Well, if you don’t like Chris Getz, you probably ought to skip this column. In the top of the ninth in a tie ballgame, with two outs and the go-ahead run on third base, Getz demonstrated why the people who play the game value him more than some of the people who attempt to analyze the game statistically. (By the way, I’m not trying to change anyone’s mind here: If you’ve got it made up, you’ve got it made up. But if you want to know what others see in a player like Getz, then this situation is worth examining.)
Two down, Mike Moustakas is on third after doubling and moving over on Brayan Pena’s ground ball to the right side. Moose being on third is a big deal: It means he can score on an error, an infield hit or a wild pitch (among other possibilities).
Joaquin Benoit is on the mound. He quickly gets ahead of Getz 0-2. Getz goes into two-strike mode: Move your contact zone back, anticipate off-speed, fight off fastballs and be aggressive with any pitch close to the zone. Benoit tries several change-ups down, but never bounces a pitch. Because the pitches aren’t bounced, Getz is able to get a piece of them. I’ve got no clue what Benoit thinks of catcher Alex Avila’s defensive abilities, but if Joaquin has any doubt about Avila’s blocking technique, bouncing a pitch is off the menu. (Blocking a pitch in the dirt with a runner on third might seem like a routine play at times, but giving the pitcher the confidence to throw his nastiest stuff when he needs it most isn’t routine.)
Benoit alternates between fastballs and change-ups, trying to throw Getz’s timing off, but Getz keeps fouling pitches off. On the eighth pitch of the at-bat, Benoit tries a fastball low and away. Getz hits it to the shortstop’s right and beats the throw to first base. Moose scores, Royals up 3-2. Jonathan Broxton closes out the ninth with a save, Tim Collins gets the win.
Ask Kevin Seitzer about Getz and he’ll tell you he is a very intelligent hitter who always gives you an “appropriate” at-bat. That means Getz understands what needs to be done and attacks the plate appearance in an appropriate way.
Go ahead and disdain Getz if that’s your preference. But understand that the people who play the game may have a different point of view that doesn’t coincide with yours. You may not understand what Getz is doing on this team, but I’m guessing there are ballplayers flying back to KC tonight who are pretty glad he is.
Game notes
In the eighth inning, Billy Butler struck out looking with a runner in scoring position. We’ve gone around and around on this subject: Is a strikeout looking any worse than a strikeout swinging? Baseball people tend to think it is. The outcomes of the Butler and Getz at-bats are why: Put the ball in play and something good might happen.
Assists can be a bad way to measure outfield arms. If your arm is good enough, people often stop running on you, which is why I gave Jeff Francoeur a hard time last season. If his arm’s so good, what’s up with all the assists? Jeff said the odds usually favor the runner, but he was in a good throwing streak—which seems to be continuing this year.
People have asked why Moustakas sometimes double-pumps before letting his throw go. He’s waiting for Hosmer to get over to first base.
Getz tripled in the second inning. When Miguel Cabrera applied the tag, he also shoved Getz with his glove. Getz shot him a look, then started laughing. Cabrera wasn’t serious about shoving him off the bag; he was just goofing around (which he often does with baserunners). The most interesting part of the exchange (and I’ll have to ask tomorrow) is what Getz planned to do if he thought Cabrera was serious—tell his dad? I’m not sure Getz or anybody else wants a piece of Cabrera.
In the third inning, a shift worked when Brad Eldred lined out to second base. It’s easy to remember when they don’t work, but when someone is positioned right in front of a ball, we tend to forget it. Hope someone on the Royals is counting.
Alcides Escobar was thrown out trying to steal third in the fifth inning, so some people are going to complain the Royals are being too aggressive on the base paths (more on that soon). Generally, the runners are given the relevant delivery times, a key to watch for and the green light. According to the MLB broadcasters, Esky had been 7-7 in previous attempts when stealing third. This time Alcides did not appear to have a good jump (you’re supposed to have a good lead and a good jump when stealing third). Jarrod Dyson was at the plate, and a left-handed hitter gives the catcher a clear throwing lane. In this case, the fault may lie with the execution, not the philosophy.
We’ve been arguing over whether a base stealer helps a hitter more than a baserunner who doesn’t usually steal. In the top of the sixth with Alex Gordon on first, Justin Verlander tried to pick him off three times in a row. Following Doug Sisson’s advice to watch the quality of the pitch to the plate after three successive pickoff attempts, I was paying close attention. When he finally went to the plate, Verlander drilled Billy Butler with a pitch that got away from him. Hosmer’s grounder to first moved both runners up, which allowed Gordon to score on Jeff Francoeur’s grounder to short. Studies seem to show that overall, a base stealer’s influence is negligible; instances like this are why ballplayers disagree.
Part of why Verlander is Verlander: Hosmer got into two fastball counts in that sixth inning at-bat. 2-0, Verlander threw Hosmer an 85-mph change-up; 3-1, he served up a 97-mph fastball. Hard for a hitter to sit on anything.
What’s true in general
What’s true in general might not be true in a specific situation. Games like this are why a lot of major-league managers believe you have to be able to play “small ball” when the situation demands it. Verlander pitched eight innings and never gave up two hits in a single inning. A lot of managers believe if you wait for the big inning with a top-of-the-line pitcher who’s on his game, you’re going to have a long wait.
Verlander gave the Royals two extra runners: He walked Dyson in the first and hit Butler in the sixth. Dyson stole second base, Gordon moved him over to third by grounding to the right side and Hosmer drove Dyson in. (If I were on the other side of this argument, I’d point out that Hosmer drove him in with a double and Dyson probably would’ve scored anyway, but since I’m on this side of the argument, I’ll point out that if Dyson hadn’t stolen second, the Gordon ball might’ve been a double play.)
The other run scored because Hosmer moved the runners over in the sixth. No ground ball to the right side, no run on Francoeur’s groundout. I don’t think this is going to change anyone’s mind, but this is a good example of why ballplayers and managers believe this approach is necessary when the game calls for it. And with Verlander on the mound, most ballplayers think the game calls for it.
Jim Wilson
1 year agoIt was a classic at-bat. I’m a Getz fan for the remainder of today.
No one ballgame or occurence proves anything one way or the other. Small ball may have won a game today but may have lost a game or two ealier in the season. The idea is to give yourself the best chance in a given situation but outcomes often do not follow the odds.
Eileen Schmeichel
1 year agoExcellent PA by Getz. However, despite how cute you are Lee, I find it a tad bit disingenuous to conflate one at-bat with the triumph of small ball over statistic analysis. If small ball is such a triumph, why are the Royals several games under .500? How many times have the Royals lost baserunners or valuable outs to ill-advised stolen base attempts or the Royal’s pernicious addiction to bunting? Lastly, because ballplayers or coaches or managers have a certain viewpoint or belief in something doesn’t make it valid. In the real world, from the classroom, to the boardroom, to the person manning a cash register at a fast food joint, results are measured. It doesn’t cut it to simply “think” something works or is beneficial. If it ain’t in the numbers, it likely ain’t there to begin with. Sure, there may be a possibility that the appropriate measure hasn’t been devised yet to measure some of the unassailable baseball wisdom you continue to champion. However, there is a lot of evidence that would contradict, diminish, or outright negate some of the old school tropes you continually celebrate. But yeah, nice at-bat by Getz.
Thayne Griffin
1 year agoSo hard for me to like Getz (or any 2B we have), but I must give him his due for beating out that ground ball in the 9th. Clutch AB.
Didn’t catch the game today on TV…did Crow throw a bad pitch for the HR?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago“However, there is a lot of evidence that would contradict, diminish, or outright negate some of the old school tropes you continually celebrate.”
The site’s readers are free to offer that evidence. We had an interesting discussion after the previous game of BsR and ARM. If you have something that shows that Getz is really a bad ballplayer who just got lucky this one time, it will be examined politely and respectfully. Let’s see what you got, and welcome:)
“If small ball is such a triumph, why are the Royals several games under .500?”
An inconsistent pitching staff, injuries, and the big-ball players stinking up the stadium. Gordon, Hosmer, and Frenchy have been fairly much absent from this season, although they are coming around. The Royals have the power to play big ball, but that doesn’t do much good against Justin Verlander when he’s on. Small-ball is a tool used in certain circumstances, like today against Verlander and the reliever who struck Hosmer out on three straight changes a couple of weeks ago in a high-leverage situation.
Ben Weddle
1 year agoI agree with you Lee, and I don’t even think you’re that cute. Getz is a thinking man’s ballplayer who’s tougher than a two dollar steak.
Jim Wilson
1 year agoWhat compounds the issue is that an at-bat like Getz’s somehow counts far more than just one good at-bat. If it had been a one pitch homerun it would not be nearly as big of a deal. We should ignore Getz’s career line of .256/.316/.312 (my God, is it really that bad?) because a few times a season he produces one great, old school at-bat. Of course, the rest of the time he makes outs in big bunches. But, hey, did I mention that he does things the “right” way?
Jim Wilson
1 year agoBut, like I said, I’m a fan of his for the remainder of the day.
Jim Wilson
1 year ago“Gordon, Hosmer, and Frenchy have been fairly much absent from this season … ”
Agree on the last two. Ignoring the starting pitching, I’m still very high on this team. One of the things I’ve seen so far this year that I like a lot is that last year is looking less and less like a fluke for Gordon. He is VERY quietly having a good season. He’s been a bit unlucky on balls in play, but his power numbers are consistent with last year and his walk rate is up considerably. Signing him to a long-term deal was a very smart move.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago“We should ignore Getz’s career line of .256/.316/.312 (my God, is it really that bad?) because a few times a season he produces one great, old school at-bat.”
Careers don’t take the field and career stats aren’t sensitive to inflection. And slash lines really don’t account for much information on a ballplayer.
“But, hey, did I mention that he does things the “right” way?”
And he has lots of Grit points. Which are surprisingly analogous to fWAR, but that seems a discussion that I’m alone in:)
As you might guess, I’ve seen most of these points before. Getzie’s slash line this year, small-sample and used in a platoon, is .308/.341/.436 and 0.4 fWAR after he changed his stance, swing, and approach, not unlike the Worst Outfield Ever before last season. Still an open question as to whether it will stick, but hard to knock his performance so far this year.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year agoGordon is trending upward, as is Frenchy. Hosmer is getting killed on BABIP at .155. No one seems too concerned about Gordon or Hoz at the moment, Gordon’s net Ks are tolerable at 8.1%, Hosmer’s surprisingly good at 3%. Those three get back to what can be expected and the team will be in much better shape.
Jim Wilson
1 year agoJim F.:
First off, I never said any such thing about the outfield last year. I thought the acquisitions were smart moves. That doesn’t mean I’m high on Frenchy long-term, but he was a bargain with a high ceiling. You (and Lee) make a habit of attacking people’s positions by pointing out the fallacy of some other person’s opinion on an unrelated topic. And, apparently, you both believe that finding one or a few exceptions completely discredits an idea — well any idea you don’t like anyway.
Chris Getz is as much a .308/.341/.436 hitter as Eric Hosmer is a .183/.262/.376 hitter.
Losing teams celebrate their players with grit while the winners celebrate their stars (with numbers that require no debate). Getz is at best a bit player and hardly worth the fuss. It’s extremely unlikely that he will be a part of a winning team in KC. If he is, it will be as a UINF playing a small role.
Jim Wilson
1 year agoJim F., Gordon’s SO rate has improved dramatically in just the past week. I think he’s a big time keeper. And I’ve always held out hope we was going to be a late bloomer. Everyone, and I mean everyone, thinks Hosmer will be a stud. I do too. When the winning days come (and they will (I hope)), Frenchy will be somewhere else and Wil Meyers’s stick will be amazing us.
Jim Wilson
1 year agoGordon’s SO rate: Sorry, “improved dramatically” was not what I intended. A week ago, his SO rate was a little high but it’s now in-line with his numbers last year.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago“his SO rate was a little high but it’s now in-line with his numbers last year.”
True. Earlier in the year he was fanning 30% of the time, odd given that one of the things he worked on with Kevin Seitzer over the winter was cutting down on Ks and Ks-looking. 20% seems about normal for top hitters.
“Frenchy will be somewhere else and Wil Meyers’s stick will be amazing us.”
That is the plan, Myers does a Clint Robinson on AAA this year, then next year does a Hosmer at Omaha, then Frenchy probably finishes his two year contract as the 4th OF if not traded.
“Getz is at best a bit player and hardly worth the fuss.”
That was the idea, Getz at Omaha playing SS and a little 3rd to become a UIF. Unfortunately, a hip injury derailed that plan, so Getzie is now a platoon 2B who is performing well above expectations after accepting the challenge to his career and making adjustments to enhance his value, as Gordon, Melky, Frenchy, and Bruce Chen did before him.
“Losing teams celebrate their players with grit”
Once more, “Grit” is rather nicely paralleling fWAR this year for the team. The Royals don’t use Grit, they develop their own stats, including from FieldFX which aren’t available to the general public. I’m sure that Grit is uncomfortable for the later, derivative systems to find that all their studies and spreadsheet time yields numbers similar to the much earlier Polk System. It surprised me, also. Major difference seems to be that WAR rates performance above replacement, Polk above zero. We’ll just have to see how all the players do in maintaining their changes. Several surprises in the order so far, Yuni walking more than striking out, Q walking at all.
Curtis Ruder
1 year agoIn 2005 Neifi Perez hit a walk-off grand slam. He still sucked as much as it is possible to suck and be in the big leagues. Frankly, I think he sucked more than that. But in the big leagues he was.
I am as happy as anyone that Getz came through and got the winning run home. But I would have felt a lot better at the beginning of the at bat if we had had a good hitter at the plate.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year agoJim F -
I can’t tell if you’re joking about all of these grit to fWAR comparisons, but if you are, you’re killing your credibility. You’ve rightly pointed out that our sample sizes are too small when people have brought up the team’s base stealing, Francouer’s hitting, defensive shifts, Yost’s bullpen usage, etc. Why poison that credibility by looking at Polk points and fWAR after 20 games and declare them similar?
As far as I can tell, nobody else here wants to rehash the debate on the merits of Polk points. It’s a counting stat. It’s going to bear some resemblance to other counting stats (I bet the correlation to plate appearances is much stronger than the correlation to fWAR though). If you’re serious about drawing comparisons to educate people, use a full year or two of data. If you’re just trying to reignite the debate, I have to wonder why.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year agoCurtis -
Brilliant analogy. I don’t think any other anecdote so perfectly captures the problem with reasoning by anecdotes than that one. I thought for a long time that Neifi never did anything good for the Royals, but if he can serve to educate our fans through this illustration, then maybe his time here wasn’t all bad.
John Wilson
1 year agoOk since we won yesterday to improve our road record to 7-6, I have been wondering: How many teams have ever started out 0-10 at home and still have a winning road record? This is one odd season.
Lee Judge
1 year agoThayne: Crow threw 12 pitches while facing three batters. 10 of them were fastballs between 94 and 96 miles an hour. Two of them were sliders in the mid-80s.
That’s an awful lot of pitches the same speed. (Although MLB lists some of them as 4-seamers and some as 2-seamers—but take that with a grain of salt, MLB thinks Mitch Maier throws a knuckle ball.)
I’m reluctant to second-guess pitch selection: the guys on the field have information we don’t, but the more pitches you see at the same speed, the easier they are to time.
Matthew LaMar
1 year agoLee,
If I might offer my opinion here, it seems that you have been getting too caught up in this ‘battle’ between stats and on-field views. The column here was very passive-aggressive towards statistics (with or without your intent to do so). Frankly, both you and the stats people have been stubborn in this prolonged debate, and the collateral damage has been the blog’s amount of interesting information.
Again, this is just the humble opinion of a regular reader, but continue doing the things which make your blog interesting. That is, you are able to engage with the players and coaches on a regular, informal basis and offer their insight and opinion in a way that neither Mellinger nor Dutton do. You have a unique position, and I for one would like to read articles that take advantage of this position.
Also, Getz has performed quite well so far. I hope it continues; that would solve one of the Royals’ depth issues.
Lee Judge
1 year agoEverybody else: My first point was to try to explain why baseball players, coaches and managers may like a plyer better than you do.
Looking at three numbers and saying this guy sucks is fine if that’s what you want to do—others may find other attributes (or deficiencies) to throw in the mix.
If you’ve got different criteria for a good ballplayer, different ballplayers will make those lists.
My second point was that while you may disdain “small ball” most of the time, there are games in which you better have the ability to play it. This was one of those games.
And if you have to play small ball, Chris Getz becomes a valuable player.
Steve Yeakel
1 year agoKudos to Chris Getz. And his earlier triple shows that his new stance is giving him some gap power. He is a fighter, he has never rolled over during the challenges from Aviles or Gia or Yuni. You have to admire that, however grudgingly. Having guys compete for spots is not a bad thing, and letting the best performer earn the time is not either. Maybe Dyson will take advantage of the time Cain is out to create some competition there. Maybe Hochever should be the long reliever if he is doing the worst out of him and Luis and Felipe. An important win for the Royals, and it was Chris Getz who stepped to the plate and got it done with the game on the line.
Lee Judge
1 year agoMatthew: I think you’re exactly right. My role in this is to provide insight from the players, coaches and manager. My analysis of a game should be from that point of view.
If others disagree, so be it. But hearing what the people who are on the field have to say is the very reason for this site’s existence.
I’ll try to a better job of concentrating on that and not the “eyeball” vs. metric debate.
Thanks for the reminder.
Jim Wilson
1 year agoJim F., you and Lee have changed my view (at least a little) on several topics. But I couldn’t agree with Brendan more that your recent statements about the Polk system damage your credibility. I assumed it was tongue in cheek the first time or two. I hope my assumption was correct.
Jim Kissane
1 year agoChris Getz’s at-bat Wednesday really draws a line in the sand between sabermetrics and gut instinct. To a sabermetrician, there are (literally) hundreds of other players you would rather have taking that at-bat instead of Getz because Getz’s numbers stink. But to a “baseball man,” Getz is your guy because he’s gutsy, or he’s got grit, or he’s a clutch hitter, any of those things that it’s hard to wrap a calculator around.
I mean, baseball is a game of statistics, we all know that, and yet we’d be less than honest if we said there aren’t some intangibles at work here. Otherwise, what the hell is Bill Mazeroski doing hitting a seventh-game, ninth-inning home run in 1960 to beat a Yankee team that absolutely pulverized the Pirates in every statistical category?
When I was growing up in St. Louis, the Cardinal shortstop was Dal Maxvill, a guy without many physical gifts but who, like Getz, did all the little things right and, curiously, always seemed to be making big plays when you needed them. People would say, “The Cardinals have a good team, but is Dal Maxvill the best you can do at shortstop?” Still, Bob Gibson wouldn’t take the mound without Maxvill in the lineup, and that was good enough for me (and I’d feel that way about Alcides Escobar if I pitched for the Royals).
If I were to speculate, my guess would be that the people in the front-office lean more toward sabermetrics and the guys in the dugout are more inclined to temper that a little with instinct. Is that accurate, Lee? I know all managers use statistics to some degree - Tony LaRussa had a number to back up every decision he made - but are there some managers who occasionally trust their gut over the numbers?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago“I can’t tell if you’re joking about all of these grit to fWAR comparisons, but if you are, you’re killing your credibility.”
Guess that’s the curse of being unwilling to discuss Polk or even to look at it and understand it. As I pointed out in the exchange about ARM and BsR, Polk was much more useful in analyzing the particular plays than SABR was.
“But I would have felt a lot better at the beginning of the at bat if we had had a good hitter at the plate.”
Eric Hosmer fanned against the same pitcher on three straight changes a couple of weeks back in a critical situation, Alex walked back to the dugout with his bat on his shoulder after Verlander’s 131st pitch a couple of weeks ago with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th when a simple single probably wins the game.
“But I couldn’t agree with Brendan more that your recent statements about the Polk system damage your credibility.”
Easy enough to compare the systems as the year goes on, take Grit points and move the decimal point two spaces left, then compare to fWAR. Not unreasonable that they should be somewhat comparable as they attempt the same thing, although the much older Polk system was put together on a wall chart by a baseball man without computers.
Jim Wilson
1 year agoOkay, it’s damaged beyond repair.
Lee Judge
1 year agoJim: In regards to your manager’s gut instinct vs. numbers question: Every manager I ever talked to had all the numbers available. Sometimes keeping the manager aware of the matchup numbers is the bench coach’s job.
When you see them looking through those binders (no laptops in the dugout—yet) that’s what they’re doing.
What’s going on that particular night can change the approach. The book may say pitch this guy away and the catcher looks down and the hitter has crept up on the plate. (That’s what the catcher is checking during the sign-giving procedure.)
Malcolm Gladwell wrote a great book called “Blink” about gut instinct and how it can be useful when utilized by an expert. Things are registering on the subconscious that can’t be measured.
Jim Kissane
1 year agoAlso, Lee, on your game notes, I agree that a strike three called is galling, but I find the half-swing third strike even more irritating. Late in his career, Mike Sweeney was the checked-swing strikeout king. I wanted to scream the words of Yoda at him: “Either do, or do not.” (And now you’ve had a Star Wars citation and a Hebrew lesson in your blog in the last two days. Who’da thunk?) The best you’ll ever get out of a checked-swing is a weak grounder, and at its worst, your fate is in the hands of not one umpire but two, which cannot possibly help a batter. I much prefer self-reliance (which adds Emerson to our philosophical discussion).
Eric Blatt
1 year agoGetz isn’t awful, but he’s also probably not very good (hot start aside). I appreciate that Getz was able to foul off pitches to put the ball in play, and I was glad that the ball found enough of the hole between SS and 3B to allow Getz to beat the throw.
But let’s be frank here—all Getz really achieved was avoiding a strikeout. He hit a 5 hopper that had eyes.
Now I will give Getz credit where credit is due. One of Getz’s talents as a hitter is his ability to avoid strikeouts. And he does so while seeing pitches and working the count for walks. There’s not many MLB hitters that strike out less than 12% of the time while walking more than 7%.
Getz isn’t a total sinkhole at the plate, but it’s a little silly to lionize a 5 hopper to short. I think everyone can agree that the team would have had a better chance to score there if Gordon or Billy were batting.
One other thing that I think we can all agree on—Getz is better than Yuni. Much better. Someone should clue Ned in.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year agoJim F -
Last year, fWAR had Alex Gordon as the team’s best hitter (by a huge margin), best baserunner, and second best defender (behind Escobar). His total performance was historic — the best by a Royal fielder since at least Beltran’s best year and maybe the best since Brett. Polk points not only did not recognize the historic year, it didn’t even have him first on his team. That honor went to the team leader in plate appearances.
Two years ago the Polk points crown also went to the fielder who registered the most plate appearances, Yuniesky Betancourt. Betancourt did not finish in the top ten on the team in fWAR.
If you think Polk points are great, that’s great. If you think that they’re outdated now but were once ahead of their time, that’s great. Those are subjective opinions.
If you think that they correlate well to fWAR, that’s an objective fact. Looking at the leaderboard suggest that Polk points have a strong correlation to playing time and fWAR has a weaker correlation, but it you think there’s something more than that, get the 2010 and 2011 full-season numbers and run the analysis.
John Wilson
1 year agoJim - I just want to say your latest comment cracked me up. For a moment I wanted to “like” your comment. Then I remembered I’m not on facebook :-)
Eric - I think Ned already knows Getz is the better defensive player. Yuni won his role on the team by showing he had offense in spring training. While Getz may not be stellar at the plate with power, he does seem to find a way in clutch situations and at second he isn’t afraid to get his uniform dirty. That’s what I’ve noticed whether it is a fair statement or not.
KC Guy
1 year agoThe thing with a player like Getz, as a site like this attempts to highlight, is that there really is some value in doing almost everything correctly and at least decently. Yet it seems like his entire worth is being judged by his batting numbers. No one is going to tell you that Chris Getz is one of your best sluggers, or should be hitting in the middle of the lineup, or anything like that. But he does give a professional at-bat every time, and will almost always be able to do what you need him to do. But doing what needs to be done isn’t really glamorous, and doesn’t come through in the stats in a way that’s easy to see.
It’s the same with his defense – he doesn’t have the best range, but he gets to almost every ball he should get to, and makes the right play when he gets the ball. There have already been a couple of times this season where Betancourt failed to get to a ball it looked like he should have gotten to, and afterwards everyone’s yelling “YUNIIIII!!” and getting bent out of shape about having him on the roster. Yet if Getz is in the game and gets to those balls, it’s pretty much forgotten by the next inning and he never really gets credit for making the play.
His speed and versatility also help. Most players on the team would have had to get a clean hit to the outfield in order to score that run yesterday and while, yes, it’s an isolated event in a single game, the fact is that’s what it took yesterday to win the game. That’s the thing that seems to get lost in just looking at big picture/overall numbers, is that there are going to be a large number of games every season that really do come down to a single play that either was or was not made. You know, Brayan Pena’s feet get too far behind home plate on a throw from the outfield, and all of the sudden you lost. Or, Brayan Pena grounds out to make the second out of the inning, but in doing so at least does it in a way that Moustakas can move to 3rd and score the game-winning run on an infield single. An outfielder overthrowing a cut-off guy and allowing a trailing runner to move to the next base might end up being the difference in the game. A 2nd baseman not trying to force a double play and simply taking an out at 1st might end up being important down the line. So, having players on the field who know the game, know what they’re supposed to do before the pitch is thrown, understand their own abilities and don’t try to force plays really is a valuable thing to have.
But, if all you care about is their hitting stats, you can judge them that way, too..
KC Guy
1 year ago“I think everyone can agree that the team would have had a better chance to score there if Gordon or Billy were batting.”
Even people who like Getz understand that, overall, Gordon and Butler are better hitters, but they were batting 2nd & 3rd, and the 8th spot in the lineup was up. And, in that situation, Getz was a pretty good guy to have at the plate..
Eric Blatt
1 year agoJohn -
Being “unafraid to dirty one’s uniform” is faint praise. The Royals have a dozen players in their organization that can play a little 2B and aren’t afraid to get their uniforms dirty (notably, Yuniesky Betancourt is not in this group).
What matters for Getz keeping his job ahead of those dozen players is how well he hits and fields. His defense seems solid. His hitting has been a pleasant surprise. I think Gio is a readily available upgrade, but until Getz stops hitting, there’s no reason to make a change.
As for Yuni, after 7 years and 1 million American cheeseburgers, he literally could not have hit well enough in Spring Training to prove that his .293 career OBP was a thing of the past. He’s fat, he’s slow, he’s undisciplined, he doesn’t give much effort, and he swings for the fences at the cost of his OBP. If that’s your game, you need to be a DH hitting 35 bombs a year. If you’re instead hitting 10 HR’s while playing paper weight in the middle of the infield, you have no value to an MLB club.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago“Polk points not only did not recognize the historic year, it didn’t even have him first on his team. That honor went to the team leader in plate appearances.”
Who was also the team leader in hits, among other things. Appearances do factor into any evaluation system, Royals’ team WARs in hitting, fielding, and pitching diminished by the two rain outs. Alex got dinged also by his high Ks, which worried him and Seitzer enough to spend the winter working on it.
“If you think Polk points are great, that’s great.”
I think that Polk comes surprisingly close to SABR evaluations, which makes it worthy of a little more than a dismissive wave of the hand, and some advantages because it quantifies some things that fangraphs has yet to. Interesting to consider how little difference there is after 35 years of studies and spread sheets. And they are certainly close enough that Polk deserves respect beyond the fact that it and similar manager created systems are fathers to the current efforts.
“but it you think there’s something more than that, get the 2010 and 2011 full-season numbers and run the analysis.”
I assume you already have run the analysis, something beyond my pencil and notepad skills. How great was the difference among fWAR, BR, and Polk over various time spans? How well did the various WARs and the WAZ correlate to actual number of team wins? There are variations among even modern metrics.
“I think everyone can agree that the team would have had a better chance to score there if Gordon or Billy were batting.”
I wonder if those people realize that baseball isn’t cricket, so the manager doesn’t get to choose who he sends up in a particular situation. Of course, Billy and Gordon were up an inning or two before the 9th. How did that work?
Thayne Griffin
1 year agoDID WE ALL SEE THE NEWS?! Yuni to the DL! (Can’t believe I’m mildly overjoyed that he has to get injured to not play). Finally giving Falu a chance on the big league club.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year agoJim F -
I have not done a comparison between Polk points and fWAR, and I have no intention of doing one. The burden is on the person making the claim.
I am doing my best to avoid the debate you want to start. If your claim is that Polk points is more similar to fWAR than, say, alphabetical order is to fWAR, I’ll readily agree (even without a study) so maybe we can find common ground there.
I also don’t want to discourage Lee from spending all the time to compile Polk Points. He says it helps him see the game better, so more power to him.
Beyond that, I think it’s best to just let sleeping dogs lie.
If you think Polk was smart to use his system in the 1970s, that’s great. I’ve never read any criticism of him doing that. If you think it’s amazing how much effort we put into ever smaller refinements in our ability to measure (the atomic clock is better than the sundial, but the sundial’s pretty good), that’s interesting anthropological commentary, I guess. If you’re trying to convince people who embraced advanced stats to embrace Polk points, I think everyone’s time would be better spent on something else. The methodologies and results are sufficiently different that the chasm is too wide to bridge.
John Wilson
1 year agoI’m surprised Yuni didn’t get relegated to the DL sooner. You can only play noticably gimpy for so long. Add to that Yuni’s range isn’t great to begin with and getting him healed and back to his 100% seems critical.
Here is hoping Falu is a pleasant surprise!
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago“I think Gio is a readily available upgrade, but until Getz stops hitting, there’s no reason to make a change.”
Gio had his opportunity, but his secret hip labrum hurt his play last fall and his recovery from surgery wasn’t apparently complete in spring training. He even started poorly at Omaha, but his bat is now showing signs of life, so he’s back on the radar and maybe healthy. If he hits .350 and shows improved glove at Omaha he’ll get another chance soon enough.
“I have no intention of doing one. The burden is on the person making the claim.”
I did a quick one the other day for this year and was surprised by how closely they tracked.
“If you’re trying to convince people who embraced advanced stats to embrace Polk points, I think everyone’s time would be better spent on something else.”
It’s fairly obvious that what I’m trying to do is to show that so-called advanced metrics aren’t that big a step up from the much older system and that Polk is probably more useful on a game and play basis than long term averages, although I recognize SABR as a superior tool for fantasy leagues based on sabremetrics.
Eric Blatt
1 year ago“I wonder if those people realize that baseball isn’t cricket, so the manager doesn’t get to choose who he sends up in a particular situation.”
I was using Billy and Alex to illustrate my point that when you need to drive in a run to win, hitting talent matters more than intangibles. There are heaps of players in the minors that can offer great (even Getzian) situational awareness, but they’re not big leaguers because they can’t hit well enough.
Or to put it another way, Billy and Alex aren’t the only hitters that would have given the Royals a better chance to drive in Moose than Getz gave. In fact, which Royals batters would have given a worse chance to drive in the runner? Does it have to do with their hitting talent or their intangibles?
Jeffry L Jack
1 year agoKC Guy, thank you for your comments, I think you fairly stated the case. You appear to understand what Lee is trying to do with this blog.
Also, can’t believe you were the first (and only) to mention Pena moving Moose to third by hitting the ball to the right side with one out. That is exactly the type of “good” at bat Lee has been talking about for a couple of years now, and that I would not have noticed if not for this blog. To me, that is the beauty of baseball.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago“In fact, which Royals batters would have given a worse chance to drive in the runner? Does it have to do with their hitting talent or their intangibles?”
Yuni, perhaps, being the other 2nd baseman, Mitch as an LH PH. Getz has something of a history in the late innings when a run is needed. This wasn’t a Neifi Perez total surprise.
“you need to drive in a run to win, hitting talent matters more than intangibles.”
The intangible in this at-bat, the ability to fight off good pitches and wait for something that can be handled, is one of Billy’s strengths, but, given Alex’s one in five strike outs, isn’t a great strength of Gordon’s. Seitzer and Gordon worked on that in the off-season, so they seem to think it more important than some others might. And as far as “intangibles” go, they’re only intangible in some evaluation systems. The professional at-bat is tangible in both Polk and Seitzer.
Eric Blatt
1 year agoJim —
You’re right that Getz slapping a slow grounder to SS wasn’t a total surprise. You’re also right that Yuni would have been worse than Getz in that situation. What mattered for that situation was batting average, not grittiness or patience or situational awareness. Getz is a career .257 hitter and I’ll spot him .267 hoping that he’s better this year.
A ~26.7% chance for a base hit. That’s what Getz gave the team. When we focus too much on the little things, we risk losing touch with the big picture.
KC Guy
1 year agoAlex Gordon is also a career .261 hitter, so, in general terms, he has pretty much the same chance of getting a hit in that situation as Getz.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago“That’s what Getz gave the team.”
How does that compare to Yuni and Mitch?
Getz’ two-out, RISP over his career is .299/.349/.368. Billy’s career is .258/.383/.373, just as a comparison. Alex’ is .228/.342/.371. Mitch .218/.363/.297. Neifi Perez, for you, Curtis, was career .266/.324/.368.
This year Getz has .571/.571.571 with 4 hits and 4 RBIs in 7 PAs.
All numbers from baseball reference; hitting, splits, career.
Sean Fite
1 year agothe big picture is that Getz won the game by fighting off pitches, and having enough speed to beat the throw…period. his career numbers don’t matter since we aren’t plugging his at-bat into a fantasy simulation. Getz did what he’s paid to do, and he did it well enough to get the victory. that’s all that matters.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year agoSean, well said.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago“Frenchy will be somewhere else and Wil Meyers’s stick will be amazing us.”
JW, Wil Myers has started the last five games in CF for Omaha. That takes Frenchy out of the equation. Clint Scoles has a nice piece on Pine Tar Press about it.
Jim Wilson
1 year agoReally? I didn’t know he had the speed to play centerfield. Possibly a short-term thing with us being thin in CF right now. But CF will belong to Bubba long-term, not Myers.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago1) Myers is in NW Arkansas, not Omaha
2) Bob Dutton from today’s chat on kcstar.com: “Bob Dutton: First, while Myers is a pretty good athlete, I can’t imagine him playing center field at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals do like to move their minor-league outfielders to all positions to help them get a better feel for the game. I think that’s all this is…”
Jim Wilson
1 year agoSean, from the beginning, I think everyone said Getz did a great job at the plate. The debate surrounds Getz’s value in general not his performance in that one PA.
Jim Wilson
1 year agoThanks, Brendan. That makes a lot more sense. It would be great if he could play a passable CF since Frenchy otherwise blocks his way. My best guess is we trade Frenchy (assuming he shows enough to be desireable to a contender) prior to the trade deadline next year and install Myers in RF.
Jim Wilson
1 year agoBrendan, based on the IPs by our starters so far, I’m not sure that the starters innings would go down that much and the reliever up that much under the system you were debating the other day. Lol (because it’s better than crying).
Jim Wilson
1 year agoFrenchy’s career SB% is less than 60%. Last year is was no 62.5% (didn’t check for POs). This year he has been thrown out twice and picked off once without a steal. Why do they keep giving him the green light?
Dave Parre
1 year agoHappy Birthday Lee. Hoping you all the best. Thanks for your hard work and insights with this column. For a transplanted KC man now living in Seattle it’s a nice way to stay in contact with the team and other fans opinions.Keep up the good work and again, Happy B-day!
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago“Why do they keep giving him the green light?”
Situational and based on pitcher time to the plate, catcher pop time, and Frenchy’s times to the next base. With one out and Quinteros at the plate it might have been a percentage move. Frenchy does seem to have lost a step, started last fall.
“It would be great if he could play a passable CF since Frenchy otherwise blocks his way.”
According to Clint Scoles, part of the issue may be Cain’s durability, three missed-time leg injuries in four years including the current groin/flexor problem that isn’t responding well to rehab. Maybe Bob Dutton didn’t mention that? Cain’s health issues could actually get Wil Myers to KC a little faster.
“1) Myers is in NW Arkansas, not Omaha”
Oops…
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago“Bob Dutton from today’s chat on kcstar.com:
He also said that Getz does the little things well:)