How important are spring training stats? Well … remember three things: Small sample size, uneven competition and dry air. That doesn’t mean the stats can be ignored entirely, but Lorenzo Cain is probably not going to hit .486 in 2012, and Bruce Chen is probably not going to wind up with a 15.00 ERA.
If a player’s spot on the team isn’t assured, spring training stats can certainly make a difference when the team makes a decision. But long-time veterans who have established track records are less susceptible to that kind of judgment.
The Star’s Royals beat writer, Bob Dutton, Fox Sports KC’s Joel Goldberg and I were talking about this Friday morning. Joel pointed out that April is the worst time of year for this kind of rush to judgment: There are no other stats to ponder, and people start forming opinions on one month’s worth of information. He also pointed out that people usually don’t do the same with the stats from July or any other month.
Bob remarked that Lorenzo Cain might hit .486 — for a month. But that will get lost among all the other stats generated during 162 games.
So keep in mind that: 1.) Players are generating less than a month’s worth of stats here in spring training 2.) They’re sometimes generating those stats against minor-leaguers and 3.) Atmospheric conditions are flattening out curves and making batted balls soar. Spring training stats matter, but not as much as you might think.
Coaching tips: I know some people who read this web site coach youth teams, and there’s a lot that can be learned from professional workouts. Today, the baserunning drill was “dirtballs.” If there’s no play on, the runner’s sole responsibility is to watch for balls in the dirt. The Royals track the ball’s trajectory and want to break before the ball hits the ground.
Chino Cadahia was just in front of the mound, throwing to home plate. He’d either bounce the ball or throw it all the way to the catcher. The baserunners had to read the throws and break for the next base on the bounced pitches or take a crossover step to get back to the base on pitches that didn’t hit the ground.
Here’s the interesting part: The Royals had two runners at first (one lined up in the normal position, another about 10 feet behind him) and two more runners at second (same alignment). So with every throw, four runners got work and so did a catcher (blocking pitches). The Royals use this alignment on all the baserunning drills that involve jumps and get twice as much work done in the same amount of time.
Baserunning is always done at the beginning of practice. It’s a good way to get loose, and it sends the message that this stuff is important. Put it at the end of practice, and players are tired and may interpret the running as punishment.
Taking no for an answer: Interested fans can watch the work being done by the major-leaguers on the two fields closest to the clubhouse, but they can only go as far as the dugouts. That means the major-leaguers are free to move back and forth between fields without interruption. The four minor-league fields allow fans much more access. That access means number-one pick Bubba Starling has to walk through the crowds to go to lunch. Starling doesn’t want to say no to anyone, and that can be a problem; he’s being stopped so much that he’s often having a 10-minute lunch break. Most players really do want to accommodate fan requests, but if a player says no, remember, there may be a very good reason.
The new catcher: Cadahia talked about the steep learning curve new catcher Humberto Quintero is on right now. Quintero’s got to learn a new staff and a new league as fast as he can. After Friday’s game against the Dodgers, I asked former Royals catcher Matt Treanor what Quintero had to do to make that happen.
Treanor faced the same situation last season when he got picked up right before opening day. Matt said Humberto needed to catch as many pitchers in as many games as possible. Video helps and so do side sessions, but you really don’t know what a pitcher has or likes to do until you catch him in a game.
Treanor said Quintero looked comfortable during Friday’s game and could only remember one mound visit. That means he was on the same page with the pitcher. Visits to the mound and shakeoffs from pitchers mean the two are having a hard time getting on the same page.
Afterward, Luke Hochevar said he felt very comfortable throwing to Quintero and pointed out that they were facing a National League team that Quintero had faced before.
Hoch: I’ve learned that if you ask three guys the same question, you might get three slightly different answers. So I asked Hochevar about slide steps and holding runners. He said he now has three moves out of the set: Lift the knee all the way (1.7 seconds to home plate), a quick step (1.3 seconds) and a slide step (1.1 seconds).
It’s not called from the side, and he says he does it by feel (much like Bruce Chen and his arm angles). It feels like this guy wants to run = slide step (1.1 seconds). This guy isn’t going anywhere = lift the knee all the way (1.7 seconds).
Me: “If Billy’s on first?”
Hoch: “He gets a 1.7 every time.”
Luke said the key is repetition so you can do it without thinking. And once you’re delivering the ball, 100 percent of your focus needs to be on the pitch. Don’t try to throw it through the backstop, don’t try to snap off a really nasty slider — do what you do. The same thing Jeff Francoeur said in yesterday’s post.
Luke must be doing something right; the home plate umpire walked over and told Ned Yost Hochevar looked ready for opening day.
Today’s team fundamental: First and third defenses: With a runner on first and third, what will the Royals do with the ball if the runner on first takes off for second? My deal here is the Royals tell me stuff, but I don’t write anything that could help the opposition. This probably falls under that policy, so you’ll just have to wait until it happens in a game to find out what the Royals have planned.
What I like about you: George Brett walked by and said, “You know what I like about you?” (I started laughing because it sounded like there was only one thing — which might be true). “You’re here to learn something every day.” Brett said he’s been doing the same thing. He’s got a son who pitches and one who catches, and he’s been listening to Dave Eiland’s side sessions and Cadahia’s work with catchers. If Brett hears a tip that can help his sons, he’s all ears.
Clearly, there’s always more to learn. If a guy in the Hall of Fame feels that way, how can the rest of us feel any different?
Brian Courington
1 year, 2 months ago“Clearly, there’s always more to learn. If a guy in the Hall of Fame feels that way, how can the rest of us feel any different? That is a huge statement and observation of Brett. All the players are talented, but only the best of the best work the hardest and pay attention to the smallest of details.
Lee Judge
1 year, 2 months agoBrian: Yeah, I found that really impressive: here’s George Brett, still trying to learn more baseball.
He was thrilled to find out that if his son separated his hands too late when he was pitching, his arm would be late and the ball would go high in the zone. Now George can look for that and remind his son what to do if he gets off track.
I’ve found this attitude pretty much universal among the people that have been around the game a long time; there’s always more to learn.
Doug Sisson, Chino Cadahia and I were talking about it this morning. I worried when I started this web site that I’d run out of things to write about. Doug and Chino said don’t worry—just keep digging and there will always be something new.
Sean Fischbach
1 year, 2 months agoWell how the heck did I miss this all week….??? At least you guys figured out how to link old article so could catch up! ;)
On Day 1 someone asked about Yuni’s defense but I never saw an answer. Does he really have a shot to start at second?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 2 months agoSean, I’ve seen from two different sources that Yuni looks smooth on the pivot, probably the toughest transition for an SS to 2B. For an SS, range shouldn’t be a problem at 2nd, nor the arm. If he’s about equal to Getz on defense, the bat will win the job and Getzie has an edge right now with his new swing. I think this is the best battle of the spring.
John Wilson
1 year, 2 months agoI’d also like to thank whoever came up with the links to go back and forth through the articles. The comments for articles are interesting also so it’s nice to easily go back and catch up.
You got a baseball compliment from George Brett. Dude that rocks!
Greg Tatro
1 year, 2 months agoI’ll say this in the nicest way…if Hochevar quits thinking and just pitches he will have a breakout year.
It works in other areas of life…like me that’s how I became a better dancer :).
Lee Judge
1 year, 2 months agoSean: Yeah, Ned Yost threw Betancourt’s name in the mix when it comes to second base. I’ve asked around and you get mixed opinion on whether him being the starter is the right move, but as Jim points out, he’s turning the double play naturally and that’s the toughest thing the second baseman has to do.
When he was here in 2010, there were times I wondered about his focus from pitch-to-pitch and if that’s a problem he might be better off playing in spurts than every day, but the people inside the organization would have a much better idea of whether that’s a legitimate view.
One thing nobody who watches him on a regular basis questions; his athleticism. I saw him make a terrific throw from third the other day that showed off his arm. He’s got some pop in his bat and I’ve even seen him take a walk since I’ve been here.
If Yuni wins the job the assumption is they keep Getz and send Giavotella to the minors to get at-bats. (Of course you know what they say about assumptions.)
Lee Judge
1 year, 2 months agoJim: I’ve asked about Betancourt going to his left and his range at second and still don’t know more than when I started. Unless a coach really trusts a reporter to use the information in the right way, they’re not going to be too critical of a player…and they shouldn’t be. That stuff should take place behind closed doors.
But if you know something’s an issue, you can start to watch for it and see for yourself.
One of the lines you hear around here a lot is: “Believe what you see.” There are lots of opinions and statistics and advanced metrics that can affect your judgment, but these guys believe the ultimate test is the eye-test.
Lee Judge
1 year, 2 months agoJohn: One thing these guys appreciate is someone who wants to learn. If you approach the game with a superior attitude, they don’t have much use for you. If you approach the game with a humble attitude, they’ll help you.
All of them had to have help to get where they are. Some coach or ex-player (and probably a lot of coaches and ex-players) helped these guys along the way. There’s a big tradition of passing this along: you helped me, now I help someone else.
You’ll even see a veteran help a rookie when the rookie is there to take the veteran’s job.
So if you’re patient enough to stand and watch a drill and then ask questions when it’s over, these guys will explain. They appreciate the attitude…and Goerge Brett’s no different.
(And, yeah, that DOES rock.)
Lee Judge
1 year, 2 months agoGreg: There’s a lot to what you say. You can be too smart and think your way into a slump. During our conversation, Hochevar called himself a “professional at getting in his own way.”
Luke says the key to his improvement late last season and in spring training this year, is learning to focus one pitch at a time. First he makes this pitch…then he makes the next pitch…then he makes the next pitch…and he does this throughout a game.
Thinking too far ahead or getting distracted by runners or situations doesn’t help. Keep it simple.
Joel Kallem
1 year, 2 months agoLuke’s comments parallel Frenchie’s the other day about Gordon and Hosmer. By focusing on one pitch at a time, he is doing what he does naturally and not trying to be “perfect”.
Lee Judge
1 year, 2 months agoJoel: Exactly. It takes a while to figure out that trying harder doesn’t work. As Hochevar pointed out, this isn’t football. You can’t get mad and knock someone down.
Finding the right level of effort and maintaining it is the key. Fortunately, the young players have guys like Luke and Frenchy who have had to go through that struggle and might be able to help players like Hosmer and Moose avoid it.
Joel Kallem
1 year, 2 months agoAgreed Lee. The value of “experience” outweighs the loss of “athleticism” by some of the veterans. Luke, Bruce Chen, and Frenchy are prime examples. Is Kendall serving a similar role for our young catchers? I assume that is one of the reasons the Royals have kept him close-by, but don’t know that for sure.
Lee Judge
1 year, 2 months agoJoel: Kendall is helping whoever needs it. Cadahia is in charge of the catchers, but I’ve heard several young players talk about getting advice from Jason.
A guy with that much experience will recognize things rookies don’t. Eric Hosmer told me a terrific story about Jason (which will be in our baseball section and posted here): Jason had noticed the way pitchers were going after Eric and Hosmer hadn’t picked up on it.
Hos said that taught him the level of attention that was required to succeed in the big leagues.
Jason has gone back home now, but will be around during the season. He gets a place to rehab and the Royals retain some valuable baseball knowledge.
Robert Blakey
1 year, 2 months agoHow much longer you going to get to stay down there?
Lee Judge
1 year, 2 months agoRobert: You mean at some point I have to come home? Actually, two weeks is enough. I’ll stay for the last spring training game on Sunday, April 1st and fly home on Monday, April 2nd.
The Royals play a couple more practice games after that, against the Padres, and then open against the Angels on Friday, April 6th.
I don’t know how much I’ll write between the 2nd and Opening Day, but I am generating a lot of material I’m not using.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 2 months agoLee, Great stuff as usual. Wish I was there enjoying spring training baseball. You have a dream job.
How has Johnathan Broxton looked to you? The little opportunity I’ve had to seen him on tv has been very positive. Do you think he’ll assume the closer’s role now that Soria is out for at least one full season?
Lee Judge
1 year, 2 months agoBrian: How does Jonathan look to me? HUGE. He threw yesterday and according to Ned Yost his fastball was 95-97 MPH and his slider was 89. Nasty stuff. Everybody knows what he can do when he’s healthy, so that’s the question: will he stay healthy?
Yesterday Yost talked about the possibility of going into Opening Day without naming a closer (more on that in the next post).
I’m glad you’re enjoying the site and, yeah, this is a pretty good gig.