Last September, I watched the final game of the Royals’ 2011 season: Royals vs. Twins, Bruce Chen against Carl Pavano, a 1-0 victory for the Twins. You can go to the “By Game” section here on the site to see what I had to say about it then. Recently, I watched the game again, this time with my friend, Russ Morman. Russ played at Wichita State, was the Chicago White Sox No. 1 draft pick, made his first major-league appearance with the Sox in 1986 and later played for the Royals and the Florida Marlins. Russ is currently the Triple-A hitting coach for the San Francisco Giants.
I wanted to watch this game with him to see how many things he would notice that I had missed. I took notes while Russ talked about the game. Here are the results:
Pavano is pitching from the third-base side of the pitching rubber. It allows him to hide the ball as long as possible from the hitters and exaggerates the angle of his pitches.
The first batter of the game is Jarrod Dyson. In a 2-1 count, Pavano throws Dyson an 87-mph sinker. Dyson is slightly out on his front foot and flies out to left. This is not Pavano’s best fastball: He subtracted a few miles an hour when Dyson was in a hitter’s count.
We see the same pattern all night from both Pavano and Chen: When the hitter gets into a good hitter’s count or when there’s a runner in scoring position, the two veterans take something off their pitches. They use the hitter’s aggressiveness against the hitter. This results in hitters being slightly out in front of pitches at critical moments.
By getting Dyson out on his front foot, it’s more likely that he will hit the ball in the air. Pavano wants Dyson to hit fly balls because then Dyson’s speed doesn’t matter. Dyson wants to keep the ball on the ground and turn every play into a foot race.
In the top of the first inning, Billy Butler doubles to right field. Replays show he’s probably out but gets the call. The tag is made just before Billy’s foot hits the bag, and the culprit is the pop-up slide. A pop-up slide requires the front leg to be flexible, which means the foot slightly retracts as the runner nears the bag, delaying the moment of contact. On close plays, runners should go straight into the bag and forget popping up.
Eric Hosmer follows Butler and, true to form with a runner in scoring position, Pavano tries to use a hitter’s aggressiveness against him. Pavano starts Hosmer with an 80-mph change-up. Hosmer doesn’t swing at the first pitch but eventually flies out to left.
Chen takes the mound. I tell Russ that Chen credits former Royals pitching coach Bob McClure for teaching him the cutter, and Russ says that pitch might be the difference between the pitcher Chen was and the pitcher he is now. A cut fastball from a left-handed pitcher moves in laterally to a right-handed hitter. This movement allows Chen to come inside with fastballs as slow as 82 miles an hour and still get in on the hitter’s hands. It also gives Chen a fastball that can move in three ways: The cutter moves in on a righty, the two-seamer sinks while moving away and the four-seamer is straight.
MLB.com describes these cutters as “sliders,” so don’t believe everything you see on the internet.
Both pitchers have great tempo (although Chen’s tempo is better out of the windup than out of the stretch). Both pitchers are working fast, getting it and chucking it. Russ points out that it’s the last game of the season and nobody is screwing around. Everybody’s ready to go home.
In the third inning, Dyson bunts to the right side and the Twins’ second baseman, Brian Dinkelman, covers the bag. Dinkelman runs to the back of the bag and puts his foot on the back corner. This is a mistake. If Dinkelman runs to the front of the bag and puts his foot on the front corner, he catches the ball sooner and Dyson is out.
In the bottom of the third inning with one out and Twins catcher Drew Butera on first base, center fielder Ben Revere hits a single to right field. Lorenzo Cain drops to his knees to knock the ball down, but Butera still stops at second. Failure to take advantage of Cain’s poor throwing position probably costs the Twins a run. The next batter, Trevor Plouffe, hits a fly ball to center field that might’ve scored Butera had he made it to third.
Both right fielders, Cain and Michael Cuddyer, have trouble with balls off the wall. At Target Field, a ball that hits the right-field wall padding comes off softly, while a ball that hits the concrete one inch above that padding comes off like a rocket. Weird ballpark features make for tentative players.
In the fifth inning, Mike Moustakas singles and then steals second. Except it wasn’t a steal: It was a hit and run, but Cain missed the pitch. Cain goes on to strike out. Moustakas is then picked off while Mitch Maier is at the plate. With two outs, teams usually forget pickoffs and concentrate on the batter, so the Twins saw something that made them go after Moustakas. On the replay, we see what they saw: Moustakas has a very big lead at second. Baserunners worried about their lack of speed will try to get a good jump off second with two outs, knowing they’ll probably be waved home. Moustakas got too big a lead, the Twins saw it and took advantage.
Moustakas tries a “swim move” to get back to second after the pickoff throw: He sticks his left hand out, hoping the middle infielder will reach for it, then pulls it back and tries to reach around the tag with his right hand. Shortstop Plouffe splits the difference and tags Moustakas in the face.
By the fifth inning, Chen has lost velocity. It’s the end of a long season, and most pitchers find their velocity down in late September. In this game, Pavano tops out at 91 mph and Chen tops out at 89. Russ asks me how often they threw their hardest and the answer is very seldom. Both waited until a few extra miles an hour would do the most good and then threw their best fastball. But even as their velocity dropped, they still had great location and pitched effectively.
In the fifth, Revere strikes out looking with a runner on second base. In my original article, I wondered if Revere had been peeking or was getting signs from the runner. I thought he might have gotten locked up when Salvador Perez made a last-second change in location. Russ doesn’t think so; he believes Revere was guessing and guessed wrong. Russ also thinks striking out looking with a runner in scoring position is a big mistake.
Pavano beats Butler on 90-mph fastball in the seventh inning. It’s the hardest pitch Pavano’s thrown Butler all night. Butler is jammed and rolls an easy grounder to second base. All the soft stuff that Butler has seen up until now set up the 90-mph fastball.
Russ says Chen and Pavano are two guys it’s hard to think with; hitters don’t get what they expect when they expect it. Hosmer’s three at-bats illustrate the point: In Hosmer’s first at-bat, Pavano’s first pitch was an 80-mph change-up. In his second at-bat, Pavano’s first pitch was a 90-mph fastball, and in Hosmer’s third at-bat, Pavano’s first pitch was an 81-mph change. Pavano keeps changing speeds and Hosmer goes hitless.
We also note that, once again, a left-hander cannot put his hat on straight. (Check out Chen this summer.)
In the eighth inning, Moustakas triples with nobody out. The first batter, Cain, grounds out hard to Pavano on a 3-1 count and Moustakas holds at third. The next batter, Maier, takes the first pitch, a sinker. Maier lets it go because he wants something up that he can elevate to the outfield. But this pitch has so much movement it glances off Butera’s mitt. It rolls away, but not far enough for Moustakas to score. Moustakas does not have a great lead at third because the Twins have the infield in, and Moustakas has to be the same distance from the bag as the third baseman. (A runner doesn’t want to get doubled off on a line drive to third.)
Later in the at-bat, Pavano sees something in Maier’s swing that he wants to exploit and calls his catcher to the mound. Pavano has Maier reaching for a splitter on the next pitch, and Maier grounds out softly to the mound. Either the Royals did not have the “contact play” on (the runner breaks for home if he sees the ball come down off the bat) or Moustakas made a good read and was able to get back to third. Alcides Escobar grounds out, and the Royals’ best chance to score is over.
In the bottom of the ninth, Twins left fielder Joe Benson grounds out to Escobar. Escobar appears to wait back on the ball and rely on his arm. Russ tells me infielders with terrific arms can get into bad habits if they rely on that terrific arm too much.
The Twins all seem to have a similar approach at the plate: They tend to spread their feet out. This gives them good balance (hard to get them out on their front foot), but can hurt their power (less weight shift). Russ tells me that to emphasize balance, the Twins sometimes use a drill that requires their hitters to swing the bat while standing on a 2-by-10 plank elevated slightly off the ground.
Blake Wood replaces Chen in the bottom of the ninth inning with the score still 0-0. Despite throwing with much better velocity than Chen, Wood loses the game quickly when he gives up a run on a double, a groundout that moves the runner to third and a game-winning single.
Still with me? OK, I know that was longer than usual, but that’s the point: Despite having seriously studied the game for a couple of decades, I still can’t watch a game and see all of the things that a professional sees. Russ’ analysis of the game was deeper and more revealing. This is depressing in one sense (I’ll never be able to see the game at that level) and exciting in another (there’s still so much to learn). Which is why this site exists: We’ll never know as much about the game as professional ballplayers, but if we’re willing to listen, we can learn.
And maybe next week, I’ll write about the fifty other things that Russ pointed out.
John Schultz
1 year, 3 months agoThis was your best entry in a long list of good ones. The “inside angle” you provide offers more than any stat I can find and emphasizes how multifaceted the game is. How about posting a couple times a week! Thanks for all the hard work.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoJohn: Thanks, and I’m right there with you: I’m amazed when I hear this stuff as well. How a pop-up slide is slower than going straight into the bag or how tagging the front of first is more efficient than tagging the back of first. Everytime I hear one of these things I think, “I never knew that and it’s so logical.”
This is exactly the kind of stuff I wanted to bring to baseball fans. It makes any game fascinating. There’s so much more going on out there than we knew.
Thanks to Russ Morman and all the other ballplayers and coaches who have taken the time to explain the game they’re playing. They want us to understand.
And don’t worry, soon enough I’ll be posting every day. I’m not sure when we’ll start that up, but I’m going to spring training for the last two weeks and I’m sure I’ll be writing all the time by then.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 3 months agoLooking forward to when we are discussing current games again. That means the season has started. You better post everyday in Surprise, or the Star may think you are just on a paid vacation.
Scott Ford
1 year, 3 months agoMr Judge I have never before written in on any website before but I must tell you yours is the best and most informative reading I have ever read. I applaud you for bringing your reading to the masses. I truly appreciate and look forward to your insight and cant wait to read about the royals the reat of the year. great job and thanks for doing the articles.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoLarry: Congressmen calls those “fact-finding missions.” Maybe I can get away with the same thing in Surprise.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoScott: Thank you. I’m very fortunate to have access to the players and coaches and even more fortunate that they’re willing to explain the game in detail. Glad you’re enjoying it.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 3 months agoLee, so many nuggets of knowledge it must be read twice. But like diamonds in the rough all are appreciated. Thanks for bringing the knowledge even if in this case it’s really coming from Mr Russ Morman.
I’m curious to learn what small changes Billy Butler has tweaked to continue to add backspin when he makes contact. Butler is an amazing line drive hitter who obviously has power to spare by virtue of his gap hits that one-hop or bounce off the wall. He’s said in past interviews that he continues to work on getting more backspin and it seemed to pay off after the all-star break. I have a feeling he’s gonna be the breakout offensive player for Kansas City this year. I’m very pleased with his offensive progress along with his defensive efforts in the outfield. If he can find a way to play 60+ games in the field it will only improve his value. He’s definitely established himself as a professional hitter. Hopefully he can take the next step so he can one day be compared to Edgar Martinez or Frank Thomas.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoBrian: Twenty years ago I still loved baseball, but thought it was slow at times. After learning just some of what professional ballplayers and coaches know, I now think there are so many things happening on the field, there’s no way to watch them all.
After we posted this, I realized we hadn’t even mentioned the running game and the effect slide steps can have on what happens at the plate.
There’s always something else to write about.
As for Billy Butler: he told me he had a tendency to use too much top hand in his swing. It gets complicated, but that can result in putting top-spin (12 to 6 o’clock) on the ball. In Billy’s case, that results in one or two-hop bullets on the ground.
Last season, working with hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, Billy raised his hands in his stance so he was hitting down through the baseball and that resulted in backspin (6 to 12 o’clock). Backspin gives the ball that rising line drive trajectory.
The team wanted to see Billy trade some average for some power and he complied. So it will be interesting to see what results Billy gets with a full season of that approach. Just remember how tough it is to hit home runs in Kauffman, 30 represents a hell of a season. Doubles are another matter.
I’d be surprised if Billy plays 60+ games in the field, though. The Royals have a very good defensive first baseman in Eric Hosmer and as long as he’s healthy, Billy’s time on defense will be limited.
You might be on target with the Billy Butler-Edgar Martinez comparison: I’ve heard several plays make the same one.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoIn the last line of the previous post I’m pretty sure I meant “players” not “plays.” That’s what I get for posting comments after two beers and an Irish coffee.
Sean Fite
1 year, 3 months agoi just got back from a week in the Dominican Republic teaching baseball clinics to kids of all ages. this was my 2nd year to do this, but my first year to add some of the info i’ve learned from you on this blog. i taught the outfield clinic and was able to share with the kids how the Royals approached getting the ball in low to the infield, which allowed them to lead the league in outfield assists. this created a Major League “connection” and while the older kids were much more talented than me, they now were very interested in what was being taught.
the group of 12 youth league coaches i went with are now reading your blog to add great info to their arsenal.
just wanted to thank you for your blog, and let you know that your research has now reached the Dominican! by the way, the last day, we worked with the Trinitarios which was Albert Pujols’ team when he was a kid, and we met a 17 year old that the Royals are currently scouting.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoSean: Thanks for posting that comment. That’s awesome. The players and coaches spend time talking with me because they love the game and want to pass it along. They feel like the fine points get ignored all too often and they appreciate anyone who shows interest in how the game is actually played.
The fact that their knowledge is being shared with coaches in the Dominican Republic is very gratifying. I’ll pass that news along.
Chris Hawkins
1 year, 3 months agoYou’re right. A hitting coach and former player knows more about hitting mechanics than the rest of us, but I don’t think you should make blanket statements about former players knowing more about the game than we do. Because of modern baseball thinking, many people who study the game that haven’t played since 8th grade know a lot more about strategy than former players (and current players). One example is how to use batter/pitcher splits. Major league managers always screw this up. Perhaps most famous is Joe Girardi with his notebook he has. He sometimes relies on very small samples of batter v. pitcher data, which distorts his decisions. When he should let the better hitter hit, he sometimes hits the other guy who hit a home run off that pitcher once before.
Just one example. A lot of the things I’m talking about are managerial in nature, but not all. I actually disagree with the idea that striking out looking with RISP is a major mistake. I think it depends on the situation (inning, count, score, etc.). But there are definitely situations (early in the game, close game, 3-2 count, etc.) where I would prefer the hitter to react. If the pitch is really bad or really good, then it’s not a problem. But if the hitter thinks it’s a ball, but it could be close (and he normally shows good plate discipline) then I would want him to take that pitch and get another runner.
Good post. Just my critique of a couple things.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“He sometimes relies on very small samples of batter v. pitcher data, which distorts his decisions.”
Sample size is always tough, on the one hand the very small sample of what a particular pitcher does against a particular hitter and how both the pitcher and hitter have been performing generally in the last few weeks; on the other hand an irrelevantly large sample size of that hitter against that handed pitcher over a career or an even more irrelevant sample of, for instance, all RHPs v LHB. Coaches and managers generally try to get as specific as possible and even are forced to look at what the on-deck hitter can do against the current or possible replacement pitcher. For us kibbutzers, the manager will be wrong seven out of ten times at least, no matter what he does in selecting a batter, the opposing manager will be right more than half the time no matter which pitcher he uses.
“But if the hitter thinks it’s a ball, but it could be close (and he normally shows good plate discipline) then I would want him to take that pitch and get another runner.”
Older, established hitters will get more calls than young guys and established pitchers who have been growing the strike zone over a game will get more calls than not on the edges. Alex addressed his change of approach in an earlier column and I agree with it, both because taking an unnecessary KO is a wasted at bat, but also because fouling off borderline pitches drains a pitcher’s gas tank and gets him out of the game early. Of course, I was raised on the two-strike expanded ‘zone and believe that sometimes the only way to beat a dominant pitcher is to put together a lot of ten pitch at-bats. Get the guy to 120 pitches in six innings and take your chances with the ‘pen.
Good post, valid points.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoChris: Feel free to disagree (you already have), but I find it unlikely that people who do it for a hobby know more than the people who do it for a living.
I suppose it’s possible that a guy who’s read some medical books knows more medicine than a doctor, but the odds aren’t good.
As Jim Fetterolf pointed out in his post, a manager who makes a move that doesn’t make sense from your point of view probably knows more than you do, not less. (Although Jim said it in a much nicer way.)
I can’t speak for every move made by every manager since the beginning of time, but I can say that every time I’ve heard the reasoning behind the move of a manager, coach or player, they not only knew what the public knew, but had additional information.
Sometimes the information had been developed by the team and the team doesn’t want it made public. Sometimes, as Jim pointed out, the information came from advance scouts who were able to assess how a player was going right now (as opposed to the long haul). And sometimes the information comes from the stats guys many teams employ (they count numbers,too.) If a manager is not making the percentage move, most of the time he has specific information.
Because of “modern baseball thinking” Bill James suggested that the Boston Red Sox use a “closer by committee” system. It was perfectly logical: why designate someone to throw the 9th when he might be needed in the 7th? Why designate a closer when another pitcher might have better matchup numbers with the hitters coming to the plate?
Like I said, completely logical and a complete disaster. It ignored human nature and how pitchers mentally prepare. It turned every game into a disorganized fire drill in the bullpen.
Bill James is an undeniably smart guy and has come up with some smart ideas; this wasn’t one of them. He made this mistake because he doesn’t play and thought he knew more about strategy than current and former players.
I don’t know what you do for a living, but I assume you would find it laughable if a baseball player thought he could do it better than you. Whatever you do, if you’ve done it for a while, you’ve gained experience that no one could get from reading a book or a web site or thinking about it in their spare time.
I believe the same holds true for professional baseball players and coaches. It doesn’t mean someone can’t cook up a good idea, but just like a smart military planner who dreams up a line of attack while sitting at his desk in the Pentagon, we would all do well to listen to the people who are out there actually fighting the battle.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“we would all do well to listen to the people who are out there actually fighting the battle.”
The first casualty of war is the plan.
In defense of the non-specific closer, I catch myself thinking that if Greg Holland comes on in the 8th for two batters and shuts them down, I probably would send him back out in the 9th as he’s warm and knows what he has working for him. With him, Broxton, Soria, and Herrera, Ned Yost has good coverage and could do something similar every night, play the hot hand.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoJim: I think what you’re suggesting is logical, but has the same drawback as the James’ plan: people perform better when they’re comfortable and they know what’s expected of them.
Let’s say Holland goes out for the 8th, does Soria get up? And if Soria gets up, is he coming in the game? Does Soria prepare in the same way if there’s some doubt about him pitching?
Does Holland throw the same way if he’s only facing two batters? Does he save something if he thinks he may have to go five batters? And does saving something make him less effective against the first two?
One of the things I learned the hard way: players perform better when you ask them to do something they’ve done a lot. They’re comfortable, they’ve experienced this situation many times. Throw them into a new situation and here’s no telling what will happen…at least until they get comfortable in the new situation.
But if the situation changes every night they never get comfortable.
I’m not arguing that nobody should ever try anything new; the game continually changes. The way relievers are used now is totally different than they were used just a few years back.
For me the bottom line is whatever strategy people outside the lines dream up, they need to listen to the guys between the lines. They’re the ones that have to carry the game plan out.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoVery good points, Lee, but the idea of Holland continuing to the 9th crossed my mind a couple of times last year when he only threw six or eight pitches to finish an inning, then Soria came in for the 9th. Just trying to maximize the ‘pen when none of our starters will make it through the 7th very often and we’ll probably see a lot of real close games.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoHow the bullpen shakes out will be one of the more interesting topics this season. Yost said he never designated Crow the set-up man last year, so maybe he’s more inclined to see things your way than mine.
I’d like to spend more time talking with Ned about how he likes to manage. His use of the pen would be a good topic.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoPart of this is my old-school background on this that dates back to Elroy Face. In the modern day, I look more at match-ups in the late innings and think highly of the “fireman”, the guy that comes in with two on and no outs and gets you out of the inning, the high leverage guy. The way I look at it, the best reliever is the guy who comes in then and keeps the team in the game. That may be the rational for the “closer” as 9th inning specialist, a starter in a one inning game. You may be right after all. Never mind:)
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoSome of it depends on personality. That’s why a good utility guy is so valuable; he’s not thrown by facing different situations every night. Of course, if he does it long enough, that becomes normal as well.
But I think most players thrive on routine, whatever that is. If they’re the left-handed reliever, they’ve got a good idea of when they’ll be used and prepare accordingly. Same with long relief, the 8th innning set-up guy or the closer.
I just read Tim Wakefield’s book (which is where I got the Bill James’ story) and he talked about the frustration of not knowing when he was going to be called and what was expected. (Being a knuckleballer they could pitch him on short rest or use to him out of the pen.) Wakefield said there were times he was thrown into a game and didn’t feel ready to pitch.
Wakefield thought the bullpen by committee approach was a mistake and believed if someone had asked him, he could’ve told them it wasn’t going to work.
Of course, if Quiz was still around the Royals could just give him the ball anytime they got in trouble after the 7th and sit and watch him close things out.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoPerhaps the problem with the Bill James idea was that it was a top down decision based on theory rather than a bottom up idea based on personalities and realities.
Danny Duffy once said, “I can be ready in 30 minutes, I’m pretty microwavable.” He has the type of mentality and arm that can go anywhere. Perhaps Jack Soria still has more of the starter mentality, is more comfortable with routine. Greg Holland has the fireman make-up, “Give me the ball and get off the mound. Any time, any where.” Aaron Crow also showed that, he was downright eager to get out there and make Tori Hunter look like a little leaguer in his first appearance. Psychology is something that can’t be quantified, yet is something a manager must know and be able to use, along with how quickly a guy can get ready and whether he can be “dry-humped”, great phrase from Clint Hurdle, or can only warm up once a night.
A suggestion or two, since we’re on the subject: you know Jeff Montgomery, maybe you could interview him, talk about this stuff and grips and how a pitcher goes about reinventing himself. I’ld like to hear Master Chen talk about that stuff too and maybe give a little insight into repeatable mechanics with three arm angles, six pitches, and being able to take speed off a pitch while making it look like it’s thrown hard. I watched some video of Jon Sanchez, watched the angle, arm speed, and release point and couldn’t tell at release what the pitch would be.
Getting an odd urge to buy a new bat and go over to Mac-N-Seitz for an hour in the cage and a swing lesson. As a chubby 60 year old, haven’t swung a bat since 1991, but feel like giving it a try. Would they even let me in? My wife will have a fit if I drop 80 bucks on a Louisville Slugger.
Phil King
1 year, 3 months agoI don’t think that Chen’s cutter is the key to his current success. In his career Chen has fared better against righties over lefties. In 2010 Chen still fared better against righties over lefties. This past season Chen was much better with lefties and mildly worse against righties over the 2010 season. One thing I can point to, is that he walks fewer right-handers over left-handed hitters by a noticeable margin over the past two seasons. Of course over his career he has walked fewer right-handed hitters over lefties; however, over the past two seasons he has almost doubled the margin.
His home/away splits are very confusing. I looked at his home/away splits and wondered why his home slash numbers (.268/.328/.429) are so much worse than on the road (.247/.313/.380) but yet his ERA was slightly better at home than on the road (3.76 versus 3.79). I honestly don’t know, Chen confuses the hell out of me.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoJim: Knowing your player’s personalities is a big part of it. Having a good idea of what makes them tick allows a manager to put them in a “position to succeed.” Asking a guy to do something he isn’t comfortable doing is a recipe for failure.
Your suggestions for talking to the pitchers are good ones and I’ll try to follow up. Getting to know the players takes a while: you talk to one guy and he has a good experience and then another guy is willing to open up.
As for your trip to Mac ‘N’ Seitz: if they’ll let me in, they’ll let anybody in. They have bats there you can use (pretty old and beat up), but better than buying a bat if it’s a one-time thing.
I still find BP a lot of fun and good exercise.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoPhil: Fortunately, you’re not the only one that finds Bruce Chen confusing. Bruce told me the two major changes he made were the cutter and dropping down. Whether it’s that pitch or the arm angle, I couldn’t say. And there’s probably some other factors that have contributed to his recent success.
Russ Morman’s hadn’t seen Chen in a while, but his point was the cutter allows Chen to go inside on righties even with low velocity. It’s a nice club to have in the bag.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“His home/away splits are very confusing.”
I was in a discussion the other day about Master Chen, the other guy made the claim that Chen benefited greatly from “pitching in spacious Kaufman Stadium” and he would “get killed” in normal stadiums. For our readers, when we talk about splits and other stats, we need sources. Here’s the one I use for Chen’s splits:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=chenbr01&year=2011&t=p
For whatever odd reason, Master Chen is quite a bit better on the road. My guess is that hitters are comfortable at home and get into habits based on that park, so it is easier for Bruce to work against those patterns.
Phil King
1 year, 3 months agoOver Chen’s Royal career, he’s actually been slightly worse on the road, in terms of ERA. Of course, that’s skewed by in ‘09 when Chen got shelled on the road. His 2010 home/away splits showed that he was unlucky at home (.326 BABIP) and really lucky on the road (.231 BABIP) which skews it yet again. Chen does benefit by pitching in the K with allowing home runs. His HR/9 is 0.91 at home in the past two seasons and 1.22 on the road. And I did it to myself again, the more I look up Chen’s numbers, the more I think he’s a ticking time bomb.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoJim and Phil: I think it’s awesome that this web site has progressed to the point that you guys can have an argument without me. (Although “argument” might be a little strong, let’s go with “lively discussion.”)
While you’re trying to decipher Bruce Chen, don’t overlook who he faced. If there’s a team that has a particularly good or bad approach against him and he missed that team because of time on the DL, that would change the numbers, also. (And I have no idea if that actually happened.)
Also, Chen does better when the umpire gives him a generous zone. Of course, all pitchers do better when the umpire gives them a generous zone, but being forced into the middle of the zone without great stuff may hurt Chen more than another pitcher.
Figuring this stuff out is complicated, there are so many possible factors. Glad I’m not a GM; I have enough trouble figuring out what has happened, much less what will happen.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“His HR/9 is 0.91 at home in the past two seasons and 1.22 on the road.”
And last year the splits were closer, 9hr home and away, away being on a about 10% smaller sample size as I remember.
Master Chen is, to me, still a work in progress and that makes him hard to quantify over a very long time period or even two or three latest years, the evolution from a power pitcher to a broken pitcher to a comeback pitcher who apparently is capable of learning all the time and able to make adjustments, including a cutter that jams righties. I hope the new FieldFX equipment will help us understand the Crafty One by showing that fewer balls are hit hard off of him and that fewer balls are hit away from how the defense is playing. An off-balance hitter fisting a limp LD directly to the 2nd baseman now only really shows up in BABIP. Supposedly the new equipment will give velocity and vector relative to the fielder, which will tell us much more about the pitcher.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 3 months agoBruce has become a smart pitcher. He is a master at keeping the batter of balance. I think on the road where the hitter is in front of his home team fans, Chen uses their agressiviness against them. No one wants to walk most of the time. Whereas when at the K, because of the size, he can challenge batters a little more. I think he gets into their heads a little when they start to struggle against his blinding 85 mph fast ball. I know it drove Ozzie and the Sox crazy.
Lee, you are correct in that Bruce has to get the border calls, he cannot be successful if the umpire squeezes him into the middle of the plate.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months agoFor the BABIP fans I would note that in his career, in seasons wherein Bruce Chen pitched over 100 innings, signifying that he was reasonably healthy, his highest BABIP was .279. That’s about 6 seasons of “luck”.
“Lee, you are correct in that Bruce has to get the border calls, he cannot be successful if the umpire squeezes him into the middle of the plate.”
Larry, one reason I expect Chen to do well this year is Sal Perez, who is a big catcher with a reputation for framing pitches well. That allows a pitcher to stretch the strike zone over a game.
Phil King
1 year, 3 months agoWell since Chen is a flyball pitcher, I don’t think anyone is too worried that his career BABIP of .279 is the result of luck. If it was something stupid low like .230, then start waving red flags.
“And last year the splits were closer, 9hr home and away, away being on a about 10% smaller sample size as I remember.”
Had Chen allowed one more home run on the road his HR/9 would have been 1.22. When dealing with home runs, it’s best to have the largest possible sample size. I only reason I didn’t include his ‘09 season is because it is believed the improvement occurred over the past two seasons.
“If there’s a team that has a particularly good or bad approach against him and he missed that team because of time on the DL, that would change the numbers, also.”
Had he made his scheduled starts he would have missed NYY, CLE, STL, TEX, LAA, TOR, LAA, & STL. Three starts against sub-par offenses (CLE, LAA X2), two stars against elite offenses (NYY, TEX), one start against an above average offense (TOR), and two against the best offense in the National League (STL X2). Out of those teams he didn’t face STL, got shelled by LAA and TEX, lucky he didn’t allow more runs against NYY, pitched much better than the three runs he allowed against TOR, and did legit well against CLE. To me it looks like a mixed-bag or Chen was fortunate to miss those games against those offenses.
I seriously spent 40 minutes researching this? I might need a better hobby.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“I seriously spent 40 minutes researching this? I might need a better hobby.”
Thumbs up:)
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoPhil: Better you than me, but thanks for looking up those starts. It helps demonstrate how many things go into a player’s performance. Deciphering all those factors: who he pitched against, who was catching him, who was behind him on defense, who was the umpire, was he completely healthy, etc., etc., is complicated.
A running theme on this site is that one number does not tell you the complete story. And analyzing all the numbers is difficult. Even then, you still won’t know everything.
When we were watching the game, Russ Morman mentioned how most centerfield cameras are set slightly to the right of the mound so the shot includes the pitcher and batter. That angle can be deceptive. When they finally showed a straight on angle of a pitch, Russ said Chen had a lot of movement on the ball.
So there’s another element: what do your eyes tell you? Russ’s eyes told him Chen had a lot of movement and his cutter was allowing him to get in on right-handers while throwing 82 mph.
Isn’t that where we started?
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoJim: You made an interesting point about Perez’ size. In one of the videos Matt Treanor made with me, he said that umpires use the catcher’s knees to call balls and strikes: if the ball is between the knees, it must be a strike.
Treanor then said a smart catcher learns how to make a subtle shift that keeps the ball inside the knees. That size should help Perez with this move (if anyone’s taught him that trick).
That size and those knees may also be a problem; big catchers are hard on their knees and that sometimes shortens their careers. Watching Perez’ weight might be informative.
Brian Courington
1 year, 3 months agoKind of off topic but I could use a little help here. I will be in AZ for spring training middle of March and was wondering what time do they let people in before the games? Also what else is a must see/do in Phoenix?
Thanks
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 3 months ago“Treanor then said a smart catcher learns how to make a subtle shift that keeps the ball inside the knees.”
The other thing the pitcher can do and the catcher finish is to aim for the plate side of the glove so that the glove is moving slightly into the plate when the ball is received. The glove moving away from the plate says “Ball” to the umpire, the glove moving to the plate as the ball is framed between the knees gives the ump two reference points that indicate “Strike”, so he can’t really help himself:)
Larry Tindle
1 year, 3 months agoBrian, not sure how soon they let you in but get there during the day and go to the back fields. You can watch them practice up close and personal. you can probably find the times on the Royals web site. Also there are 13 or more teams within 45 minute drive of Surprise you can go watch.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoBrian: I don’t know what time they let fans into the big stadium for games (I’d think they’d let people know that on their website), but I think they may let fans into the complexes before they open the stadiums.
Most teams have a stadium for the games and several practice fields for other activities. The practice fields are in a cluster so you can walk a very short distance and see activities on four different fields. I’ve been to Surprise and even played on some of the backfields, but don’t recall how they handle the entrance from the parking lot.
If you’re staying in Surprise be aware you’re a ways outside Phoenix and vice versa. My time in Phoenix has mainly been spent playing baseball, so I wouldn’t be the best tour guide.
I’d just say watch a lot of baseball and eat a lot of Mexican food and you can’t go wrong.
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoLarry: Thanks for getting there ahead of me. I actually find the back field workouts more instructive than the games. You can see what these guys have to do to stay competitive.
The players are generally very friendly, but be aware they’re on a schedule. They can’t stop a workout to sign, but sometimes they’ll stop between fields. Just be aware that when they leave one field they may be due on another shortly.
Derek Taylor
1 year, 3 months agoLee, I hope you don’t mind me getting a little off topic as well, but I had a question and I didn’t know where else I might be able to get it answered. I read most of the Star’s sports blogs, but only two religiously - yours and Upon Further Review. A couple of days ago, Martin Manley stopped posting on UFR, and I wa wondering if you had any insight as to whether this was temporary or permanent? Any info would be appreciated.
P.S. Great article as always, can’t wait for the spring training pieces!
Lee Judge
1 year, 3 months agoDerek: Thanks, I’m glad you’re enjoying both web sites. I don’t have any information on Martin Manley and Upon Further Review, but I’ll ask around.
Derek Taylor
1 year, 3 months agoThanks! My curiosity was getting out of control…