more pop and nobody thinks the numbers Johnny put up last season are indicative of what he can do eventually.
Craig Scholes
1 year, 4 months agoOf course Jason Kendall likes a system that makes him look better than he really is.
Craig Scholes
1 year, 4 months agoAlso… Dave Roberts was a bench player, a situational base stealer. The Red Sox were a talented enough team to have a guy on the bench for one thing and one thing only… Steal a base. He wasn’t asked to play everyday to get outs to move a guy to second. Now if Chris Getz is asked to sit on the bench until we need to steal a base late in the game, to get a go-ahead run… Then Im all for it, instead I want a guy who can at least slug his OBP playing 2B. Unless that is he can field like Ozzie Smith, but even the Wizard of Oz can outhit Getzie.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoCraig: I’m pretty sure Jason is unaware that the Ron Polk MVP chart exists or that we’ve based a system on it. He does know I keep track of certain plays and that I ask questions about the details of the game.
That’s what he likes.
Kendall has some strong beliefs about how the game should be played and he thinks what I’m doing promotes that kind of play.
I’d say he’s totally unconcerned with how my (or any other) web site values him. He’s got the respect of his peers and the baseball establishment. There’s a reason he’s caught for 16 years, has over 2,000 hits and will probably get coaching and/or managing offers when he’s through.
And it’s got nothing to do with my web site or our system.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoCraig: Actually, I agree with the concept that some guys are more valuable coming off the bench. An offensively versatile utility player that can be plugged into a variety of situations is worth a lot.
Obviously, I like Chris Getz as a player more than you do. But we’re not choosing between Chris Getz and an imaginary alternative: at least right now it’s Chris Getz versus Johnny Giavotella. And right now Getz is a more complete player (look a couple of comments above) than Gio, but Johnny hits for more power and has potential. That’s the real world choice the Royals will have to make in spring training.
Craig Scholes
1 year, 4 months agoTo some degree I don’t think thats fair to Jason Kendall… He was one of the best players in the league from 1997-2000. And then had 2 more great seasons in 2003 and 2004. But unfortunately Kendall became a much less productive player, and more than likely he kept playing because of his reputation, and not because he was as good as he used to be, and in reality 2000 hits in 15 seasons (not 16) isn’t as impressive when you consider the majority came in his first 9 seasons. I actually think one of the biggest problems with Kendall is his desire to play as much as he did. If he took a couple off days every now and again its very possible that he would have played at a higher level for longer.
I think the Royals are a year away from serious contention, thats not to say they won’t be fun to watch this year, so Im more concerned with seeing if Giavotella can become the guy he has potential to be, rather than seeing the guy we know Getz is. Getz does not have near the upside that Giavotella has, its very likely Giavotella doesn’t become the next Pedroia, but he has to be given every shot to prove one way or the other.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoCraig: You may be right about Jason and how much he wanted to play. No way of knowing for sure if some days off would’ve extended his career, but it probably couldn’t have hurt. I think, and most of the time the manager obviously agreed, that Jason thought his team had a better chance to win if he gutted it out.
Either way, I don’t think he likes what I’m doing because it makes him look good, I think he likes what I’m doing because it reflects the way he thinks the game should be played.
As for Getz vs. Gio: that will be interesting. In my opinion, which doesn’t matter at all, if you want to win right now you go with Getz. You know what you’re getting and, as I said, he’s a more complete major league player at this point than Gio.
If you’re still playing for the future and you think Johnny needs to be here to develop, you go with Giavotella…but nobody’s asking me. They may have other ways of looking at it that make more sense.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoOK, I’ve had a chance to look up the final numbers and it appears Chris Getz got all his sacrifice bunts down (14) without fail in 2011.
The last numbers I have concerning batting average with runners in scoring position (handed out on 9/21/11) showed Chris (.321) behind only Billy Butler (.322) and Salvador Perez (.417).
William Carl Grandi
1 year, 4 months agoWait, so a player that lost his job to a rookie last year is a more complete player? So you are saying that the Royals were/are purposely losing games,and if Giavotella is the starting second basemen 2012 is more about development than competing?
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoWilliam: Chris Getz had a higher batting average, a higher on-base percentage, is a better bunter, struck out at a lower rate, had a higher batting average with runners in scoring position, had a higher quality-plate-appearance average and had a higher situational-batting average than Johnny Giavotella. Getz was also being used as a late-inning defensive replacement for Johnny, so yes, I’ll go out on a limb and say at this point, Chris Getz is a more complete player than Johnny Giavotella.
Johnny Giavotella has more power than Chris. Johnny also has great potential, Chris is probably already the player he’s going to be.
And, no, I wouldn’t say the Royals are purposely losing games, but they do have to make choices between winning right now and developing players. Last season Ned Yost let a struggling Alcides Escobar hit in late-inning situations when he had a .300 hitter sitting on the bench, Wilson Betemit. Would you describe that as purposely losing games?
I’m sure Ned wanted to win those games, but he was developing Alcides Escobar in hopes that Esky would win the Royals more games down the road. They might make the same kind of choice with Giavotella.
We don’t know what improvements Giavotella or Getz have made over the winter and we won’t know until spring training. But if Getz is still a more complete player than Giavotella on Opening Day, I think the best chance of winning right now is to play Getz.
The Royals, and they’re the only ones that matter, might think that Giavotella needs to be here to develop and that he gives them the best chance of winning more games down the road.
Brian Barnett
1 year, 4 months ago“If we have different definitions of what constitutes a good ballplayer, we’re going to have different conclusions about who is on that list.”
Well said. No argument here as to whether or not small ball is valuable…just how valuable is where we seem to be at odds.
BTW - http://www.thefedorastore.com/
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoBrian: Some of it probably depends on how you like to play the game. I wasn’t a fan of sitting on my hands, hoping for the best (although sometimes that’s the right managerial move).
I liked having options and a variety of way to attack the defense. That’s part of why I value players like Getz and Kendall. If you’d rather go for the big inning, not risk outs and base your offense on walks and extra-base hits, those players become less valuable, at least offensively.
I think that’s why praising them drives some people batty: for the way I like to play the game, they’re valuable. For the way others like to play the game, not so much.
Phil King
1 year, 4 months agoOh my God, I hate BA w/RISP with a passion because it widely varies from year to year. .321, .283, .268 those are are Getz’s BA w/RISP from the last three seasons. You did bring up Giavotella’s hitting woes with runners on, which I found interesting. His slash with no runners on was .278/.314/.454 which is pretty good for a rookie second baseman, while is slash with runners on was .210/.224/.284 which is good…for a pitcher. It makes me wonder if Gia was pressing when runners are on base, and that the numbers he posted with no runners on is his true self.
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoPhil: You bring up several good points: batting average with runners in scoring position probably bounces all over the place because the sample size is smaller. And there are so many other factors: Chris Getz might get better pitches to hit than Billy Butler in RBI situtations because Butler’s more of a threat…and Butler might be encouraged to expand his zone for the same reason. That would drive Billy’s BA w/RISP down as well.
You might also be on to something about Giavotella pressing with runners in scoring position. It takes a while to calm down and approach the at-bat in a rational way. I don’t think we’ve seen Johnny’s “true self” yet either. That’s one of the arguments for going with him over Getz at second. It probably partially depends on whether the Royals think Giavotella will develop better here or in Omaha.
Bill Tucker
1 year, 4 months agoLee: You do a GREAT job explaining/exploring my favorite sport. Thanks for the work you do.
Glad to see we have something in common, since your “cartoons” are repulsive both in art and substance. (only half joking)
Lee Judge
1 year, 4 months agoGee, Bill…thanks?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 4 months ago“But if Getz is still a more complete player than Giavotella on Opening Day, I think the best chance of winning right now is to play Getz.”
It probably won’t surprise you, but I’ve given this some thought and am 100% certain that both Chris Getz and Johnny Giavotella and working hard this winter, probably already at Surpise, Chris working with Kevin Seitzer on driving the ball and getting some more pop, plus spending time at SS and 3rd, Gio is working on his footwork and limberness, trying to get things working better after his operation and trying to get his defense a little smoother, working on his jumps and scoops. I doubt both make the 25 man roster and I would guess that Gio starts the season at 2nd with Getz in Omaha if both have similar camps. Both young men know what they need to do and both are motivated, so may the better man win. A year at Omaha may be what Getz needs for his career.